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ChangeWave: When Did You Learn the U.S. Was in a Recession?

Only 2 of 54 Economists saw a recession in 2008, in this article from December 2007....

bwnt.businessweek.com/.../

Why are Economists so bad at what they do?
Dec 24 06:53 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Time to Cautiously Get Back in the Game

Translated: Bernie Madoff, Investment Banks, and the rest of the "Financial Elite" stole everyone's money, but trust us! Get back in the game! Please move your retirement money back into equities, the coast is clear. This is the 14th bottom call, and that's always the charm.

Didn't work?

"Get that clown Cramer back in make-up, cue lunatic rant.... three....two....one (silent)..."

"Hey this is Cramer...some people want to make friends.....I just want to make YOU money...."
Dec 15 18:52 pm |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Wall Street Journal: Homebuilders Want $250 Billion Stimulus

No inflation worries. It's deflation from here on out, so print away.
Nov 25 02:43 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
President-Elect Obama and the U.S. Dollar

"is like worrying about a helmsman change on board the Titanic"....was the best line I've heard in a long time. That got me rolling. So true.....
Nov 10 12:33 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Finuked: Where Are the Bunkers?

Thank goodness none of this is actually happening. If it was, this would be the end of:
- overseas investments
- the global economy
- emerging markets
- immigration
- acceptance of free-market capitalism and democracy by the rest of the world.
- cable, boutique coffee, space exploration, most restaurant chains, infrastructure build-outs, charitable contributions, and on and on it goes.

While it would also signify the start of:
- protectionism
- re-emergence of unions
- global socialism
- local interests over all others, and on and on....

This is a seminal moment in World History.
Oct 26 14:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
This Recession Will Be Anything but Deep

Finally a sane discussion. You remember Y2K? Planes were going to fall out of the sky, the electrical grid was going to shut down, gravity would reverse, and anarchy would ensue. All because computers couldn't handle an extra byte or two. Teams were formed, code was written, arguments were held over whether 2K was the year 2000 or 2001. People bought generators, bought guns and ammo, loaded up on freeze dried food, hoarded cash because ATM's would not work, and vendors of this stuff, loved it. The media LOVED it too. They saw the potential and milked it for all it was worth. Magazines wrote articles on every angle, radio shows talk-talk-talked up the panic, and TV scared everyone with teasers so they'd get "the inside story". The big day came, and if memory serves me correctly, one water treatment plant in Wisconsin had an issue.

Now everyone is freaking out about the market (and they should this time because they have retirements and pensions at stake), but the alarmists are siting hedge fund sell-offs, related to margin calls resulting from Lehman swaps, as if this is the end of capitalism. We are deleveraging. We are deflated. We'll flood the world with capital and get back to inflated so that debts can be settled. Let's hope everyone learned a lesson for twenty years, invests more conservatively, understands their financial limits, and repeat the whole thing over again in 2025.
Oct 17 00:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The Crash of 2008

Nice summation of statistics and great information-filled thread.
Oct 12 18:58 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
5 Reasons Stocks Will Keep Falling

So, a company like DRYS goes to a FWD P/E of 1. They have a lessened but solid cash flow. They have a fairly young collection of ships, and a group of brand new drillships, all of which are worth multiples of their market capitalization. So answer me this, Batman...Why don't they, and other low P/E companies with cash flow, and low debt/equity ratios simply take their earnings from the next year or two and buy back every share outstanding? De-list from the stock market casino and never sit through another hedge fund implosion, Cramer rant, or analyst downgrade ever again.So, a company like DRYS goes to a FWD P/E of 1. They have a lessened but solid cash flow. They have a fairly young collection of ships, and a group of brand new drillships, all of which are worth multiples of their market capitalization. So answer me this, Batman...Why don't they, and other low P/E companies with cash flow, and low debt/equity ratios simply take their earnings from the next year or two and buy back every share outstanding? De-list from the stock market casino and never sit through another hedge fund implosion, Cramer rant, or analyst downgrade ever again.
Oct 12 07:29 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Using History to Plan Near-Term Investing

Your graph's percentages are very wrong. The two 48% boxes are different sizes...I appreciate the information though. I believe that we'll have a currency crisis for Christmas, and look to ultra-inverse for the Holidays.
Oct 11 23:43 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
How to Handle a Snap-Back Rally (If We Get One)

What I meant by saying to react to a rally by buying an ultra-inverse fund is that you expect the rally is a relief rally and has no legs. Something like SDS goes down in price and you start a position, adding to it in increasing increments as the rally continues. If the rally results in another major down-leg, your position in SDS helps lessen the blow to your portfolio of other holdings.
Oct 11 13:47 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
How to Handle a Snap-Back Rally (If We Get One)

I like the run down and graphics, but you never answered the title (teaser) of your post. Obviously you can handle a rally by buying inverse ETF's of various degrees, like SDS, MZZ, SRS etc. You can hedge against inflation by buying GLD, SLV or if you think we're in deflation, go against gold with DZZ. If oil drops and you think it has bottomed at some magical number, say $50/barrel, buy DIG or USO. If you think it's headed for $30, buy DUG.

Maybe you just want to keep it simple and go "short"
www.proshares.com/fund...=

or long....
www.proshares.com/fund...=

It may be a good time for investors to sit down and lay out their options which is something I had hoped this article would have a little more of.
Oct 11 13:44 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention

BTW, this is a global economy now. Do you honestly believe that the rest-of-the-world isn't going to gravitate towards certain items that have had universal financial appeal, throughout world history? Yes. I'm talking about powdered wigs.
Sep 20 14:18 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention

Curious wording....

"Sec. 6. Maximum Amount of Authorized Purchases.

The Secretary's authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time"

At one time....why is the media suggesting it's $700B, maximum, when the actual wording is thus? This leads us to my Potato Chip Theory....
Sep 20 14:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
If You Think the Dow Did Well Today, You're Wrong

Inflation will cure the housing problem, which the government bought for pennies on the dollar. Genius. Problem is that 70 million fixed-income retirees won't be able to afford food. Hey, one problem at a time....
Sep 20 13:40 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
It's a Bull Market in Government Intervention

BTW, panic is not a system-preservation instinct. It's a self-preservation instinct. Let the talking heads on the Titanic rationalize. I'm already in the boat.
Sep 20 13:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Wall Street Breakfast - Sample Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought. Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only. Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week. Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand... Email continues...
The Macro View - Sample Seeking Alpha - The Macro View Market Outlook An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Oil Price Oil Below $75: Increased Chance of OPEC Production Cuts by Money Morning Oil Down 48% from Highs by Bespoke Investment Group Oil & Gas Headed Lower as Economy Strikes Consumers by Michael Filloon Economy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
Investing Ideas - Sample Seeking Alpha - Investing Ideas Cramer's Picks Farewell Financial Bear Raids - Cramer's Mad Money (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Better Picks - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Perhaps Industrials... Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Long Ideas Utilities Beginning to Generate Interest for Longs by Joe Kunkle The Long Case for Encore Capital by Value Investor Insight 2009: The Year of the Channel for SaaS Vendors? by Jeff Kaplan Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U Market Behaves Sanely - Fast Money Recap (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Short Ideas Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street by Investment U Salesforce.com: Pricey and Coming Down Fast by Charlie Bottle Google: 3Q Results Reveal Chinks in the Armor by Mark Krieger Email continues...
Jim Cramer's Picks -
Sample

Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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Global Markets - Sample Seeking Alpha - Global Markets China An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy USANA Health Sciences Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Perfect World Announces Share Repurchase Program by Trader Mark China: Hot Money Inflows Down, Nervousness Up by Michael Pettis India Indian Economy Has Much to Cheer About by Equitymaster India: RBI Cuts Cash Reserve Ratio by Equitymaster India: Markets Continue Downward by Equitymaster Japan Sanyo Enters Thin-Film Market, Goes Up Against Sharp by Greentech Media Asia Four International Dividend Stocks to Watch by David Hunkar Eastern Europe Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
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