Ominous for the Globe but Good News for Oil Bulls
The world woke up today to the scare that Russia may use its oil as a weapon. In addition to the geological peak oil thesis that I have espoused before, this Russia development is a form of the political peak oil thesis, which Fabius Maximus has been beating the drums on for some time in his blog.
Another example of political peaking occurred in April 2008, where
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations…
This “we want to keep the oil for ourselves” policy would exacerbate any shortages, especially if it started spreading to other countries (Brazil, Mexico, Norway, Canada, etc.) The Saudis have already indicated that they want to diversify away from oil. While we’ve heard that before, combined with the April 2008 announcement it may be an indication that they are preparing for a time when the oil runs out.
These developments are long-term bullish for the oil price. In the short term, however, oil appears to be undergoing a relief rally from an oversold condition from storms in the Gulf of Mexico and geopolitical considerations – I would be less inclined to chase it here.
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This article has 54 comments:
- JasonC
- 342 Comments
Aug 29 04:05 PMwon't put this bubble back together again.
At least prices, demand halfs every decade.
If the tyrants of the world want to keep their oil instead of selling it for north of $100, they are free to do so. They will lose. Huge.
- William S
- 3 Comments
Aug 29 04:13 PM- ValueInvestor
- 81 Comments
Aug 29 04:28 PMThe fact is, Russia has stopped oil exports on 40 different occasions in the last 10 years for political reasons. This is old news.
The peak oil argument is BS IMO. In the 70's we were told there was only a 15+ year supply of oil in world wide reserves, Well, 30 years later we still have a 15+ year supply. New reserves are found to replace the old ones. Sure they might be unconventional sources, but they're sources nonetheless. Oil Sands and Oil Shale have huge potential and could easily prolong the time before peak-oil hits.
- buyitcheap
- 427 Comments
Aug 29 05:25 PM- captmanning
- 3 Comments
Aug 29 06:34 PM- cjwirth
- 42 Comments
My Website
Aug 29 07:19 PMAccording to energy investment banker Matthew Simmons and most independent analysts, global oil production is now declining, from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time demand will increase 14%.
This is equivalent to a 33% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment.
Surviving Peak Oil: We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.
This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: www.peakoilassociates....
I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. survivingpeakoil.blogs.../
- mkreisel
- 272 Comments
Aug 29 07:20 PMBut over the long term, they will become big losers.
But when it comes to strategic oil hoarding, no country trumps the US who locks away large part of its territory under the disguise of "environmental protection".
- barnburner
- 75 Comments
Aug 29 07:58 PM- otbricki
- 91 Comments
Aug 29 09:24 PMBeyond this are oil shales and coal gasification. Shale oil reserves in just the US exceed current total world oil reserves. And we have enough coal in the US to supply energy needs for at least 1000 years.
- X-15
- 58 Comments
Aug 29 11:43 PMNo energy plan -- no FUTURE
- $HARK&PAUL
- 3 Comments
Aug 30 06:19 AMThe Oil is looking for a new bottom and no Gustav,Katrina,Rita,Wa... in Iran,Peak Oil will not stop it,every bubble have it's course why Oil can not be a bubble.Maybe there is not enough Oil at 40-50$ a barrel but at 115$ there is more than anyone can think.
If one watches the daily real time streaming Oil graph,one can see that overnight Oil goes up and up on slim volume,then pit opens with big orders flowing,it takes Oil another 1-1.50$ up,then on small volume every buyer is filled,filled,filled it brings Oil back 1-1.5$ then there are big egos (those that soon will liquidate their hedge funds) are buying and big volume appears again,it increases,increases,in... but strangely price moves few cents up an down AND THEN big guys enter the pit and say:Who is cool here?,show me the biggest buyer today of Oil,everybody points to some hedgies out there who buy on margin,then big guys say:Fill all the order book from here 3$ down immediately,I want everybody be filled at any price and then BOOM,BANG,the 1-minute bar chart looks like somebody placed an ATOMIC BOMB on the pit.
No doubt there is fight of egos going there,but the sellers know the real supply/demand situation,they were long Oil before,they made billions,now they simply are going to make billions on the short side.
If one thinks that in a world heading for a biggest crash since 1929 demand for Oil/Gas/Gold/Platinum, mining stocks,Intel,Motorola,... Valley wine,Champagne,Caviar,...
is going to increase,one at least must be CRAZY.
The DOW JONES 9000 by September-October 2008,August 2009 7000-7500 maximum and then why not 6000 and you all think China or India that depend on the West will buy Gold/Oil/Patek Philippe/Palladium by then,you are really all nuts.
I hope you buy Oil/Gas/Gold/Russell as macro needs somebody to sell.
- philly jim
- 117 Comments
Aug 30 06:38 AMAs for peak oil theory, I'd have to say this weapon against the masses is more futile than Herbert Spencer but don't count of Chavezism to save us all. Capitalists need something new to replace oil and until it proves profitable long-term, we are stuck burning it. Remember, capitalism and multi-national corporations owe zero allegiance to any nation and could care less who is profiting/hurting and what they are doing with their profits from oil. So, to jump start the transition, we definitely would need real political leadership and tough action.
- paulk8756
- 919 Comments
Aug 30 10:00 AMLook around you. OIL is a major component in virtually EVERY product you see or use OUTSIDE of transportation.
And there are BILLIONS of people across the world who are feverishly working to emulate our lifestyles as we speak.
It's "Black Gold!" nickname is appropriate and well deserved.
- Ernie Montague
- 174 Comments
Aug 30 10:12 AMShale oil? Hello. Do some research on what is involved. It's not shale oil, it's soft rock with some petroleum in it. It's NOT OIL. Oil sands? Any idea how much water and energy THAT takes?
Coal? Wake up to one fact. The US and world economy is completely dependent on OIL. A shortage slows the economy. Coal is not oil. The infrastructure to liquify it does not exist. You can not run cars on coal.
15-20 years and we are energy independent? "Dreaming, I am always dreaming." Try 40-60. The infrastructure of alternatives that will replace the current oil based infrastructure is HUGE HUGE HUGE.
Don't look for oil usage to disappear. It won't. Look for a gradual transition if we are lucky and worldwide depression if we are not. Sell that SUV.
- yank
- 87 Comments
My Website
Aug 30 11:07 AMExcellent points. Although the oil sands do consume enormous amounts of water and nat gas the undeniable fact is that after Saudi Arabia it's the second largest reserves in the world. You think the Canadians will cease production just because it takes a lot of "stuff" to mine the sands? Not a chance. Bottom line:
1. Huge reserves in oil sands.
2. Located in a politically safe country close to the USA.
End result: those reserves are priceless.
- bigtime99
- 16 Comments
Aug 30 11:54 AM- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 12:14 PM- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 12:18 PM- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 12:23 PMAug 30 12:00 PM
.*. Hydro, wood, coal, biofuels and solar and were not priced in you work-up. Animal power, "ancient" farm windmills and tidal are also missing.
I'm not sure putting conservation on the source side is valid.
And further, you just proved that we should tax energy as Europe, et.al.. has to drive the US to conserve, electric trains, small cars, electrric delivery vans, scooters, much insulation, district heating; and co-generation, more hydro, more nuclear, more wind, more solar; and less drill, drill, drill and less dig, dig, dig.
Bottom line - create change thru taxation, not stupid policy, lobbiests, selfishness and graft.
And furthermore, taxation or lack of it (tax breaks, subsidies, R&D credits, depletion allowances, etc.,) is exactly how we favor oil, gas, coal, nuc, hydro, biofuels, etc., and we are refusing to do the same for wind and solar which are the only two really free energy, renewable, forever energy sources in the list.
Problem is: policy setters are controlled by their selfish needs, lobbiests, and whomever is paying the lobbiests; THEY ARE NOT REAL LEADERS!!!
- css1971
- 52 Comments
My Website
Aug 30 12:25 PMe.g. if you get 100 times more energy from a Saudi oil well than you put in to get it, only about 1% of the population need to be involved in the energy sector. Everyone else can do other stuff.
Coal, 30:1, about 3% of the population will have to be involved with mining coal.
Oil Shale: 8:1 about 12% of the population will have to do nothing but mine shale.
Corn ethanol 1.3:1. Basically everyone but the rich will be out in the fields farming corn simply to survive.
- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 12:27 PM- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 12:45 PMOn the consumption side say transportation, where we again throw away 70% of the energy, we again need only 30% of the energy solution and its infrastructure - like 1/3 the fueling stations; or beefing up the electric infrastructure 50% and do nothing but electric trains, trolleys, and hybrids.
So artificially bump the cost of energy source (policy, taxes, embargos, geopolitical stuff) while we have the irreplaceable and the use of energy will be examined thoroughly and decent solutions (alternatives) will be provided.
- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 12:47 PM- Realsit
- 72 Comments
Aug 30 12:52 PMwould do well to get its energy from sensible places and think
imaginatively about where those places might be," Energy Minister
Malcolm Wicks told BBC's Newsnight.
"There is a huge global grab for energy going on. We've got to make
sure that Britain is protected; that we have the energy we need..."
Tuesday, 26 August 2008 00:04 UK
Global warming is opening the Northwest Passage that sailing ships
sought 500 years ago, and some of the world's biggest oil reserves are becoming accessible under the polar sea. Russia, the U.S., Canada, Norway and Denmark are jockeying for territory in moves that could end up in clashing claims.
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
There's a global grab for oil going on at a fervent pace because of the 2 main factors the author mentioned:
1) geopolitical and 2.) geological peak oil.
Since Mr. Putin became president, the Russian government has
renationalized much of the energy sector; it now owns 50% of the
country's oil reserves and 89% of the gas reserves.
Beyond ownership, the Kremlin has positioned high-ranking government officials and other Putin-loyalists -- elites in the security services known as siloviki (men of power) -- to key positions in leading Russian companies, even while they keep their government jobs. In particular, Russian state-owned natural gas monopoly Gazprom has had its eye on TNK-BP – and not just for the firm’s natural gas assets. Gazprom has already stripped TNK-BP of its crown jewel – the Kovykta natural gas field – in a deal that left BP with a mere quarter stake in the field. But this did not satisfy Gazprom, which has long been positioning itself to take over the entire company, a move that would double Gazprom’s oil holdings.
From the Caspian Sea to South America, Western oil companies are being squeezed out of resource-rich provinces. They are being forced to renegotiate contracts on less-favorable terms and are fighting losing battles with assertive state-owned oil companies.
And much of their production is in mature regions that are declining,
like the North Sea. The reality, experts say, is that the oil giants that once dominated the global market have lost much of their influence — and with it, their ability to increase supplies.
“This is an industry in crisis,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, the associate
director of Rice University’s energy program in Houston....
www.nytimes.com/2008/0...
Supply-demand fundamentals that drive oil prices have actually
gotten worse:
• "2 out of 5 human beings are Indians and Chinese … 2.4 billion people. Last year, China’s oil consumption went up by 15%. That means they’re doubling oil consumption every five years, quadrupling it every ten years. And … India … 8%.
Worldwide oil demand continues to grow rapidly in populated China
and India, while economic growth in oil-rich Russia, Mexico and even
Iran has those nations keeping more of their production to themselves.
Economic growth means more oil-gulping industry and many more cars; later this year Tata Motors' will bring its low-cost "Nano" to market, and millions who now ride bikes or small scooters will be driving cars that require lots of oil to make and still more oil to move.
Consider infrastructure construction growth in China alone:
By 2025, the report predicts that China will have 221 cities with more
than a million inhabitants, compared with 35 in Europe today.
(Demographics is destiny)
McKinsey projects that China will build between 20,000 and 50,000
skyscrapers, many of them in less developed interior provinces far
from Beijing and Shanghai.
“Over the next few years, the Chinese economy will start consuming more than it’s ever consumed. That’s the power of exponentials,” says Simon Ratcliffe, who heads the Association of Peak Oil South Africa (Aspo).
Over half of the world's infrastructure investment is now taking place
in emerging economies, where sales of excavators have risen more than fivefold since 2000. In total, emerging economies are likely to spend an estimated $1.2 trillion on roads, railways, electricity,
telecommunications and other projects this year, equivalent to 6% of
their combined GDPs—twice the average infrastructure-investm... ratio in developed economies.
Morgan Stanley predicts that emerging economies will spend $22
trillion (in today's prices) on infrastructure over the next ten
years, of which China will account for 43% (see left-hand chart).
China is already spending around 12% of its GDP on infrastructure.
Indeed, China has spent more (in real terms) in the past five years
than in the whole of the 20th century. Last year Brazil launched a
four-year plan to spend $300 billion to modernise its road network,
power plants and ports. The Indian government's latest five-year plan
has ambitiously pencilled in nearly $500 billion in infrastructure
projects. Russia, the Gulf states and other oil exporters are all
pouring part of their higher oil revenues into fixed investment.
A whole lot of fossil fuels is needed to make all this possible.
• Despite a rash of media reports that Americans are driving less and
in smaller cars, oil demand in the world's highest energy-consuming
nation has dipped only slightly. The United States still consumes 21
million barrels of oil daily (with 5 percent of world population the
U.S. consumes a quarter of world oil, while China, with 21 percent of
the population, consumes just 8 percent). According to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts, banks, and industry groups, worldwide oil demand should rise by 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to 87.5 million bpd, up from projected growth of 760,000 bpd this year.
"The pace of global oil demand growth should increase in 2009 as rising consumption in emerging markets outweighs declines in developed nations hard hit by the high fuel costs and mounting economic problems.
"We think demand will be slightly lower in OECD countries, but
substantially higher in the developing world. That trend is set to
continue," said Kevin Norrish, analyst at Barclays Capital..."
"...Consumption from emerging economies such as China, which ignited a six-year rally in commodities that sent oil up sevenfold at its peak, should offset OECD losses with gains of 1.2 million bpd to a total of 39.2 million bpd in 2009, the poll forecast.
"We can't find any single year of negative emerging market demand
growth," said Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities research at Merrill Lynch. "While we have started to see some demand growth curtailed in OECD economies, the economic fundamentals in China and other emerging markets support oil at more than $100 a barrel into 2009."
Look at what's happening with our northern neighbors:
A new study says Canadians have been slow to change their driving habits, in spite of higher gasoline prices. Statistics Canada reports Canadians drove their vehicles 332 billion kilometres last year; that's 5.2 per cent more than in 2002. The number of vehicles on the road also rose 9.4 per cent in six years and the agency reports that new motor vehicle sales in the first five months of this year have continued at a record pace.
"People see it in the news every day that U.S. gasoline consumption is
down and it clearly is," said Philip Cross, chief of economic analysis
for Statistics Canada. "They tend to assume that it's happening in
this country and it's not the case. It's a different country with a
much different economy and a different housing market. All these
things contribute to different behaviour by Canadians."
• Present oil supply is of lower quality, which requires more refining. Producing oil is increasingly difficult, time-consuming and costly — Canada, for example, has turned to extracting oil from "tar sands" with a complex heat process that burns so much natural gas that exports are curtailed, helping crimp supply that's driving gas prices in places like Minnesota much higher. World oil production of 85 billion barrels a day is seen by some analysts as unsustainable (54 of the 65 major oil fields — including the North Sea and Mexico — already are in decline) economic projections would require daily production to increase to a staggering 130 million barrels by 2030.
When Brazil giddily announced it had found an offshore oil field that
could make the country the world's largest producer, analysts noted
that the oil is 32,000 feet deep and technology to draw it out hasn't
even been invented. According to a Bloomberg report, tapping the potential reserve will require equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per square inch of pressure (enough to crush a truck), pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit, and drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than a mile thick. Also, the water is so deep that massive drilling platforms cannot be anchored (as in the Gulf of Mexico) but must float on a windy, swelling ocean and rely on complex positioning technology to maintain proximity to the drill hole.
Another thing to consider is that the U.S. is in dire need of massive
reconstruction of our crumbling roads, bridges, levees, and other
infrastructure, especially our electric grid. All this construction will require massive amounts of oil at a time like this when oil supply is tight and world demand is growing. In January a national commission on transport policy recommended that the government should invest at
least $225 billion each year for the next 50 years. The country is
spending less than 40 percent of that amount today.
Quite a few people believe that if there is a decline in oil production, we can make up much of the difference by increasing our use of electricity -- more nuclear, wind, solar voltaic, geothermal or even coal. The problem with this model is that it assumes that our electric grid will be working well enough for this to happen. It seems to me that there is substantial doubt that this will be the case. The dirty secret of clean energy is that while generating it is getting easier, moving it to market is not. (The trouble with alternatives like wind, wave, solar, geothermal is that they're not nice concentrated energy sources, they're diffuse
sources of energy, with small potential differences which makes them
relatively inefficient.) The grid today, according to experts, is a system conceived 100 years ago to let utilities prop each other up, reducing blackouts and sharing power in small regions. It resembles a network of streets, avenues, and country roads. While the United States today gets barely 1 percent of its electricity from wind turbines, many experts are starting to think that figure could hit 20 percent.
Achieving that would require moving large amounts of power over long
distances, from the windy, lightly populated plains in the middle of
the country to the coasts where many people live. Builders are also
contemplating immense solar-power stations in the nation's deserts
that would pose the same transmission problems.The grid's limitations
are putting a damper on such projects already..."
news.cnet.com/Wind-ene...
Michael Morris, chairman, president and chief executive of American
Electric Power, which runs the nation's largest electrical transmission system, told the Associated Press he sees a dire situation ahead for the power grid, and the U.S. could eventually face power rationing.
blog.seattlepi.nwsourc...
...The US power grid - three interconnected grids made up of 3,500
utilities serving 283 million people - still hangs together by a
thread, and its dilapidated state is perhaps one of the greatest
threats to homeland security, according to Bruce deGrazia, the
president of Global Homeland Security Advisors and a former assistant deputy undersecretary for the Department of Defense, who spoke at an electricity industry conference in Shepherdstown, Va.
www.pubrecord.org/comp...
All of this does not bode well for an electric car society. Consider what Volkswagen's chief researcher said recently concerning electric cars:
"It will take 20 to 25 years before electric cars achieve a market share of more than 10 per cent." He said electric motors would never replace internal-combustion engines in some sectors, such as long-distance heavy trucks. "At the moment it is inconceivable they could ever be powered by batteries," he said, adding that there was still major potential to make petrol and diesel engines more efficient.
Rod Dreher eloquently described our current situation concerning peak oil:
"...Whether peak oil is already here or on its way, we'll have to deal with it. The more important question, then, is this: Are we ready for the
inevitable? The answer, I'm convinced, is no. And our unreadiness is
not for lack of information; it's moral and philosophical. Put plainly, it's because we Americans do not recognize limits. We live in a fantasyland whose borders go far beyond the oilfields, whose
psychological geography is critical to map out a future our nation is
blindly headed for. ...Our way of life depends not only on cheap, abundant oil but also on a seemingly endless line of credit. Within a single lifetime, the U.S. has gone from creditor nation to debtor nation."
Have we reached our limit on our Chinese Credit Card?
- nova
- 74 Comments
Aug 30 01:48 PMBesides oil, Russia also sells special metals required to built jet engines, rockets and many other things the West needs for its defense industries.
As for starving to death, Russia's strategic currency reserve is close to $1T. So, they are not about to starve soon.
- cynic69
- 236 Comments
My Website
Aug 30 02:18 PMwww.hubbertpeak.com/Hu.../ . Peak oil is not about how much oil there is on the earth. Peak oil is about "production rates". If for ANY reason the producers can't pump 86 million barrels per day shortages are going to occur. Shortages are going to throw the world into chaos. If you can't fill your tank and get to work your kids are going to starve. Thats going to make you mad enough to get your gun and kill some folks.
- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 02:43 PM3500 untilities in the US; that's 70 per state on the average (which we understand is the average and not necessarily where the people are - however, the hydro plants are on rivers, 100 nucs are scattered about in most states, coal is by the coal unless it's not, etc). All the electricity is transmitted across millions of acres of empty space - even if on 3 grids as you say. But we know how to and can fix all that, plus beef it up and increase it 50%; easier than exploring, drilling, extracting, etc.So it shouldn't be a scare tactic.
As for the 21 mb/d crude, most of which we burn. We can reduce that to 2-3 mb/d by switching power generation to solar, wind, nuc and hydro power (no coal, no oil, no nat gas) and beef up the grid to handle 18 Quads/yr from the existing 12 Quads/yr: 50% upgrade. (Remember we throw away 70% of the energy in burning coal, nat gas, and oil in power generation; we consume ~30 Quads of coal, oil, nat gas to generate about 7 Quads of electricity - the other 5 Quads come from Nuc and Hydro; so we need 5 Quads of solar, wind, nuc to make up for ALL the coal and ng in power generation). Then, on the transportation side, we burn 40 Quads/yr of crude to produce 5 Quads of useful energy and about 5 Quads of products - throwing away 30 Quads of energy. So those 5 Quads of
- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 02:47 PMGoodbye 21 mb/d crude. Goodbye over 50 Quads/yr of coal, oil, gas, gasoline (and all the shale, tar, liquifaction, gasification, etc.) AND COME ON 5 QUADS OF SOLAR, WIND POWER GENERATION AND 5 QUADS EXTRA OF THE SAME TO SOLVE THE 5 QUADS USEFUL TRANSPORTATION NEEDS.
SIMPLE. SWEET.
GUTS AND MONEY. CLONE BOONE.
- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 02:56 PMThat's the only error in everything I said above. And all else is truth.
Oh yes, I forgot to mention that hooking up all the distributed solar and wind farm stuff is a breeze. There's an existing transmission line within 25-50 miles of any such farm we establish. And if there isn't, put one in. Just kick the rattle snakes out of the way, temporarily.
- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 03:01 PM- steve Ward
- 199 Comments
Aug 30 03:10 PMWe already have alternatives to conventionalpower generation,it's now transportation fuel that is and will remain the ongoing issue.
- drooyrich
- 21 Comments
Aug 30 03:23 PM- nakedjaybird
- 397 Comments
Aug 30 04:13 PMYou foget (or may not know) what we can do when we want to build a nuc bomb and go to the moon. LEADERSHIP is what we need.
All the millions of acres US farmland in CRP (for which we pay farmers $800,000,000 a year to do NOTHING) can be worked to produce a crop in one season to feed biofuel plants (feedstock: switchgrass, canolo, etc., not corn except for husks) which can be built in < 1 yr, adjacent to many existing railroad sidings.
Waste heat recovery using solid state direct conversion to electricy is within a couple years; which will result in replacing internal combustion engines with a no-moving-parts injected biofuel buner encapsulated with the heat recovery devices which directly drive a 20-40 hp electric motors capable of low speed torques of 80-200 hp motors and do 0-60 mph in 4 seconds (like the Tesla), and be fed by the 20+ gallon biofuel GRASS TANK, refillable at 1/3 of the existing service stations because they will need to be refilled 1/3 as often because we are using 90% of the energy in the biofuel (come on XON and CONOCO, etc., get rid of the outlets now because we're only going to need 30% of them within 10 years).
As for all the diesel-electri trains: make them 100% electric (did I mention Switzerland yet?).
And for all the diesel trucks, make them biofuel trucks and haul their cargo on existing electrified rails or electrify the inter/intrastates and add elecrified cargo/hybrid/people ferries.
SIMPLE. SWEET. AND LEADERSHIP.