Tom B

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  • The Mysterious Steve Jobs
    You weren't supposed to know about the Osama Bin laden communication strategy! Expect a call from the CIA, which does better funding-wise in lunatic-rich environments.

    But seriously: Tech is different from pumping oil (Exxon) or Union-busting (WMT). Tech is hard to get "right"; and "right" is in a constant state of change.

    And Apple is at a crossroads. When the Stores opened and Apple started selling iPods, the pundits all said "Oooh, Apple wants to be a CE company". But, in fact, all their successes have lead to a boost in Mac usage. Apple has HUGELY increased the usability, performance, security and stability gaps between Mac and Windows (which were at their lowest points around 1996, just before Jobs returned). OSX runs on great machines and has dev tools Redmond can only fantasize about.

    And yet, market share sits around 10%, in large part because Enterprise is slow-moving; way more willing to spend 100's of thousands on IT support than $50 more on a CPU; and has, very, very simple needs-- E-mail, Powerpoint, some database. That is changing, but slowly.

    My feeling is that, at some point, OSX will pick up monentum and really start to hammer Windows on market share. 10.6 will help. Maybe Win 7 will help, if it is anything like Vista (and it looks like it will be very much like Vista!). After that point Apple's CEO will matter less. My hope is that Jobs will stay at least a few more years and finish what he started.

    I remember the Apple-is-doomed 90's, and it wasn't that they didn't have the best computers or the best programmers-- they did. The problem was they got WAY behind transitioning to a UNIX-like OS, needed in the modern age where everybody is always running many apps at once.

    MSFT has STILL not made the transition to UNIX, and I'd say its a bit too late to start now, particularly with weak, ineffectual management at the top: Ballmer (Yahoo deal, Vista, Zune, Xbox).
    Jan 06 10:19 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What's Happening at Apple: Steve Jobs
    "if you do think that Bill Gates leaving Microsoft resulted in its fall from grace, then it doesn't really help your contention that Apple will continue to thrive regardless of having Steve Jobs' as Chief Executive."

    I didn't make that contention. Apple needs "critical mass"-- enough momentum to eventually displace MSFT even in Eneterprise-- and they are still a few years off from that point, though I believe they will beat MSFT in market cap in 2009.

    As for Gates: his biggest talents were: 1) being in the right place at the right time, by getting IBM suckered into DOS, then Windows 2) Being predatory enough to expand his empire through monopoly tactics the '80s and '90s-- less easy to do now with more regulators watching. Gates was never about technology or innovation.And the reason they have HELD ON to Enterprise so long is that it doesn't take fancy computers to word process, send E-mail, and make Powerpoint slides. Enterprise's needs are VERY basic.

    " Let David Pogue do the Keynote" No, Andy Inkhnatko-- funnier; or Bob LeVitus-- more knowledgable.

    On Dec 22 10:07 AM The Curious Investor wrote:

    > Sleepyg,
    > Maybe I made a semantic mistake in choosing to describe the community
    > of Apple users as "adoring fans" of Steve Jobs. My point is basically
    > that up until now, it's hard not to deny that Apple Fandom has been
    > tied to the Steve Jobs as Chief Executive at Apple. There are few
    > brands in the world that have a regular online following, multiple
    > high-traffic rumor blogs, and a tradeshow circuit devoted entirely
    > to their products and peripherals made for their products. This is
    > most definitely the result of terrific execution and a tremendous
    > foresight. I believe that Apple will survive beyond Steve Jobs, but
    > I do think that it needs to (and has begun to) transition away from
    > its reliance on "Steve Jobs (tm)" as its iconic salesman.
    >
    > Arnold,
    > I do mention the WWDC and Apple Special Events in this post. Maybe
    > you thought I should have made a stronger point on their viewership?
    >
    >
    > TimboM,
    > I agree and I think most investors agree with your point. The stock
    > fell 7% but has rebounded quickly and is really trading roughly flat
    > with prices pre-announcement. A lot of negative sentiment is baked
    > in and Apple is in a perfect place to wow us with a tremendous set
    > of product announcements and a healthy Steve Jobs appearance. But,
    > inherent in the fact that they "gave away almost no information"
    > is the fact that the information they did give away
    >
    > Tom B.,
    > Microsoft continues to deliver strong earnings and revenue results
    > despite perceived flubs in marketing and product development. Microsoft's
    > bread and butter remains its entrenched enterprise software business
    > for which the foundation was laid during the Bill Gates era. It's
    > future success will ultimately be determined by how well it captures
    > consumer and internet market share, but I think it's a bit early
    > to judge this or to tie recent failures directly to the loss of Bill
    > Gates.
    >
    > Also, if you do think that Bill Gates leaving Microsoft resulted
    > in its fall from grace, then it doesn't really help your contention
    > that Apple will continue to thrive regardless of having Steve Jobs'
    > as Chief Executive. Steve Jobs has been taking a slightly lesser
    > role (at least publicly) for the last year or so (i.e. inviting other
    > executives to speak for him at engagements and even on earnings calls)
    > and will probably continue to transition away in coming years. How
    > can this not be at least a minimal concern to a long-term investor?
    Dec 22 14:53 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What's Happening at Apple: Trade Shows
    the iPhone IS a computer. Not full functioned, mind you, but very well optimized for mobility and sense of place.


    On Dec 22 01:04 PM Stephen Rosenman wrote:

    > Apple is a smart phone company now. It is no longer about selling
    > computers to geeks. It is about selling to the "in" and "wealthy".
    Dec 22 14:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What's Happening at Apple: Steve Jobs
    "In our closest example, Microsoft doesn’t seem to have missed a beat after Bill Gates stepped down."


    Really? think closely about what you just said. When I see Ballmer, I see a loud-mouthed frat boy who: 1) couldn't move the flagship product (Windows) to UNIX and spewed forth Vista instead 2) launched abortive products like Silverlight and Zune 3) Continues to bankroll the money-losing XBox white elephant 4) Couldn't convince the Yahoo board to roll over and commit hari-kiri before the Mighty Microsoft 5) gave us those inexplicable Jerry Seinfeld ads.
    Dec 22 09:17 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What's Happening at Apple: Trade Shows
    I think the word is "cachet"; not cache.


    I think it's just a cost thing. My expectation is that Jobs will give a non-MacWorld keynote "demo"-ing 10.6 shortly AFTER MWSF
    Dec 22 09:11 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Mac vs. PC vs. Gold
    "I am not sure if the cause is whether Apple’s products are getting significantly better or whether Windows-based machines keep getting more and more painful to use. "

    The answer is "yes". Apple's computers were substantially superior in 1989, when I started using them, and, though they had a discouraging "sideways" period around system 7.x (1995-1997-ish), they have ALWAYS been a better experience for users. But the gap really widened when Steve Jobs came back and 1) moved to a UNIX kernel 2) integrated development tools from NeXT that are decades ahead of anything else out there 3) ramped up the styling 4) figured out that MP3 players were an interesting place to be. In contrast, MSFT has weak development tools and has been incapable of moving to a UNIX kernel. I think they have geeks that could do it, but Ballmer is basically a loud-mouthed sales guy, and they need someone who knows how to direct a technology transition at the top.They have added issues, because they have no control over the hardware (like Apple does) and they have decades of enterprise junk they have to support to keep thei keep customer base from jumping ship to Mac and/or LINUX.
    Dec 22 08:58 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Five Apple Predictions for 2009
    I own both GOOG and AAPL, and you are dreaming. Google does exactly 1 thing really well: search. They don't even make hardware.

    On Dec 17 02:35 PM Simon Leoung wrote:

    > Google is taking dead aim at Apple right where it lives. Google has
    > a
    tremendous