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Jake Berzon's Comments Stream Stats
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A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
Not that this has any relevance to Japan and Yen, but to set the record straight, I have never poisoned any rabbits. I wrote a couple of Bugs Bunny type of short stories, were I cast myself in the role of Elmer Fudd.
Thanks,
Jake
P.S. Send my best regards to Ken. He would never ask you to post this, if it was a matter of "3 people"...
A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
First of all, I would like to thank you for thoroughly studying my blog on odessapage.com/new (even if your goal was to twist my words around). Once again, I would like to remind you that I do not recommended anything to anyone. YTD, I have, in fact, saw some opportunities and purchased Brady (up 10% as of this writing), Pentair (up 19%), GE (down 3%) and added to my Cigna position (down 11% on the added portion and up overall), among others. I have also opined that JP Morgan stock price will benefit at the expense of Bear Stearns. It did significantly the day after I wrote that article, but I did not purchase it, because my Fisher Investments portfolio had too many financials in it as it was, even though JPM was not one of them. Both of my recent currency trades are also up since purchase. This year I have also sold PDS at a more than 35% profit, which I held for 5 months, KG, which went up almost 16% in 6 days that I held it. In this portfolio, so far this year, I am comfortably beating the S&P 500, as I also did last year. I have also gotten rid of 17 of the 69 stocks that Fisher Investment purchased for the account they were managing.
As far as the run up in stocks over the past two months, even with that S&P 500 is still down 12% since its peak in September. Now, please keep in mind, that my basic strategy is to buy on dips of individual high quality stocks in the "right" industries and sell those stocks when they run up. Thus being a net seller is mostly a function of the stocks I have bought having reached my targets for them and not seeing as many opportunities for new buys.
Now, as far as my two tongue and cheek writings about the rabbits - I don't expect everyone to understand or enjoy my humor and to read everything that I write. There are sufficient number of others who "get it" and enjoy it!
Thanks,
Jake
P.S. Please allow me to simply ignore your silly comments on the article that you did not read, because it was "too long."
A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
Firstly, judging by your statements, you appear to be acting as an agent for Fisher Investments. As such, you must be aware of the fact that Fisher Investments is taking legal action against me over a review article I wrote about them: www.odessapage.com/new... . To others, I would suggest that this fact by itself is sufficient to discredit Ken Fisher and disregard Fisher Investments.
Secondly, I am not "recommending stocks" or anything else for that matter. I am not (and do not pretend to be) either a financial adviser or a stock analyst. I am a writer and comment on my personal market moves. Unfortunately, this year, I have been additionally burdened with having to get out of the 69 positions that Fisher Investments put me in. I have gradually done just that over the past three months and expect this process to take another 12 - 18 months to complete. (For various reasons I do not comment on these trades.)
My view is that markets will come down from their current levels this year, which is why I have been a net seller of stocks since August of 2007. The last three trades I wrote about have been a sale of PDS and iShare purchases of Canadian and Japanese currencies. To say that I "keep recommending stocks" after reading my blog, would, at best, be a drastic misrepresentation. On the other hand, even the worst markets for stocks, sometimes present great buying opportunities. When I see what I think to be one of these, I try to take advantage. More times than not I have turned out to be right.
Now, as far as Yen and Japan are concerned. I have been following them continually since my days at Hitachi - something like 14 years now, but only decided that it was time to invest in Japan recently. (Seeking Alpha posted my original article on Japan on 11/8/07 here: seekingalpha.com/artic... ). In it I wrote: "In the past quarter, Japanese currency began decoupling from the US$, appreciating 8% since June." It went up more than another 15% until the middle of March and I only made my recent Yen purchase after it corrected close to 8% from that high and hit a support level. Thus, contrary to your claims, nothing in my actions "assumes that the dollar will keep weakening because it has been weakening."
In both my Canadian currency (FXC) and Japanese currency (FXY) articles I plainly state that I am making these purchases to diversify some of my cash holdings away from $US and not as an "investment"... Is it a coin flip? Perhaps, but I like to think of it as insurance (or hedge) instead. In any case, at least I will stand some chance of having coins to flip, in case the next US president will do what Mr. Bush should have done at the start of his presidency.
One last note, Bob. I enjoy healthy arguments and welcome folks pointing out inaccuracies, oversimplifications, poor assumptions and etc. in my articles, however if you intend to misrepresent what I say and twist my words around, please do us both a favor and stay away.
Sincerely,
Jake
A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
Japan has much lower inflation than the US and BOJ is in a much better position than the Fed to keep inflation at bay by raising interest rates, which should increase demand for Yen further. Looking at the graph of FXY, you will notice that Yen skyrocketed in the first quarter, at the same time that the Japanese were converting their holdings back into Yen. Looks like the rush by the Japanese out of $US debt took a breather in the second half of March and April, but I expect this primary trend to resume. Even after reducing their holdings by more than 5% in the first two months of the year, Japan still owns 12% of all treasuries - more than any other nation.
I am concerned with future changes in the supply of and demand for Yen vs the $US, which is the ultimate driver for market price. Current and expected real rates of return in various markets are certainly a part of the equation driving demand for currencies.
A Few Reasons to Buy Yen
5 Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar Will Weaken Further
5 Reasons Why the U.S. Dollar Will Weaken Further