johnthebear

Comment Stream » COGO

Comment Stream
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
  • China Stocks: Is Now the Time to Buy?
    Sorry, FXP was up 4.47% today, FXI was down 1.85% today. (FXP is a double short of FXI)
    Sep 02 18:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • China Stocks: Is Now the Time to Buy?
    Not the time! You should read and try to understand what Michael Pettis said in his article on Sept. 1 "China: Slowing Economy" Here is my response to Mr. Pettis which applies to you as well.

    Michael, I agree that anticipated consumption for the Olympics was a major factor in growth to date, so it reasonable to expect a large slowdown in consumer demand as well as commercial demand for supplies etc. in the coming months.

    Likewise, you mention huge spending on infrastructure, including massive road building projects. In a communist country it may be very easy to take the land (compared with USA), but it still takes a long time to develop plans and actually begin construction. Then, I wonder about the workers on such projects. I would think they would be taken from the farming areas and paid very little (slave wages with long hours). This suggest relatively little impact for the next 3 years on the urban economy.

    You mention they consider cutting taxes. I have difficulty in understanding their economy. Do they have an IRS and full financial reporting? And Jail if you don't pay? What are the relative tax rates for rich and poor people and for business? Hard to figure how much of a cut would make a difference, and how it would relate to the government budget. I assume they can print money pretty fast when they want, just as we can!

    As for their government spending habits, their government sounds downright democratic! Then when you add in "strike" in a communist country, it really sounds like they are getting ready for much bigger change!

    "I expected there to be a burst in securitization taking place as banks shifted loans off balance sheet." Don't tell them how stupid that would be. Let them screw up like our banks. Did you hear that the Swiss and German banks are going to have to raise their capital ratios? Up from 2.5 to 5 percent. Still low in comparison to our banks. The off-balance sheet theme sounds likely to me, because it is sneaky!

    Sounds like they have their own subprime problem with securitization much like ours. Unbelievable, that they cannot learn from our mistakes.

    FXI was up 4.47% today, following my theme that what is bad for China is good for John!

    I am looking for FXP to more than double from here.

    Sep 02 18:25 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

johnthebear's Comments Stream Stats

  • 256 Comments, 3 , 0
  • Total Comment Stream rating - = 3