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  • Nine Ways to Profit in 2009
    Watch out for those ultrashorts (SRS, FXP, SCC, etc). They lose value fast if you hold them for any length of time. FXP (2x short China) lost 50% in 2008 while FXI (1x long China) also lost 50%. SRS (2x short real estate) was down 45% despite an awful year in that sector. Also, some of the ultrashorts (SCC, REW) have very low volume, which can cause extreme price movements.

    I used the ProShares ultrashorts (and to a lesser degree ultras) for much of 2008 until I realized how much they lose just be the passage of time. Beware!
    Jan 03 02:02 am |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Cramer on Ultra-Short ETFs: Just Plain Wrong
    These ultra& ultrashort ETFs are extremely dangerous if you hold them for any length of time. Run some charts and you will see.

    Examples, YTD:
    China: FXI and FXP are both down 50%.
    Oil industry: DUG is down 25% and DIG is down 75%.
    Financials: UYG is down 85%, SKF is up 25%.
    Real estate: URE is down 80%, SRS is down 45%.

    DOG (ProShares 1x short Dow 30) is up 20%, DXD (same except 2x) is only up 15%. The single-leverage did better than the double!

    If you hold on to these ETFs for more than a few days, you are on a losing track. Beware!
    Dec 30 01:06 am |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Best Stocks for 2009
    Perhaps you should take your own advice.


    On Dec 24 03:03 PM nyka wrote:

    > Much ado about nothing. Far too many wasted words; bloated with
    > excessive puff. Blessed is he who has nothing to say and cannot
    > be persuaded to say it.
    Dec 24 17:23 pm |Rating: +5 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Time To Short Treasuries?

    It doesn't seem likely that the Fed will raise short-term rates any time soon. In fact, their statement with the latest cut to 0-0.25% specifically said they intend to keep rates down for a considerable time. Being in TBT, I'm more concerned about whether (and how much) they might buy long treasuries to keep those rates down. However, I don't think rates can stay this low indefinitely.

    On Jan 04 11:09 AM John Lounsbury wrote:

    > One final thought. What to short in the bond universe is not a trivial
    > detail. If the Fed raises interest rates to a point that the entire
    > yield curve inverts, shorting short-term bonds can give a better
    > return than shorting 20 and 30 year bonds.
    Jan 04 15:43 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ignore the Pundits
    "First are these so-called pundits who come on and say they expect the market to be "not as bad" next year as 2008."

    How many of them predicted what happened in 2008 with any accuracy? Before the year, that is.

    Most TV is a waste of time.
    Jan 02 02:06 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Here Comes a Consumer Killer
    Cards are very convenient, but they are a terrible way to borrow. The best way to borrow is NOT. Use a debit card and make sure there is money in your bank account BEFORE you buy something.
    Nov 30 18:54 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Shallowest Generation
    These problems started before the Boomer generation. When was the last truly balanced federal budget? Under Eisenhower, maybe? Johnson faked one by pushing expenditures into neighboring years. Clinton's "balanced budgets" ignore that we spend the Social Security surplus, leaving nothing to pay the boomers and beyond when retirement comes.

    Politicians have long known that they get reelected by spending more than they tax, and borrowing the difference. This has been going on since before most of the boomers were born. When Reagan became president in 1981 (he wasn't a boomer, was he?), the national debt was $1 trillion. When Bush I (still no boomer) left office 12 years later, it was $4 trillion. It increased by $1T under Clinton, who at least made a decent attempt at the problem. Remember all those Republicans telling us how the economy would fall apart because Clinton raised taxes at the beginning of his first term?

    And then we come to our current disaster of a President, George Bush II. Yes, he is chronologically a boomer, but in reality he is the Greatest Generation's last gift to its children. What can you say about an incompetent, shallow loser like that, except how sad it is that he was put into this office, in large part by religious fanatics who want to return to an earlier time that we have thankfully left behind. It is the Republicans' unwillingness to tax enough to cover government expenditures that has largely created our financial disaster.

    The Greatest Generation deserves far more blame for this mess than their children. At least they are pretty much out the door, having enjoyed the full benefit and left the mess for their descendants. Ultimately, our current situation is the legacy of our military and economic victory in World War II.
    Nov 02 15:37 pm |Rating: +3 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
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