Marol

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  • Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part III)
    Re cost of living: It's taken seriously, sure, but it also greatly understates. For example, the cost of core food -- that which the poor must buy and can't do better than -- is going up really fast (as it did in the 70s). I mean beans, rice, cheese, eggs, milk, pasta, soon bread. Probably cat food (which people do eat). Energy -- that includes heat and electricity. Even in good times, some American elderly die from lack of heat. Those with NO discretionary money stop being good consumers.

    Also: Over the years, "cost of living," as well as the definition of "unemployed" keep changing, so it doesn't look so bad. As for M3? No longer available. Hmm.

    Finally, Mark -- you're not just betting on two metals, you're also betting on ONLY TWO SPECIFIC COMPANIES. Suppose something happens? It only takes one rotten account or practice, one angry employee, one unanticipated side effect or natural disaster, one mine mess (For example, think of LDK, think -- ? I've forgotten, Canadian mine under water). (Disclosure: I'm long SWC and adding, was long LDK, was considering the third.) Even if the value is there, the investors will be scared.

    There are other companies as well, and other commodities! You're on a tightrope w no safety net -- PLEASE BE VERY CAREFUL!
    May 10 17:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Investing in a Resource-Constrained World (Part III)
    If we hit a worldwide depreasion -- which I'm half-expecting -- that will include deflation. What then happens to the price of commodities, platinum, gold, energy, grain, etc.? Of course they will be relatively less of losers, but don't they lose too?

    Maybe this question is too late, but there may be other informed readers.

    In case there are more readers -- I learn a lot by reading both sides, esp from informed folks w clear opinions. I also appreciate seeing the sources for facts and opinions. It all helps me to decide (rightly or wrongly!)

    I DO NOT appreciate it when people put others down. People are giving their best here, and if others know better, say why -- from a confident, reasonable person, that's enough!
    May 10 17:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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