Jobs Has Sold His 10 Million iPhones

by: Joel West October 22, 2008 | about stocks: AAPL    

Joel West

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Yesterday’s earnings call reported that Apple (AAPL) sold 6.89 million iPhones in its FY2008 4th quarter ending Sept. 27. According to the Merc,, the iPhone was the US leader for smartphone sales during that period, surpassing the BlackBerry.

This figure is slightly below the estimates of the biggest iPhone boosters, and totals only 9.3 million phones for the year. However, MacWorld reports that Apple has confirmed that it passed the 10 million mark in the past few weeks after the end of the quarter. This means that with the Christmas season their 2008 sales should easily surpass 12 million units.

Before the iPhone was released, many (notably including Steve Ballmer) predicted they would not hit 10 million. As I suspected, Jobs was sandbagging by making a prediction he knew he could make.

This is still a very small part of the picture. There’s been almost no discussion of international sales since the iPhone 3G was introduced. Given past iPod sales, I suspect that the iPhone 3G is not going to make a dramatic change in the US vs. overseas sales, and that the iPhone fad is still very much an American phenomenon.

Disclosure: No positions

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This article has 17 comments:

  •  
    Oct 22 02:46 PM
    Hi, are you kidding me that iPhone is only an american phenom. Have you travle outside of the US. Have you been to asia, especially China. I personally have filled orders for over 1,000 first gen iphone and they are still coming in for 3G orders to be filled. there's an estimated 700k iphone in china with price tag of over 700 dollars. What do you think is going to happen once apple start selling there at a price less then 700. Are you for real, Joel.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 02:52 PM
    I just came back from several Caribbean and Central American countries. The iPhone was everywhere, and that includes the locals, not just the tourists.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 03:01 PM
    I have spent part of my summers in Italy every year since 1994. This June - before the 3G was released in that country - I saw several unlocked 1st-generation iPhones. Legitimate sales are a no-brainer in that country, and I would expect the same in most of Europe.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 03:20 PM
    Joel, you should do a little more research before making lame prognostications about the iPhone's success overseas. If you had bothered to read AT&T's earnings report (Apple's exclusive US partner) you would have seen that AT&T payed Apple subsidies for 2.4 million iPhones. 6.89 - 2.4 = 4.49 million iPhones sold overseas. That's nearly a 2 to 1 margin. And with the iPhone available in 56 countries other than the US. And Apple has already announced plans to sell it in an additional 23 countries soon. If that's what you call an American phenomenom, I'd like to know what you would consider a worldwide phenomenom!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 03:55 PM
    I_do_my_research is absolutely correct in that the majority of iPhones sold in the past quarter were destined to non US shores.

    If you had taken time to both do your sums and listen to Tim Cook's careful statements on Channel Fill, you could have come up with a highly informative article which could have built your reputation.

    On the subject of Apple, there are far to many writers and some bone-fide journalists either shooting from the hip or more disturbingly in the pay of a third party, writing to the order of a well known organization based on a 75 page briefing which I have seen. I am retaining author names and copies of those articles I believe to be tainted. There are News Agencies on my list also and this I find totally unacceptable.

    You and this article are on my list. I give you the benefit of the doubt and have ticked the "shooting from the hip" column.

    Please try to get your facts straight in future and bring us enlightenment and yourself an enhanced reputation.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 04:09 PM
    As soon as I heard the demo 2G model actually worked in the hands of trusted tech reviewers in Jan 2007 just after the 2007 MacWorld event, I knew 10 million would be easy.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 04:19 PM

    I AM SPEECHLESS. To even fathom the idea that this guy gets paid to post such RUBISH!!!!!!

    I will be blunt. Joel YOU ARE AN IDIOT!

    iJah420 says GET A LIFE!!!! Won't happen to Joel being that ugly. DOH!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 04:56 PM
    It is easy in hindsight to say the 10 Million phones forecast was sandbagging. But there were alot of folks that said "no way" - where are they now? They are quiet because he made it - but if he did not there would be a thousand experts telling us now they KNEW it was not possible to enter the saturated market and get 10M. I think Jobs knew his product was good, but that does not assure market success. Just look what happened with Windows and Betamax.

    He did not sandbag, but he knew he might hit a home run. But you only do that 10% of the time when you are lucky. OK, Jobs is a star and his ratio is much better...but there was no assurance.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 22 05:17 PM
    Joel, Perhaps you forgot that Jobs said he would sell 10M by the end of 2008 when the 1st generation iPhone came out. By my count, 6.1M (Edge) + 6.9M (3G) = 13M with 3 months to go!
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 01:38 AM
    Contrary to your many protestations that you are an expert, you really know very little about Apple, its products and its markets. Why do you pollute the ether with your ignorance? There is enough of that already.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 10:07 AM
    Facts speak for themselves, and if Joel has a point at all with this, it's only that the iPhone is indeed just getting started worldwide. This has growth written all over it, it's not that expensive, and it's a very useful item even though it does scare people like Joel, writing for the Microsoft types.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 11:35 AM
    i agree with Brewer... in the past, Apple was ignored, like it didn't count in the marketplace. it's unavoidable now! the companies that just laughed when Apple said it was opening the iTunes store...the doom and gloomers who said Apple could never get into the 'cell phone' business at this late date, the people who said Apple computers would never be in business settings are the very people who are still rather clueless. there are a lot of them but they're learning, slowly, as they cling to the past as tightly as possible. it's a big world out there and Apple is and will continue to be a big part of it.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 12:24 PM
    Joel,

    Ouch! You really blew it here.

    Better luck next time.

    Practice. Practice. Practice.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 01:38 PM
    As many have pointed out, not only did Apple make the 10M figure in 2008, they also activated 2.4M units in the US, leaving 2.5M for the ROW. That's a 50-50 split between US and ROW activations.

    As for your 12M total this year, I think 5M units in Xmas is the conservative figure, based upon Apple's past performance with the EDGE iPhone and iPod. The aggressive figure would be 10M units for Xmas. That would put 2008 totals in the 15M to 20M range.
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 05:22 PM
    What an idiot !
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 08:49 PM
    iPhone sales weren't t below my estimate-6.8M for Q4 end 9/27

    apple20.blogs.fortune..../

    But as I had predicted, Apple surpassed 10M not long after

    financial-alchemist.bl...
    Reply | Link to Comment
  •  
    Oct 23 09:12 PM
    RE: "I suspect that the iPhone 3G is not going to make a dramatic change in the US vs. overseas sales, and that the iPhone fad is still very much an American phenomenon."

    Joel, this is your second post is as many weeks where you have been clearly clueless. The iPhone is not just a US phenomenon. What planet do you live on?
    Reply | Link to Comment
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