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Latest Comments159 Comments
Sirius Investors: Decline in OEM Take Rate Something to Watch
Without shorts, the a stock will be hugely volatile -- it will go up without any resistance, due to buying of overly optimistic buyers, to insane valuations. This is when the majority of retail buying comes in - always late - then, at the first break of bad news, it will drop like a rock b/c no buyers step in to break the fall.
Shorts keep the stock in check on the way up by selling, and they keep the stock from a free-fall on the way down by covering. You should be thankful shorting exists - you're just the type of investor who benefits from it.
You saw what happened when short sales were dis-allowed on financials -- it got ugly. No buyers at the first turn of "bad" news and we dropped like a rock.
On Nov 22 10:58 AM StockGal wrote:
> Thanks for the replies. I think it's crazy and stupid to be able
> to make money on a stock when it goes down... it's like betting against
> a stock. So you have people also hoping it tanks?
Can You See Apple Under $60?
but it's already insane that it's at $80..... I think the author may be correct with the mid-$60s call... after the Jan numbers we start back up though - the deferred iPhone revenues will be huge.
We Need ETF-Based Hedge Funds
High Yield Corporate Spreads Not Yet at Great Depression Levels
This SA "re-post" does not do the author any favors. Try his link for a much better, if not entirely accurate, post.
High Yield Corporate Spreads Not Yet at Great Depression Levels
Assuming chart is of the 10yr maturity:
10yr UST was ~11.5% in '83, meaning that AAA spreads were approx +300 then, and BBB was approx +550.
Today, the 10yr composite AAA yield is ~6.75% -- that's +302 over the 10yr UST currently at 3.73%. BBB yields are over 10% today, giving approx +625 spread.
During the depression, USTs did not exist. The closest benchmark would be railroad bonds - those averaged 3-4% during the 1st half of the century, and I'd guess that those are what the "AAA" curve are tracking during that time in the chart.
Using the AAA (railroad bonds) as the benchmark, the BBB spread was then about +550 at its peak during the Great Depression.
As mentioned above, neither index is high yield, both AAA and BBB are investment grade.
Sirius Finally Provides Wall Street the Clarity It Demanded
Well I guess one difference btwn the two is that TMA made money hand over fist for many many years prior to their squeeze....
Why do you say it's "not even close" to a SIRI comparison?
On Nov 13 03:44 PM cos1000 wrote:
> wcorowitz
>
> TMA, Thornburg Mortgage is not even close to an example that would
> compare to Sirius. Sirius is an on going enterprise, growing in subscribers
> and net revenue, with a challenging year ahead.
>
> TMA , Thornburg Mortgage is a leading single-family residential mortgage
> lender focused principally on prime and super-prime borrowers seeking
> jumbo and super-jumbo adjustable-rate mortgages.
>
> On Sept 26, 2008 they did a 1 for 10 reverse split of their stock
> and on October 1, 2008 they paid their Senior Subordinate 18% interest
> payment, upon consent from the note holders, ADDITIONAL NOTES at
> 18% in lieu of a cash interest payment. Why do you think the SP has
> fallen. By the way your comparing a company that had 318M sh prior
> to RS and now has 31.8M shares after and a short interest of only
> 7% compared to Sirius' 9%.
GE, Goldman Bond Spreads: Unrealistic and Unsustainable
Circuit City Bankruptcy May Help Satellite Radio Inventory Levels
ever so slight difference.... clueless.
On Nov 10 03:05 PM APPLE123 wrote:
> BAD MOVE BY THE ORACLE OF OMAHA BOUGHT IN AT 115
4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman
clueless
1) they are not making money
2) "refi the debt".... possible, but only at 15-20%... or mass dilution.
3) if any stock with the SIRI ticker attached goes "off to the races", it will not be the one that is known as common today...
4 Signs for Further Caution by Satellite Radio Investors - Goldman
the company may be worth a lot more, but the common stock that is traded today will be just about worthless... the company and the stock you own are not one and the same. mass dilution is the only way for SIRI...
Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?
SIRI has never made a profit.
MNC had $45mil in longterm liabilities before this $139mil loan.
SIRI has $3.5bil in longterm liabilities.
MNC has $160mil in retained earnings on a $442mil balance sheet.
SIRI has -$4.6bil in retained earnings on a $10.6bil balance sheet.
On Nov 05 11:37 AM User 292014 wrote:
> A bit of positive information. It appears that lenders are beginning
> to flow money into corporations again. Check out Monaco Coach (MNC).
> Here's the news header:
>
> Monaco Coach Gets $129.3M In New Debt Financing
> MNCLast update: 11/5/2008 6:19:37 AM (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
> (201-938-5400)November 05, 2008 06:19 ET (11:19 GMT)
>
> This is an example of a distressed company that has been down 50%
> and struggling. Yet they have acquired a substantial amount of financing.
> I believe it may be time for me to get back in to sirius stock. I
> am going to hunt around an see what other distressed companies are
> acquiring substantial financing. Any thoughts or opinions?
Barrington Stays Positive on Sirius
let's see... Ba1 rated MGM Mirage just issued 5yr debt at 15%.... Caa1 rated SIRI (6 levels lower, only 4 tiers from "D" as in default) will borrow at 10%..?
unbelievable how clueless equity guys are.
Stifel Lowers Sirius Estimates on Weak Auto Sales
Why I Prefer Dividend Paying Stocks
FWIW, AAPL, last time they re-invested their cash in the company, they spent billions building a retail store network.... that is/was a much better return than one could reasonably expect an investor to get with a dividend payout. (though the value is not priced in to the current stock price, the value is there and it is/will be paying incredible returns...)
Mark Cuban's New TARP ETF Idea
these pieces are as different as night and day... letting the folks who own this stuff (and have studied the collateral) throw them together into a pool to sell to unsophisticated investors who wouldn't know how to value the collateral even if they had the capability (which they do not) is ridiculous.
and no, sophisticated investors would NOT buy a pool of different bonds at one price... they would buy tranches individually, after days of research, to pick the good from the bad.... there is paper worth 5 cents and paper worth 85 cents in sub-prime land.... and it's all "troubled assets" to DC and Main Street... as though it has the same value...
you would be selling to retail -- and retail doesn't know the first thing about this paper -- and as such, would be the huge loser of the trade down the line..