johnthebear

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  • Can Capitalism Survive Its Latest Entanglement With Socialism?
    Google Community ReInvestment Act or check out Wikipedia for a very good discussion of the history leading to the massive bailout.

    en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...


    If you are truly interested in why the United States and the rest of the world are possibly heading to a disaster greater than the "Depression" read all about in Wikipedia.

    What you will read will make your blood boil and tell you the truth without political distortion.

    There are many other web sites that discuss and analyze the financial failure of Fannie and Freddie. Just take a look with Google. You don't have to take my word for it.

    Just search for Community_Reinvestment...
    Sep 29 04:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dow at 8000 Is Not Out of the Question
    Following Friday's trading in which the Dow Jones finally hit the -20% threshold to be called a "Bear Market", I just have to wonder when the talking heads will finally give in and call the current economic downturn a:

    "RECESSION"
    Jun 28 09:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Wednesday Options Outlook: ORCL, IYR, CMCSK, ANF, ETN, MDCO, BAC, BA
    It is very hard to understand the point the writer is trying to make. So what direction does he assume each stock to take in Thursdays trading... IYR is my main interest as I invest in SRS at 2:1 ratio?

    Please boil it down to your estimate of direction and magnitude for each of these positions for tomorrow's trading.

    Thanks.
    Jun 26 00:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dow at 8000 Is Not Out of the Question
    Agree, 8,000 is very likely. Keep in mind that all of the world indexes are now trading at or below their 200 day moving average. That has to tell you something.

    The problem is we are in the early phase of global recession and the emerging markets will continue falling, probably over correcting to the downside, just as US markets typically do and then take time to test and retest before a solid base is formed that can cause investors to regain confidence and invest again.

    No one can claim to be an expert...these are truly remarkable times like nothing we have seen before.

    I find oil related stocks and agriculture still to be the most promising on the positive.

    The commercial real estate market is toast and there simply is not enough money in the world to sustain the high prices and fund the over rated mortgages to keep prices up. This true all over the world. When Capitalization rates on income property are lower than typical mortgage rates of the past century, you can be sure that the fall will be nasty in the commercial market.

    I have SRS, FXP, OIL, TRA as my primary holdings, about equal positive and negative positions. Both doing quite well. Also have puts in FXI.
    Jun 24 23:19 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How Cheap Are U.S. Bank Stocks?
    The thing that has not been factored into the value of C mer leh etc is that there is no future income in the bundle business. No more huge fees. That line of works is gone. Transparancy is the name of the game for the future, even for hedge funds! Banks will go back to looking at lower L/V ratios.

    And leveraged buyouts...forget it, can't be done like in the old days. It is a different world out there. Remember how many have lost their jobs at each of the investment banks? They are no longer needed. The income they would have produced is forever gone! So, are banks really all that cheap? I doubt it. Everyone is looking in a rear view mirrror, instead of looking down the road, but even those that do, not beyond the end of their nose!
    Apr 18 13:36 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Housing Market Tracker - Subprime In Large and Small Banks
    Dear Judy: I asked about how should office buildings, shopping centers etc. that make up the REITs portfolio must be handled under the GAAP accounting rules. When interest rates rise (comparable to junk bond yields) they form a component of the capitalization rate. The net operating income may not have changed (yet) due to rising vacancy rate and slowing of the growth of lease rates, but the higher cap rates divided into the income mean that property values decline. The best property may have a cap rate of 5% prior, but now might only get a 8% cap rate. This means say that 1000/.05 = 20,000 property value vs 1,000/.08= 12,500 property value, which means a 37.5% drop in property value. So when you mark to market with the higher cap rate, there is huge discount.

    So, I am wondering what the rules are that apply to REITs? How often are properties appraised? Will this apply to the first quarter earnings report later this month. Also, will they also be required to mark down all the CMBS they hold to market and if so, how will this be done?

    So, I would appreciate your help. Thanks

    John
    Apr 10 21:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Housing Market Tracker - Subprime In Large and Small Banks
    You asked for comments... please help me understand how mark-to-market will affect the REITs in the IYR index?

    Thanks
    Apr 08 21:23 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
    The Wall Street Journal reported that General Growth Properties and Simon Property Group are planning to sell shares to raise cash, which would dilute current share holders value. This is comparable to a recent experience in England. The press reported that cap rates in England were lower than mortgage rates and the REIT was forced to sell shares to raise cash for redemption's.

    In looking at the balance sheet of Simon Properties, the long term debt was reported to be $19 billion in real estate which was financed with $17 billion in long term debt. I question the terms of the long term debt. It has been reported that 59% of the mortgage debt for commercial properties was interest only! Further raising doubt is the report by Mood's that the loan to value ratio was typically 110% or more.

    So, the reason for the sale of shares may be that the interest only loans at substantially interest rates have caused a problem for Simon.
    Mar 26 00:41 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Financials and Retail: Not as Dire as They Seem
    Valuking, so where am I wrong? I am not a slave to the media and the administration that wants to put lipstick on a pig. It is the truth that hurts so bad.

    Sorry about that, but facts speak for them selves, regardless of political spin.
    Mar 09 13:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Financials and Retail: Not as Dire as They Seem
    It would nice if Goldy was alive and well, but she is dead. The banks have no money to finance buyers of all those foreclosed homes. Remember, it takes new loans to enable buyers to those homes. Without new buyers, the housing market cannot recover.

    The US treasury simply does not have the money sitting around to finance a home for everyone who wants one. Those who lost their homes are now homeless, looking for an apartment to rent.

    Also, the same real estate bubble we have had also exist in England, Ireland, Span, China and many other countries around the world. Lets face it the writedowns mean the money is lost.... gone, never to return. And the 7 trillion already lost in the stock markets all over the world will not recover enough to repay those who lost their wealth. So, were does the worlds wealth end up? The oil exporting countries. They have the wealth, not us. They are buying into our financials for a reason.

    Next, elect Obama be president and you can start praying with the koran, just like the one he used when he was sworn in to the Senate. Tough to be a prophet.
    Mar 08 22:43 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Housing Market Tracker - Subprime Review
    Then, when you put into the equation that most stock indexes around the world are below or only slightly above their 200 day moving average, it really gets scarry. No wonder everyone is pretending that we are not already in a recession.
    Dec 19 23:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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