mkreisel

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  • 2009: Expecting a Massive Rally
    The Fed didn't do anything between 1929 and 1933, and the market managed to pull together 5 sucker rallies 20% or more before finally hitting the bottom.

    These 5 sucker rallies were:
    11/13/1929 - 04/17/1930, 198.69 -> 294.07, 48%
    12/29/1930 - 02/24/1931, 160.16 -> 194.36, 21%
    06/02/1931 - 07/03/1931, 121.17 -> 155.26, 28%
    10/05/1931 - 11/09/1931, 86.48 -> 116.79, 35%
    01/05/1932 - 03/08/1932, 71.24 -> 88.78, 25%
    Dec 29 14:43 pm |Rating: +23 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Expert Commodity Picks for 2009: Jim Rogers and Marc Faber
    Speculating in agriculture commodities is like playing against the god: the weather will either make you or break you. Besides, food production yield can increase lot in many emerging economies if they use more fertilizers and machines. For example, Ukraine's wheat production yield increased 71% last year!

    Thus, I would rather buy oil which is finite and whose well production yield drops with each passing year.
    Jan 04 14:04 pm |Rating: +11 -4 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Broadband: Why Government Investment Is Justified Now
    It was government's over-stimulation of private consumption that led us to this mess in the first place.

    The dilemma now is that it's also the only institution that can get us into a different direction unless Americans are ready for Great Depression II and perhaps World War III. But should our government succeed in turning things around (which I think it will this time), it will have burdened itself with humongous amount of debt; and if the government does not reduce the debt significantly by the time the next bubble bursts, collapse will be unavoidable.
    Jan 02 20:44 pm |Rating: +6 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Turning Nothing Into Something
    Democracy is good. When our leaders screwed up, we dump them.

    In dictatorships, people don't have that luxury.

    Can you imagine 20, 30, or even 40 years of George W. Bush?
    Jan 01 18:54 pm |Rating: +6 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Firefox Browser Share Tops 20% in November; Microsoft Still Number One
    Microsoft is the IBM of 1988. The day of reckoning will come in a few years.

    Bill Gates knows this, and he's bailing out before his own creation destroys his legacy. That's also why he's selling MSFT like there is no tomorrow.

    When was the last time Microsoft delivered any decent product? One can feed off a monopoly only for so long.
    Jan 04 22:52 pm |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Nine Ways to Profit in 2009
    If you want to short China, don't buy FXP -> it's a scam:

    During 2008, FXI dropped from 60 to 30; FXP dropped from 75 to 35!
    Jan 03 22:30 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dennis Gartman: Go Long Infrastructure, Short Everything Else
    The biggest chunk of steel goes into automobiles. Until they recover, steel remains in the dump.

    The next biggest chunk goes to construction, and the Chinese was on a building spree prior to Olympics. Chances of that repeating? Not for several years as the Chinese are more interested now in spurring domestic consumption.

    If you believe that a moderate US infrastructure stimulus will send steel stocks to the sky, prepare to be disappointed. But then again, steel is a highly local market and Nucor may turn out to be a pretty decent investment after all.
    Dec 29 14:19 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • 11 Stocks Selling Below Cash
    This article is hilarious. Looking at cash without at debt is meaningless.

    The author clearly has no idea about investing.

    If you want simple business with ample cash, look at big techs.
    Nov 05 22:35 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Paulson: The Exit Interview
    If the Fed and the Treasury started doing those things back in March 2008, US Treasury yield, gold, oil would be going through the roof, and US$ would be falling through the basement.
    Jan 05 17:20 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Citigroup's Derivatives Reduce Bailout to a Non-Event
    So far the only idiot in town who failed to hedge its derivatives properly is AIG. Big banks such as BAC, C, JPM, WFC all seem to have equal derivative assets as liabilities.

    Berkshire Hathaway also has about $10 billion worth of credit default swaps as pure liabilities, but Buffett has almost $30 billion in cash, and he got $4 billion premium for selling $10 billion of insurance in the first place.
    Jan 04 22:39 pm |Rating: +2 -4 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Recessions and Consumer Spending
    Addicts will not give up their habits, especially if stopping these habits will cause more psychological depression during an economic depression.

    The danger facing PM is that emerging economy people will swap premium brand cigarettes for cheaper alternatives. We don't know whether this is happening, but PM's results for the next 2 quarters will certainly tell us the answer.
    Jan 04 14:28 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What was Buffett Doing in 1974? How About in 2008?
    Buffett's original quote in 1974 was "I feel like an oversexed man in a harem!"

    Let's wait until the first Friday in March and see how much money Berkshire Hathway has committed in equities.
    Jan 04 14:10 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Turning Nothing Into Something
    I don't think people should blame everything on Mr Bush. The root of the problem started way back during the Reagan times when this country embarked on a consuming spree. So was Reagan to blame? Actually no, because Americans' savings rate was astronomical during the late 70s and early 80s. Only as late as 1992, Americans had put more into equities than in savings and liquid investments.

    Here are some numbers from Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds (all numbers in billions):
    Year, Total Household Financial Assets, Equities & Mutual Funds, Cash Assets
    1981, 6951, 958, 1737
    1992, 17054, 3893, 3290
    1999, 34554, 12665, 4078
    2007, 49457, 14272, 7352

    You can clearly see that too much money went into equities during the late 90s under Clinton's watch. Then Bush had no better idea than to stimulate consumptions even more to counter the 2001's recession. Once personal consumption exceeds 70% of the GDP, you know that our country has put too little into investment for the future. So what Bush did was simply continuing what made Reagan and Clinton successful, but every good thing has its limit, and stimulating US personal consumption has reached its limit in 2007.
    Jan 02 14:30 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Cash Is Not Yet King When it Comes to Market Performance
    I think linking one month stock performance with any fundamental metrics is quite bogus. The number you quoted for BRK.A is also wrong: the 106 billion number must include all equity investments that went down the drain during Q4.

    If the author can't get this kind of basic facts right, I have to question the entire premise of this article.
    Dec 31 18:43 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Exxon Apostasy: A Closer Look at the Oil Giant's Real Valuation
    My feeling says that this bear market will finally offer long term value investors a chance to buy XOM.
    Jan 06 03:29 am |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article

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