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3 Stocks Poised to Move on Tuesday
Are Global Smartphone Sales Poised For Takeoff?
Right now, we have a large category of phone called smartphones, but we need to start segmenting it. Just because a phone has a smart OS, does not mean people are actually using it much for anything beyond what a feature phone offers. I would say there are at least 2 segments: email phones and internet phones in the smartphone category. Email phones are the vast majority of Nokias and Blackberries. The sales of email phones may be slowing from the fast growth in the last couple of years. The other segment are true internet phones, like the iPhone and its copies, like Android. This is the hot segment where sales are growing quickly, and why everyone is trying to offer something in this segment.
The only way to truly measure share in this internet phone segment of the smartphone category is to look at internet usage. I mean, if you have a smartphone with web access but never use it for the web because it's so horrible, is it really an internet phone, or just an email phone? If you look at mobile internet usage, then the iPhone dominates already, and the rate of growth of mobile internet use is growing rapidly.
The bottom line, is that we need to segment the smartphone category because it makes sense, as there is a difference pre and post-iPhone.
As someone mentioned above, internet phones are replacements for a computer in many developing countries. I know, as I have a home in China. Everyone seems to have a cellphone, or at least half the 1.3Billion people do. Very few people have computers. DSL connections are lousy and slow. In fact, cell connections are more reliable. EDGE is fantastic, even in the countryside. 1/4 of the cellphone sales in China cost more than 500USD. They don't subsidize cells over there. Having an internet device that you can carry in your pocket is far more appealing in developing countries like China, than the idea of a laptop or desktop.
Web Browser Wars: Google Looking Beyond Market Share
Seeing an End to the iPod's Hegemony
Your article would have been far more interesting if you had applied your thoughts to "Seeing an End to Internet Explorer's Hegemony".
I also wanted to point out some factual errors. You said, " And since the iTunes downloads were all encoded with Apple's DRM". Uhm, not "all" iTunes downloads are DRM encoded, just something like a little over a half, and that's only because some of the labels are trying to steer business to Amazon.
You say MS is "hammering the door" with the Zune. Everyone knows that that is laughable. Zune has 2% of the market at best. Dell is a failed player in the MP3 player market, and quoting Enderle only undermines your argument, since he has a conflict of interest, having consulted on the effort. And, Sandisk's wifi music player? You do realize that iPhones and iPod Touches can download over wifi from the iTunes Music Store, right, without going thru a computer.
The reason why MS and Dell are in the market isn't because they think they'll have an impact on iPods or iTunes, it's because they need a full media product offering. It's not just about music, but about all types of digital media, and giving up on music, will potentially cede the video download and video device market to Apple as well. That's the fear at MS and Dell. That's why they have to get into markets they don't look likely to win. They have to play in the last battleground, in order to have a chance to win in the next battleground.
And, thinking the subscription battle is where Apple will lose is just silly. Apple can turn on subscriptions in a New York minute. There's NO meaningful barrier to entry. Besides, there's more out there than just Pandora that already work on my iPhone. There's AOL Radio, where you can choose from hundreds of radio stations. There's rumors that Sirius is coming to the iPhone. There's a FREE app from SimplifyMedia which allows me to serve my whole music library from my home PC to my iPhone wherever I am. I don't even need my music on my iPhone any more. I can just stream it. Do you think Zune or Sandisk have those capabilities in their devices? The other players in the market are just getting further and further behind, because Apple has already created a large enough ecosystem that all the innovation is being driven for iPods and iPhones. The other players are too small to attract any development. Sure I know, it's much like Apple Computers were just 10 years ago, but it took extraordinary talent to take Apple from where it was 10 years ago to where it is today. It will take another extraordinary talent for it to happen again. So far, you haven't identified anyone or any company or any idea that would be that talent.
Does Apple's iPhone Increase Browsing?
Browser Wars: What Are They Good For?
WebKit is fast, it's light in size, great for mobile apps, and meets web standards. The bottom line is that WebKit does NOT have to win any war, in order to achieve its goals, which is to prevent MS from gaining a monopoly and thus impose proprietary solutions upon the internet.
The reason why Safari is on Windows is much the same as why Google developed Chrome. No one expects Safari to win the browser wars, its existence is to keep MS honest.
No New Kindles for 2008; Upcoming Models May Have Better Screens
How Big Will iPhone Gaming Be?
Just because you can get the app for free, does not mean people will no longer "bother with the iPhone". I mean, where are you going to install these apps? It's the same with iPods, it doesn't matter that you can buy music from Amazon instead of the iTMS, and put the files in iTunes. They all drive sales of iPods. The same applies here, paid for apps and stolen apps, all reside on iPhones and drive iPhone sales. Why should Apple be overly concerned?
Why Is Google Entering the Browser Market?
I mean, why didn't they just license and rebrand Safari? It's already cross-platform, and does everything they want, and Google is its default search.
The bottom line is that Safari on Windows is not meant to win any browser war, but to keep MS honest, by having the most web-standard compliant browser available. I mean, WebKit was developed by Apple, and it's now being used by Android, Adobe Air, and others.
The Wireless Application Marketplace: Apple, Google, Microsoft and RIMM
I suppose a Google App Store will help sell Android-based phones, but still, a plethora of devices where some apps work on some phones, better than on other phones, is confusing to the customer. Look at MS and Nokia and Palm's efforts so far.
Steve Jobs Isn't Dead Yet!
Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best
2) What if the sky is falling? Honestly, mobile IS the next big thing. Also, recent projections DO NOT tie a significant amount of revenues to the App Store. Even if it were generating $1B in sales, Apple only gets 30%. No one is baking a large amount of sales in to the share price, due to the App Store. As for game developers, the fact that there are probably 10 million iPhones now, and probably 50 million iPhones by the end of next year, in the marketplace, with easy access to the App Store makes any other mobile game device dead in the water. Game developers, the TOP game developers are flocking to the iPhone, because of its installed base, and secure sales. No pirating of software. Your contention of another device is fantasy.
3) Are you an investor or a trader? If you are an investor then Steve's health is not an issue, it's the product that matters and Apple's roadmap. Also, Steve is nearly at the 5-year benchmark for being "cured" of cancer.
4) The price premium is a myth. iPods are not premium priced. Apple's margins have fluctuated from 27% to 35% over the last 5 years. They are not dropping margins on hardware to gain App Store sales. The App Store is breakeven, and brings down margins. Also, Apple's rivals have been targeting the iTunes store for ages, and have had zero success. That's Amazon, Walmart, Microsoft and others. What makes you think they will do any better in the future?
5) The macroeconomic environment has been bad for a while now, and there has been no bump in Apple's sales or earnings. They've been hitting record after record.
Every one of your 5 points has no factual basis, they are all conjecture. If you are going to do some analysis of Apple, you need to study the subject a little harder. You cursory glance is very superficial.
Record Companies Starting to Shun iTunes
Two, if we use your example of say, 330k CDs sold, to presumably 330k individuals, compared to say 2.2M downloads. Of course, that would not be to 2.2M individuals, but still a substantially larger number of individuals than the number who bought CDs, aren't you losing out exposure to a much wider audience? Isn't that what marketing is for? So, it may not be immediately lucrative to the artist to sell downloads vs CDs, but it may lay the groundwork for a much larger audience, and better attendance at shows.
Bloomberg's Premature Steve Jobs Obit: Why?
Steve is virtually at the 5 year mark for his diagnosis, at which point he would be considered "cured". Cancer can be malignant or benign. The difference being the speed at which it is growing. At 5 years, recurrence by definition would be considered slow, and thus benign.
This is a total NON-ISSUE. People need to stop rumormongering.
Apple's China Debacle: The Corporation as an Agent of Social Change