Leading Indicators Continue to Decline in Major Economies - OECD

by: Research Recap October 10, 2008    

Research Recap

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Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August 2008 indicated a continued weakening outlook for all seven major economies, a trend that seems certain to accelerate given the financial market meltdown since that time.

The CLI for the OECD area decreased by 0.7 point in August 2008 and was 4.9 points lower than in August 2007. For the United States it fell by 0.5 point in August and was 5.3 points lower than a year ago. The Euro area’s CLI decreased by 1.0 point in August and stood 6.4 points lower than a year ago.

The CLI for Japan decreased by 0.9 point, and was 2.8 points lower than a year ago and for the United Kingdom was down by 1.1 point and 6.1 points.

The data for major non-OECD member economies tentatively pointed to expansion in Brazil, a downturn in China and Russia and a slowdown in India.

Changes in the CLI from the previous month and a year earlier were as follows:

China -0.7 point -3.1 points

India -1.2 point, -7.1 points (July)

Russia -2.3 points, -0.4 point

Brazil -1.0 point, +3.4 points

Canada -1.5 point, -4.7 points

France -0.8 point, -5.6 points

Germany -2.0 points, -7.6 points

Italy -0.8 point,  in -5.9 points

In a separate report, the OECD said the standardised unemployment rate for the OECD area was 6.0% in August 2008, 0.2 percentage point higher than the previous month and 0.4 percentage point higher than a year earlier.

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This article has 1 comment:

  •  
    Oct 11 10:10 AM
    "CLI leads to expansion in Brazil". The ground reality is that Brazil is so depended on Oil and other commodities that with commodities crashing down due to dropping demand will cause a slowdown in coming months. Brazil as being part of an export oriented economy would also suffer from impending reccession in Europe and US. if CLI was anything but waning sign but not an accurate indicator of things to come.
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