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Jake Berzon's Comments Stream Stats
- 53 Comments, 24
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- Total Comment Stream rating - = 22
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A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
Firstly, judging by your statements, you appear to be acting as an agent for Fisher Investments. As such, you must be aware of the fact that Fisher Investments is taking legal action against me over a review article I wrote about them: www.odessapage.com/new... . To others, I would suggest that this fact by itself is sufficient to discredit Ken Fisher and disregard Fisher Investments.
Secondly, I am not "recommending stocks" or anything else for that matter. I am not (and do not pretend to be) either a financial adviser or a stock analyst. I am a writer and comment on my personal market moves. Unfortunately, this year, I have been additionally burdened with having to get out of the 69 positions that Fisher Investments put me in. I have gradually done just that over the past three months and expect this process to take another 12 - 18 months to complete. (For various reasons I do not comment on these trades.)
My view is that markets will come down from their current levels this year, which is why I have been a net seller of stocks since August of 2007. The last three trades I wrote about have been a sale of PDS and iShare purchases of Canadian and Japanese currencies. To say that I "keep recommending stocks" after reading my blog, would, at best, be a drastic misrepresentation. On the other hand, even the worst markets for stocks, sometimes present great buying opportunities. When I see what I think to be one of these, I try to take advantage. More times than not I have turned out to be right.
Now, as far as Yen and Japan are concerned. I have been following them continually since my days at Hitachi - something like 14 years now, but only decided that it was time to invest in Japan recently. (Seeking Alpha posted my original article on Japan on 11/8/07 here: seekingalpha.com/artic... ). In it I wrote: "In the past quarter, Japanese currency began decoupling from the US$, appreciating 8% since June." It went up more than another 15% until the middle of March and I only made my recent Yen purchase after it corrected close to 8% from that high and hit a support level. Thus, contrary to your claims, nothing in my actions "assumes that the dollar will keep weakening because it has been weakening."
In both my Canadian currency (FXC) and Japanese currency (FXY) articles I plainly state that I am making these purchases to diversify some of my cash holdings away from $US and not as an "investment"... Is it a coin flip? Perhaps, but I like to think of it as insurance (or hedge) instead. In any case, at least I will stand some chance of having coins to flip, in case the next US president will do what Mr. Bush should have done at the start of his presidency.
One last note, Bob. I enjoy healthy arguments and welcome folks pointing out inaccuracies, oversimplifications, poor assumptions and etc. in my articles, however if you intend to misrepresent what I say and twist my words around, please do us both a favor and stay away.
Sincerely,
Jake
A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
Japan has much lower inflation than the US and BOJ is in a much better position than the Fed to keep inflation at bay by raising interest rates, which should increase demand for Yen further. Looking at the graph of FXY, you will notice that Yen skyrocketed in the first quarter, at the same time that the Japanese were converting their holdings back into Yen. Looks like the rush by the Japanese out of $US debt took a breather in the second half of March and April, but I expect this primary trend to resume. Even after reducing their holdings by more than 5% in the first two months of the year, Japan still owns 12% of all treasuries - more than any other nation.
I am concerned with future changes in the supply of and demand for Yen vs the $US, which is the ultimate driver for market price. Current and expected real rates of return in various markets are certainly a part of the equation driving demand for currencies.
A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
JTX remains in a strong position and is a valuable franchise. The company made some mistakes, which I did not anticipate and it quickly paid for them with a lower stock price. Those problems were temporary and are behind us now.
As inflation picks up further many of the mom and pop shops will be driven out of business or will be forced to raise prices. JTX input costs, on the other hand, will not change significantly and they will be in a great position to gain market share.
Unless management makes some bad mistakes or the US economy collapses completely, this stock should double from here by next summer.
Buying CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar ETF as Loonie Falls Below Dollar
5 Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar Will Weaken Further
5 Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar Will Weaken Further
GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
reactors. I know that others are also winning with their designs. The point is that GE will certainly participate in alternative energy (including nuclear) future and their stock is dirt cheap and very accessible. Which is not the case for Toshiba, Mitsubishi and Areva.
I have read about pebble bed reactors in the past and you are right to say that they sound safer than others. But isn't Germany phasing out their nuclear power plants because of an accident that happened in such a reactor?
Jees is correct and the sentence about 2% growth should have read as follows: "It's that I have a hard time imagining a scenario under which GE's long term earnings growth will be limited to 2% a year, which would justify current stock price. Over 10% is a common expectation among most analysts."
GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
Jim Cramer is fun to watch, but I don't trust his advice. I remember too vividly him recommending NCR after the TDC spin off last year, talking about it as if it had not yet happened. I had just sold NCR at the top and couldn't believe what I was hearing! It quickly dropped from $28 to $24 after that. He seems to like momentum stocks, in general and I don't. You know the old adage, "what goes up, must come down?"
Those of you who are still discussing construction costs, my thesis would have not changed even if plant constructions costs would have not changed increased over the past 20-30 years. (Now, keep in mind that many of those projects were originally estimated at 1/10th there final cost.) The only thing that would have changed is the magnitude of the dramatic effect I was trying to achieve and that, my friends, will not make a difference on the price of GE stock.
GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
GE: Nuclear Growth Galore
1) The $90 Billion figure for building a reactor came from an article in the Christian Science Monitor www.csmonitor.com/2007... . My local utility, IREA published similar numbers. I believe them because 20 years ago it cost $3 billion to construct 1,000 MW reactors like the Limerick 2 query.nytimes.com/gst/... and final costs on these projects often were 10 times the original estimates. New plants will be larger and will cost more. In any case, my point was only to point out that analysts are not counting on this and other near certain upsides coming from GE Energy.
2) From the Q3 of last year to the end of this year The Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects applications for 29 units www.nrc.gov/reactors/n...
3) GE’s 300 or so projects around the Beijing Olympics are a done deal and they have been fully factored in by the analysts. I was alluding to the fact that the relationships GE has surely built in the process will serve it well in the future.
I hope, all is clearer now!
Uncertainty Creates Buying Opportunity in Cigna
Have you thought of volunteering to help Seeking Alpha edit writer submissions? I am sure you would enjoy the work, they would appreciate the help, and the rest of the world would be relieved of improper grammar - sounds like a win-win-win to me!
Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
Why do I think that it will not happen? The reason that RALs exist, is because there is a real need for them. IRS will not be able to stop RALs, without first eliminating a need for them. (Which they can do eventually, but not for a very, very long time.) In the meantime, I think, they will quickly figure out that other alternatives that RAL getters would be forced into will be even worse and their attempt to stop the practice would only hurt those that they are trying to protect.
Of course, I could be wrong and IRS could act irrationally. It wouldn't be the first time they did that, but I have faith! In any case, the downward risk is far smaller than the appreciation potential at this point.