Jake Berzon

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    • Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      User 177145, you were correct to point out that I was too early jumping into this stock and that it made a bottom much lower than I was anticipating. However, it has already recovered more than 20% over the past two weeks since you made your post.

      JTX remains in a strong position and is a valuable franchise. The company made some mistakes, which I did not anticipate and it quickly paid for them with a lower stock price. Those problems were temporary and are behind us now.

      As inflation picks up further many of the mom and pop shops will be driven out of business or will be forced to raise prices. JTX input costs, on the other hand, will not change significantly and they will be in a great position to gain market share.

      Unless management makes some bad mistakes or the US economy collapses completely, this stock should double from here by next summer.
      Apr 30 15:11 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      I really think that the market is scared silly of just about anything right now and any potentially negative news is getting interpreted and acted upon 3 x the magnitude of what it normally would be. In the case of JTX, what you are interpreting as a 65% chance of an end to the RAL business, I see as the market overreacting to a small chance of this happening.

      Why do I think that it will not happen? The reason that RALs exist, is because there is a real need for them. IRS will not be able to stop RALs, without first eliminating a need for them. (Which they can do eventually, but not for a very, very long time.) In the meantime, I think, they will quickly figure out that other alternatives that RAL getters would be forced into will be even worse and their attempt to stop the practice would only hurt those that they are trying to protect.

      Of course, I could be wrong and IRS could act irrationally. It wouldn't be the first time they did that, but I have faith! In any case, the downward risk is far smaller than the appreciation potential at this point.
      Jan 31 15:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      ValAd, You are correct to say that if RAL income was to go away, JTX would loose a significant profit source. But please keep in mind that IRS is only in business of maximizing tax revenues for the government. They are not in the business of legislating how business is to be conducted. It would appear that IRS has no jurisdiction over the RAL issue. In any case, if the IRS concerns are alleviated through industry action (and I expect that they will be) over the next year, this issue will go away all by itself.
      Jan 28 01:59 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Jackson Hewitt: Taxes at a Discount
      Alex,

      The stock is only worth as much as somebody is willing to pay for it and that depends on the market in general, as much as it does on the company itself. Today, this company's stock is distressed and the market players are jittery, therefore JTX is worth $24/share. Under normal market conditions, this stock would be worth around $30 / share now, which is the price I expect to fetch for it within 6 months.
      Jan 27 11:15 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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