Skjellifetti

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  • Spanish Inflation, Retail Sales and Bank Lending
    NOBODY expects the Spanish Inflation! Our chief weapon is surprise...surprise and fear...fear and surprise.... Our two weapons are fear and surprise...and monetary growth.... Our *three* weapons are fear, surprise, and monetary growth...and an almost fanatical devotion to oil speculation.... Our *four*...no... *Amongst* our weapons.... Amongst our weaponry...are such elements as fear, surprise....
    Jun 30 15:43 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Adventures in Technical Analysis, Jim Cramer Edition
    "Charts are great for predicting the past." -- Peter Lynch

    "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" -- Warren Buffett

    "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." -- Warren Buffett

    Zack Bass, however, is correct that Salmon's argument is a rhetorical fallacy (as is my own appeal to authority argument above). The real question is to ask if there are any definitive studies that show that technical analysis is predictive of the future and not just the past.
    Jun 23 17:35 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Election 2008: Obamanomics and Its Achilles' Heel
    Alphameister,

    You sound like the modern Bush Republican who really doesn't believe in Democracy when the policy outcome isn't what you think it should be. It seems you further pretend to like rational discourse in one breath while mouthing unsubstantiated smears against those with whom you disagree in a second breath. You are exactly the type that the rest of us are so revolted by after 8 years of ideologically driven politics that has utterly failed to solve a single damn problem and created many, many more of its own. There is a reasonable chance that Obama will be elected in a landslide. Better learn to deal with it.
    Jun 23 13:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Election 2008: Obamanomics and Its Achilles' Heel
    jswede - It wasn't my article. I'm just providing some easily observable counterexamples to show how badly argued this article is. And since we cannot rerun the Reagan experiment exactly with only a change to the defense spending (the "change one thing while keeping all else constant" that is the basis of scientific experimentation), we will never know if your statement that defense hindered the full effects of the Reagan tax cuts is true or not.
    Jun 19 14:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Election 2008: Obamanomics and Its Achilles' Heel
    "Or maybe it’s just simply reactionary - a position to be expected from a Reaganite mossback who fails to recognize that the world has changed."

    Considering that Reagan and Bush I and now Bush II were responsible for the largest budget deficits in U.S. history, it is ridiculous for a "Reaganite mossback" to be lecturing Obama about budget deficits.

    "Public spending, on the other hand, cannot be economically optimal except by accident, because it represents bureaucrats, however well meaning, making choices on behalf of others, which are unlikely to coincide with the preferences of the beneficiaries."

    This is mostly superficial nonsense. Public spending ultimately reflects the social choices made by a democratic process and is the amalgamation of each and every voter's preferences and not some faceless bureaucratic process.

    "But a look at global history shows his belief that public spending in and of itself would boost the economy is contrary to reality."

    Are you suggesting that the growth experienced during Reagan was illusory? Seems to me that you are carefully cherry picking your history.
    Jun 19 12:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ben Bernanke: What Kind of Bird Is This?
    What is the MZW in your graph?
    Jun 17 14:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • "Rubinomics" Is Back, Part Two
    "If the value of the U. S. dollar has been falling for seven years or so, maybe the market is trying to tell it something."

    The market is telling us only that our Import:Xport ratio is greater than 1, nothing more, nothing less. While gov't fiscal imprudence is a contributor to this situation, it is not the only or even the most important factor. It also appears that the problem is self-correcting, or at least would be if we did not import so much oil. If I:X is too high, the dollar drops and I:X falls. So why is there so much hand wringing over the drop in the dollar relative to other currencies? Presitige? Bah! Who cares! Seems like the fall could have many useful side effects such as reversing or slowing the decline of American manufacturing.
    Jun 17 13:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Passive Investing Wisdom from Taylor Larimore
    Neither George Soros nor Julian Robertson have been able to time the markets both successfully and consistently. They have done better than most, but they have also had blowups that cost their funds billions.
    Jun 16 12:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Two Book Reviews on Derivatives: George Soros and Satyajit Das
    "Any system that responds not only to outward stimulus, but to its own perception of that stimulus and guesses in the future is inherently non-falsifiable as the presumption of "knowledge" precludes hypothesis."

    Explain why this statement does not apply to quantum mechanics where the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principal shows that the very act of measuring something changes what is being measured. Your sentence sounds like Philosophy of Science buzzword BS to me. Have you been reading Nassim Taleb? If so, please stop. The man has only a superficial understanding of Popper and his rants become quickly annoying given that his own theories are inherently non-falsifiable.
    Jun 16 12:11 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Portfolio Planning and the Lost Decade
    Your articles are consistently interesting. I'd love to try QPP, but you are going to have to port it to OpenOffice for us Linux users.
    Jun 13 13:47 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • "Rubinomics" Is Back
    "If things are always so great under the Dems - then why the hell do the Reps regain power?"

    Because they are better liars than the Dems.

    As I have gotten older, I start to understand why Mark Twain's writing became so dark and pessimistic in his later years.
    Jun 13 13:32 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • "Rubinomics" Is Back
    Excellent article. I especially liked this paragraph:

    "But, there is a wider issue that must be discussed within the context of the debate between “Rubinomics” and the position taken by the union leaders. Both sides of the discussion need to be listened to. An Obama Administration cannot just rush off with a program of new “critical public investment” without considering the implications such a policy would have on international financial markets. And, those in favor of “Rubinomics” cannot enforce fiscal discipline without policy goals and objectives related to the social issues that need to be dealt with. The Democratic Party is a community and needs to hear from its different constituencies and sub groups, their positions and arguments. The diversity of the party is one of its strengths. This diversity allows for many, many voices to be heard and incorporated into the change that needs to take place."

    It succinctly describes how adults govern. We must have an open discussion of goals coupled with an honest discussion of constraints. Those who would whine that the "socialism of the democrats can only lead to weakness of the state" would do well to remember that it was a Republican President coupled with a Republican Congress that got us into the fine mess we are in today precisely because they refused to honestly discuss their goals and would not acknowledge any legal or financial constraints on their behavior.
    Jun 13 11:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Red Hat Settles Patent Lawsuit
    Hmmm. Filed in the Eastern District of Texas? The Capital of Patent Trolls? Now look at the patent itself. As a Sr Software Geek, this patent looks to me like it belongs in the "every developer has written code to do exactly this at one point or another." I hope Red Hat smacked them down hard.
    Jun 12 14:13 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • NYT Smears David Einhorn, Again
    "The Times are just a bunch of liberal democrats. Why does anyone even bother to read it?"

    Because really smart successful people are not afraid to have their biases exposed and their opinions challenged. Smart people know that they might actually learn something profitable by keeping an open mind.

    Dick Cheney, who allegedly watches only Fox news and reads only the WSJ, is the classic poster child for why you should not be afraid of news and opinion that is different from your own.
    Jun 12 13:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Second Wave of Bank Troubles
    NCC purchased two FL thrifts in 2006 in an attempt to enter the FL market. They overpaid and are (at least partially) in trouble due to subprime lending in FL.

    Huntington Bank is down due to a purchase of Sky Bank which has cost it the usual merger/acquisition/int... stuff plus Sky had a link to Franklin Credit Management Corp. (NASDAQ:FCMC) which has forced Huntington to take a $500 million loan loss set aside on subprime mortgages related to the Sky acquisition.
    Jun 09 14:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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