johnthebear

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  • Fund Managers Sound Off on BRIC Markets
    What a crisis? There is no true safe hiding place to park capital during the downturn that seems to be gaining momentum.

    I talked with a Merrill Lynch insider yesterday and he expressed concern for the bond market, that ratings are suspect at all levels. His main focus is 17 day treasury. His main concern is return of principal rather than return on capital with so much at stake. My friend said that some money market funds are now including auction rate securities, trying to boost yield.

    I agree with the tone and conclusions of the writer. Even Brazil is now trending back to it's 200 day MA.

    It is amazing to continue to hear so many of the talking heads call for increased exposure to China and BRIC countries as an alternate for US. It does not appear that have a clue as to the 53% decline already experienced off the high of the China Bubble. The loss of government controlled oil prices will certainly be a shock to the China and India market. Best get out or be short on both markets IMO. I own FXP which was up 10% on Friday.
    Jun 21 16:53 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Collapse of the BRIC Trade
    A more interesting comparison is the NASDAQ at it's high in year 2000 compared with the EEM, which is the emerging markets exchange traded fund.

    You will find that EEM even today is so much higher than the dot.com bubble represented by the NASDAQ when it was trading at 5,000. You will need to look at a chart that allows a 10 year comparison.

    If you follow the trend lines down from the NASDAQ high to the bottom in 2003 and compare that with the trend lines of EEM and FXI (China), you will have a good understanding of what to expect... which is that the bottom could not possibly occur before the end of 2008 and a secondary bottom could be far beyond that when the full depth of the CMBS hit the fan, if past experience is any guide to the future.
    Apr 01 23:15 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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