john haskell

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  • What's Going on with Bond Insurers?
    Steve- since you are a total newbie to this area, a bit of advice. Don't worry about the monoline ratings.

    The path has already been cleared by ACA- that is, the path from AAA to bankruptcy. The rating agencies have been practicing up for this, taking AAA rated CDO's down to CCC in a single step. They won't downgrade the monolines, the monolines will just show up in BK court, blaming Ackman the whole way.

    Marty Whitman is a smart investor and he will lose his entire investment. He will still be smart, but this one particular idea wasn't. It's OK- Buffett bought shares in USAir after all.
    Mar 05 09:55 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ambac: More Smoke and Mirrors?
    Ay Caramba! Why then did MER take a 1/3 writedown on their AAA rated CDO paper? Why are SIV's around the world being put into runoff? Why did a recent WaMu securitization with 92% of the pool rated AAA have 15% defaults/foreclosures within 12 months of the securitization? Because these assets are not "AAA" any more than Ambac itself.

    Some of us remember Enron. Other members of the investment community apparently need to be re-taught these lessons every 5 years or so.
    Feb 27 16:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ambac Financial: Get Into Bond Insurance Before Buffett Does
    I hope Mr Snyder will continue to update his investment case. I look forward to posts entitled "Buy Ambac Surplus Notes in Bankruptcy," "Ambac Cancelled Stock Will Be Reinstated By BK Judge," "Ambac BK Judge Is An Idiot," and finally "Buy BRK.A For Foolproof Access To Muni Insurance Market."
    Feb 27 16:51 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • A Bank Led, Bank Insurer Bailout?!
    Prescient 11 above does a good job of summarizing the "what me worry" line of argument. The "monolines" are doing great because muni issuers pay them fat fees for doing nothing (and prescient11, despite his moniker, assumes this state of affairs will continue indefinitely).

    "Prescient" then goes on to assert that Citi is "happy to hold" Ambac insured assets - (what?!) and then argues that anyone who does not have full information (which ABK and C of course are not releasing) "is an idiot."

    Mr Prescient- all you need to know was revealed to you in Stan O'Neal's last CC as head of MER in which he said they took 30%+ writedowns on AAA rated secs. ABK and MBIA insure far more such paper than MER ever owned. It's just a matter of time. Rage, rage against the dying of the light if you wish, but these companies are going out and they are going out hard.
    Feb 26 14:52 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Thoughts on Ambac Bailout, MBIA, Berkshire's Muni Bond Backing
    every time someone tries to point out that the monolines are teetering, he has to put up with all this "talking your book" BS.

    It's as if Churchill, after warning the British people about Hitler for 8 years, and after watching the Germans sweep across France, had to listen to the Chamberlain supporters moan, "yeah, but you are just talking your book."

    Let someone explain to me how a reinsurer can simultaneously be rated Aa3 and have its equity be worthless. Until those are reconciled, I recommend that the "talking your book" fools keep silent.
    Feb 25 09:17 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ackman's Plan for Bond Insurers Is the Best So Far
    management simultaneously claims their structured finance losses will be small, while maintaining that Ackman's proposal is self interested and unacceptable. That's all you need to know- especially if you are an Ambac or MBIA shareholder.
    Feb 22 16:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Ackman's Plan for Bond Insurers - Talking His Own Book
    hmmm, well then let the insurers sell their muni books to Buffett for 150% of the total future premium income...wait, that proposal was made by someone who had an interest in the outcome, so should be ignored.

    Here's another proposal- lend/invest billions to the insurers because this current market trouble is just temporary and will blow over soon (in the estimate of the CEO-of-the-day at Ambac). Oh wait- that proposal is also tainted by self interest.

    OK then here's a third- Eric Dinallo suggests the monolines just fraudulently transfer assets out of the insurance subs to make sure there are funds to cover the muni bonds. I wonder if he might be interested in the outcome here?

    All I'm asking for, is for someone to spend a huge amount of effort on structuring a solution to this problem despite his having absolutely no interest in what that outcome might be.
    Feb 22 16:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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