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Michael B. Krause's Comments Stream Stats
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- Total Comment Stream rating - = 5
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Time To Short Treasuries?
Regardless, a great inflation hedge to buy the TBT!
Rhodium: The Ultimate Reflationary Trade
Paulson's Plan Fails to Understand the Problem; Madoff Is a Perfect Example
Natural Gas Transportation Is a Win-Win Technology
You can't build a long term fuel infrastructure based on that model, considering we already so heavily depend on it for industrial uses that tend to like fossil inputs, and home heating which is much the same.
Natural gas looks good because it is cheap now, but unlike crude, we actually can run out of it in interim periods. In the winter we already consume a ton more than we pull out. If nat gas is to be viable as a primary alternative transport fuel, we probably need to double storage capacity, otherwise if poorly managed people may be freezing in their homes in the winter.
Additionally nat gas has pipeline and flow constraint issues. Did you know spot new york nat gas has seen $50+/mmbtu (maybe $90? I forget) price tags in recent winters due to demand in record chills? We're talking about massive infrastructure investment in a commodity that will ultimately dwindle just as quickly as oil wells if used en masse like this.
The only tenable long term solution (besides just driving less and accepting less economic activity as a fact of life) is nuclear power and electric cars. If Bush can give nuclear power to UAE, I don't see why we can't do it here and just solve the problem altogether. Next step is to build a few hundred power plant and use reprocessing internally in the design infrastructure (so waste never moves away from the plants, and we have no short supply of uranium or thorium ore). Even if we decided not to use a breeder reactor model, the vitrification methods (glass pelletizing of nuclear waste) work and are indeed relatively safe. It is time to end the fear over nuclear.
Obama's 2.5 Million Job Stimulus: We Need a Scalpel, Not a Shotgun
We need a shotgun and a scalpel. A scalpel for the long term, but in the short term we are in a mess. Take a look at the baltic dry index. We need to get goods moving again, trust restored, and demand back up in the world economies. It'll take a shotgun to make that happen...
Obama's 2.5 Million Job Stimulus: We Need a Scalpel, Not a Shotgun
We need a shotgun and a scalpel. A scalpel for the long term, but in the short term we are in a mess. Take a look at the baltic dry index. We need to get goods moving again, trust restored, and demand back up in the world economies. It'll take a shotgun to make that happen...
Treasuries and the U.S. Dollar: Twin Bubbles
The Fed's Policy May Be Responsible for Interbank Lending Seize-Up
Oppose the Treasury's Bailout Plan
I put together a letter you can send to your congressman based on this whole interest rate argument. Have a look. You can copy paste, put your name on it and hope the best happens, that being the Paulson does not get permission to buy foreign bank assets without any accountability or public discretion (yes, this is really in the proposal! I couldn't believe my eyes).
scriabinop23.blogspot....
Click there and copy paste my letter...
The Bull Market in Credit Default Swaps
The Paragraph That Changed the World: Will Treasuries Crash?
No mean to fearmonger - just evaluate reality.
ECB Move: An Opportunity To Trim International Exposure
The ECB is straying from its past alliance with the Fed, it appears. Whatever the reason, whether political or out of fiscal responsibility, it is straying. That has implications, however, since we are not isolated economies, and interdependence is a key trait defining our global trade experiment.
Trichet, ECB Missing the Point with Crude
Remember that speculative money is out of stocks and bonds, looking for a home. That $240B (or whatever the # is) is now pumping commodities.
Also considering the destruction of wealth and reigned in credit (slower velocity of money as well), I am not sure total money supply is so 'pumped' as of recent despite what shadowstats might suggest. Whatever has been sent to the system offsets the hundreds of billions of wealth that have already disappeared (or been transferred to 'subprime' assetholders).
I agree the EU should look out for itself, and it should not have to pay for US policy recklessness as well. But at the same time, my criticism focuses on two issues seperately: 1) rate policy may be ineffective versus actual coordinated world energy policy (and this should have been done a long time ago), 2) the EU is now not backing up the Fed, but they were months ago. The EU has not decoupled from the US economy, and erroneous moves have negative ramifications for them as well, despite the wave of anti-US dollar sentiment that is so popular now.
Sigma Post-Earnings Update: Staying Long, Though Concerns Remain
'Inventory was $34.5 million, an increase of $8.2 million over the previous quarter primarily due to the decrease in our shipment and the purchased VXP inventory... (Per the VXP inventory) We book it at its selling value and that was one of the adjustments that I explained to our gross margin. There’s about a $700k gross margin miss or unrealized amount associated the VXP sales during Q1. As we sell through the purchased inventory we’ll begin to get new inventory in that will actually have a gross margin and that will be another positive affect on our gross margin.'
It'd probably be fair to assume at least half of that inventory build was actually the booking of inventory at selling price on the VXP assets (18m purchased).
Still, 28m of inventories is a little over a buck a share to discount. I don't see your point. On the goodwill and intangible, again similar numbers. Thus the $14 strong buy target.
Peak Oil, Crude Price and Equity Correlation