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  • Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week
    as I see it, Moody#s willö be gone before all this is over. The helped to create this mess with their nonsensical AAA-ratings of RMBS and CDOs. They deepened the crisis with their flip-flopping and their strange downgrades (MBI/ABK; LEH!) at very strange junctures. Hank Paulson will not be amused about how Moody#s and S&P further complicated things and added to trouble by downgrading LEH and AIg while everybody trioed to put bailout plans togehther. I mean, for all the months they had already waited - they could have easily waited for another couple of days, not?
    Sep 22 09:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ambac Collapse: Anticlimax of the Week
    Moody#s shut be shut down, as well as S&P. period. they did more harm than good and they continue to do so. their actions remind me by now of moronic daytraders flipping back anf forth - buying high, selling low, turning from bullish to bearish on a whim. same with Moody's upügrades - downgrades, most of them juyt in response to public pressure. Go figure. the sooner these ratings agencies cease to exist the betetr for everybody.
    Sep 22 05:56 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Financials and Housing: The Outlook Remains Ugly
    your abk, mbi and rdn shorts are mispülaced and will blow up in your face. you may well be correct on the housing market but that doesn't mean your bond insurance shorts will pay off. I am siding with marty whitman in this case who has a decades long proven track record and knows A LOT about insurers, distressed investing and financial stocks.
    and no, i am not surprised that you are now short fannie and freddie. after all bill ackman also went short them - and he seemingly can't make ANY move without Tilson following suit, no?
    Aug 20 05:51 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Emperor (Mr. Ackman) Has No Clothes
    Well, are you really so naive to think that Ackman ever believed the stuff he was telling the public day after day? All he needed to get done was to create enough fear and panick. Not to be right with his claims. I would certainly not be surprised to learn that he actually was now long the monoliners.
    That being said, the picture is not as rosy for ABK and MBi as you might think. They will be able to deal with their mistakes in the CDO business, sure. But their main business was insuring muni-bonds and if you look at the precarious state of the us economy and the quick deterioration of federal and municipal budgets (collapsing tax revenues!) this spells lots of trouble. I am cautiously long mbi/ABk, mostly senior debt, but expect substantial deductions from current book value estimates over the next 4-5 years.
    Aug 11 07:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article