Geoffrey Lordi

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    • The First (and Possibly Last) Euro Decade
      Reinko,

      That's not how everyone here behaves - please don't overgeneralize at SA: the site is about precision and accuracy.

      Best,
      Geoff
      Jan 07 19:54 pm |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The 'Reflation' Top Ten Portfolio
      Hello, Rayno,

      My point re: ProShares etfs is that they are designed for very short term applications and do not definitively track 2:1 or 1:2 over the long term, even after accounting for fees. For example, I'm currently comparing SSO:SPY. At 11.41AM, SSO is down just shy of 100% more than SPY, which makes sense since SSO is an S&P Ultra etf...However, because of the options-strategy based manner which motivates SSO, if the S&P is up 2.1% this month, I cannot expect that SSO will be up 4.2%; similarly, if the S&P is up 6.2% at year end, I cannot expect 12.4% gains (even without considering fees) from SSO. Sometimes this works out for the better (overshot gain performance), sometimes not (vastly undershot performance). A prime case to support the former situation is SDS' one month performance: +5.69% vs the S&P's +5.05%.

      Here are some examples that led folks astray over the last *year*:

      FXI (China) down 47%, but its double-inverse FXP short down 58%;
      EEM (emerging mkts) down 47%, its double-inv EEV down 38%;
      IJR (Russell 2000) down 28.3%, TWM down 22.4%.

      But...
      SPY down 35.1% and SDS up 16.4%;
      XLU down 30.5% and SDP up 15%...

      There are other examples - some where the ProShares funds have overperformed: some where the opposite is true.* And while some folks would gladly take unexpected overperformance, we should be wise to realize that it *isn't* unexpected. After all, ProShares said it best on their website:

      "ProShares are designed to meet daily objectives; results over longer periods may differ."

      * These comparisons valid between 11AM and 12PM on Jan 7.

      Don't get me wrong - I enjoyed your article. I just ask that you don't expect 2:1 *for sure* on your TBT strategy.

      Take care,
      Geoff L
      Jan 07 12:00 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The 'Reflation' Top Ten Portfolio
      Considering that the ProShares double inverse vehicles yield that double inverse *only per day* (and not per week, month, or year), should we assume that you are only holding TBT on certain days? After all, there've been countless examples of what happens to these vehicles when they're not held as intended: for the extremely short term. (Disclosure: we've held SSO, DXD, FXP, and EEV.)
      Jan 07 09:48 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • ETF Deathwatch
      Hey, Roger,

      Good point re: quirky etfs. As long as one can get a good limit price (obviously some have serious volume issues), they've proven to be quite diversifying.

      iPath's cocoa etn (nyse:nib) performed well since inception on July 8 - down just 10.4% last year compared to the S&P's fall of 25.4% after that. Buying near November's lows would put investors ahead of the S&P, as well.

      Long live progressive etf offerings...
      Jan 06 22:46 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Up, Up and Away
      Agreed - the closest I get to fixed income payouts is with preferred debt: oftentimes great yields with less volatility (normally). Of course, the fact that there *is* volatility makes holding preferreds impossible according to some models.

      On another note, isn't it more common practice nowadays to use the "Rule of 120 or 130" when running the age calcs for "standard" treasury/equity planning? I haven't heard of many folks in the field who still use the 100-age rule...
      Jan 06 13:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Will Chesapeake Outperform the United States Oil Fund ETF?
      I appreciate the explanation of your thought process, Davy. However, a takeaway for newer investors is that taxable gains shouldn't play too large a role in the decision to take profits. I used to weigh tax considerations before selling, too, and missed the apex values of some holdings. Gladly pay the tax: book the gain.
      Dec 23 11:01 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • 7 ETFs For a Capital Preservation Portfolio
      PFP is the PowerShares International Listed Private Equity ETF.

      The PShares preferred ETF of which you speak is actually PGF...
      Dec 22 02:52 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets
      There's always a way to profit. ProShares and the like have opened the door for many, me included, to play opposite sentiments on broad sectors. So while longs have been hurting, it's not just institutions that have been making money - many folks who devote a spot of time to strategies other than simple long buy-and-hold have softened the blows to their portfolios - or mitigated them completely.

      Of course, TCD, just as you said: "everything comes to an end". So, then, will the downturn. And then it will be time to be long. :) Best to you.
      Nov 20 22:30 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Walt Mossberg reviews the keyboardless BlackBerry Storm (RIMM). He's lukewarm on its biggest feature, tactile feedback, and is miffed about the lack of Wi-Fi.
      Woo hoo! Tactical feedback: red alert, Captain! Fire torpedos! I'd have settled for tactile feedback... ;)
      Nov 20 11:53 am |Rating: 0 -1 |Link to Comment |View news story
    • Will Berkshire Lose Its Triple-A?
      Few are excellent market timers, and those who time well find replicating that ability difficult indeed. The majority of WB's investments are for the very long term - so positions he might have taken recently do not easily convert to investing advice for folks pouring through articles, hoping to replicate even a portion of positive performance with a shorter time horizon in mind. At this point, an investment in BRK is still beating the S&P for the year, if not by much. I am long BRKB, am and considering purchasing more.
      Nov 19 22:14 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Back to Basics With RVE Hard Assets Producers ETF
      I'd have been more interested in this if there were a mixture between hard assets producers *and* said assets. But then we'd have been dealing with a wholly different product - one conflicting with itself...
      Nov 18 23:46 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • ETF Update: Time For Defensive Plays
      FXP is a double short of the Xinhua/China index (FXI), not the financials. SKF is the double short financials etf...
      Sep 25 02:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Big Week for ETFs
      I hardly think that this is *proof* that "all volume" is caused by program traders...Such blanket statements oversimplify the markets, I believe. And, specifically, there's nothing wrong with investing for a week, a month, or a year. The old belief that "investing" only involved timeframes from, say, five years and up is as arbitrary as saying that no one in GE, for example, for a year is a *true* investor...
      Sep 14 18:01 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • New PowerShares ETF to See Which Way the Wind Blows
      ...Iberdrola was sorely missed in FAN...
      Jul 01 10:07 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • WisdomTree's New Currency Income ETFs
      As of a few weeks ago, CYB and BZF were slated to distribute on a yearly schedule...The Rand and NZ Dollar might be the same...
      Jun 26 12:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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