johnthebear

Comment Stream » DBA

Comment Stream

Filter comments by:

Highest rated Latest comments

Or filter by symbol:

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David, I have noticed a disconnect between FXI and the double short FXP for the last few trading days.

FXI moved down today, but FXP barely moved. Any idea why this happened or how FXP climbed to 219 just before the close on October 9th while FXI moved to 24.31? I am heavily invested in FXP and it looks to me like the gap on FXI at 28.38 should fill soon. But, will FXP give the appropriate move up?

SRS and IYR are moving as expected with the 2:1 ratio.

Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Oct 14 22:24 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Global Liquidity Crisis: What Now?

The problem with your analysis as I see it, is that you have not factored in the major correction coming in commercial real estate, world wide. Regional and local Banks will be failing with 60% of their loans in commercial real estate.

Capitalization rates were two low, based on expected appreciation and low interest rates. They will begin to rise with the interest rates and added risk premium due to rising vacancy. Prices of commercial real estate will be falling, as will industrial property with rising unemployment.

This means, that while residential property values may bottom in 2010, there will be a longer delay before commercial real estate will show signs of recovery. New construction might be expected in a more normal recession sponsored by government, but with lower property taxes and failing state governments (CA and NY etc) there is no source of wealth to back up the economy. Then if you really want to get depressed, what will happen as social security tax revenues fall and the system breaks down sooner than expected?

A long bitter road is ahead, better tread carefully.

Might be a that WW III will be needed to end the mess. This could all happen much sooner than you expect. What happens if there is an Iran-Israel war between the time of the election and inaguration? Get right with GOD?
Oct 04 23:32 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets, More

"WE MUST VOTE OUT ALL INCUMBENTS no matter which party they are in."

There can be no change with a "new" president, with the same bunch of FOOLS that got us in the mess.
Oct 01 09:01 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Jim Bunning got it right:

Paulson, you were CEO of Goldman Sachs from 1999 to 2006 yet you did not know the problems that were created by the CDO and securitization of dumb subprime mortgages and the lack of oversight!

His comany was a leader in changing the law in 1999 during Clinton's term that allowed all this crap to happen! How can he claim such ignorance? Are we dumb enough to buy that line?

The lowest quality mortgages were still being written all through Paulson's term.

They have not talked at all about commercial mortgages. They will be marked to market, a cut of 25% or more in lost value. Talk about a huge loss. General Growth Properties REIT fell 25% yesterday because of inability to re-finance it's debt. I hear that McDonald's was denied new financing by Bank of America because of a shortage of capital!

There are many properties that are mortgaged for $1 billion or more! Just think,

700 properties at $1billion each would consume all the money Paulson is seeking!

And now he would include credit cards and student loans!

What in the world does he mean by transparency and oversight? Wait till he spends all $700 Billion taking care of his wall street friends before he informs congress of his strategy?

Oversight should allow review and reports on a weekly basis to Congress, and with the opportunity for congress to disagree with his assessment of what to do. So far, I see no way for Congress to ever take a look at how he is doing!

Looks like we are heading to caves, automatic weapons and canned food for survival! God help us!
Sep 23 13:48 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Next day, (Thursday) FXP is down $35 to $108

So how will proposed rules on short selling affect FXI and IYR?

Should I stop using Proshares anyone?

Sep 19 00:01 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

FXP was up $30 per share today to $144 new all time high.

FXI is on it's way to $20/share.

Still no word on how they make it work. I love it, and hope it never breaks.

Sep 18 00:05 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Thanks again David.

Have you heard how they do FXI/FXP to make it 2:1 on a consistant basis?

Regarding FXI, it looks to me like the folks on this side of the pond are finally looking at what is happening to .ssec and .hsi and deciding China is not such a good place to be and so they are selling FXI. Some have said if you believe the market is heading down big after the Olympics, why not sell now?

FXP really looks good here.
Aug 12 22:14 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Thanks for quoting the comments made by Senator Bunning. I too am from Kentucky, and he is absolutely correct in his analysis of the FED. We could lose our freedom if we cannot recover from this huge mess in a reasonable time period.

By the way, have you heard from ProShares on the mechanics of how they do the double short?
Jul 16 09:32 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David, you said that you would be talking to ProShares on Monday so that you could help me understand the mechanics of how they do the 2:1 double shorts for FXI/FXP and IYR/SRS.

Really would like to hear your thoughts on this subject. Thanks, John
Jul 03 08:52 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David, I am still hoping for an explanation of how ProShares actually makes the 2:1 SRS/FXP work. I love it and I am not complaining, it is just that I keep adding to my positions in both and I would like to be able to explain it to my wife!

Thanks, love your charts and comments on each.

John
Jul 02 00:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

David, Thank you for your detailed charts and analysis.

I follow FXP and SRS closely and now you have exposed me to some other possibilities.

Just one question: How do they work the system to do the 2:1 percent adjustment for FXP? I have made great profits on both, but never fully understood how they can keep as close mathematically as they do. Can you help me out here?
Jun 27 13:58 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

The bear market continues... and quickens. Have you used your 10 year chart and compared ^SSEC, EEM, FXI and the NASDAQ of year 2000? The China bubble is clear and I forsee FXI in 60-70 range by the fall.

Thanks for your charts, very interesting.
Jun 12 08:24 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Thursday Outlook: Where's the Big Fall?

It is amazing that the author did not comment on the fact that ALL of the world stock market indexes are already below their 200 day moving average. This is easy to follow if you use Yahoo Finance, Day Watch chart with the indexes and the 200 day moving average listed, as well as the decline today and the change from the high, etc.

With all the exchanges below their 200 day moving average and making new lows.... How can anyone be positive on this market? All of the emerging markets are included in this statement. In my opinion the market is in total denial when it continues to make a big case for a bottom here. More "dead cat bounces" are ahead!
Mar 20 08:28 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Commodity Super Cycle: Ready to Rumble in 2008

So when does the China government take a serious look at inflation? When do they raise interest rates to reduce inflation and slow their economy? Will it take a major food riot to make them realize how serious this is for the stability of their government as well as the world economy?

The Japan market was very inflated and their market reached 40,000 in 1990 and just today fell below 15,000. A similar move is likely for China IMO.
Jan 03 21:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Thursday Outlook: Sectors and International

Darn, there are so many shoes still hanging by a thin lace, and who knows what they are tied to!

No one is talking about CDO's...they are focused on the obvious residential mortgage problem and ignoring the huge commercial loan problem which will hit the fan as vacancy begins to rise. Hard to pay a 110% mortgage with increased vacancy.
Nov 15 04:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

johnthebear's Comments Stream Stats

256 Comments, 3 , 0
Total Comment Stream rating - = 3

Free E-Newsletters
Wall Street Breakfast - Sample Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought. Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only. Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week. Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand... Email continues...
The Macro View - Sample Seeking Alpha - The Macro View Market Outlook An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Oil Price Oil Below $75: Increased Chance of OPEC Production Cuts by Money Morning Oil Down 48% from Highs by Bespoke Investment Group Oil & Gas Headed Lower as Economy Strikes Consumers by Michael Filloon Economy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
Investing Ideas - Sample Seeking Alpha - Investing Ideas Cramer's Picks Farewell Financial Bear Raids - Cramer's Mad Money (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Better Picks - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Perhaps Industrials... Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Long Ideas Utilities Beginning to Generate Interest for Longs by Joe Kunkle The Long Case for Encore Capital by Value Investor Insight 2009: The Year of the Channel for SaaS Vendors? by Jeff Kaplan Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U Market Behaves Sanely - Fast Money Recap (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Short Ideas Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street by Investment U Salesforce.com: Pricey and Coming Down Fast by Charlie Bottle Google: 3Q Results Reveal Chinks in the Armor by Mark Krieger Email continues...
Jim Cramer's Picks -
Sample

Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
Email continues...
Stocks & Sectors - Sample Seeking Alpha - Stocks & Sectors Internet eBay: Q3 Looks Good but Q4 Guidance Disappoints by Greg Feirman Is Google Feeling Lucky? by Sam Gustin Why Today Could Suck for Tech by Kevin Maney Media A Triple Financial Whammy Afflicts Newspapers by Ken Doctor Three Years On, Buying MySpace Looks Like One of Murdoch's Smartest Bets by Erick Schonfeld How Will Arbitron Fare in This Market? by Sreeni Meka Telecom Ten Ways to Invest in Louisiana by Stockerblog Earnings Preview: Electro-Optical Engineering by theflyonthewall.com Shared Docks Via WiFi All the Rage by Dean Bubley Financial Switzerland Strengthens Its Banks; Short Interest Remains Low by Jessica Johnson Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole LIBOR Shows Worst Is Yet to Come for Credit Markets by Keith Fitz-Gerald Email continues...
Global Markets - Sample Seeking Alpha - Global Markets China An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy USANA Health Sciences Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Perfect World Announces Share Repurchase Program by Trader Mark China: Hot Money Inflows Down, Nervousness Up by Michael Pettis India Indian Economy Has Much to Cheer About by Equitymaster India: RBI Cuts Cash Reserve Ratio by Equitymaster India: Markets Continue Downward by Equitymaster Japan Sanyo Enters Thin-Film Market, Goes Up Against Sharp by Greentech Media Asia Four International Dividend Stocks to Watch by David Hunkar Eastern Europe Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
Alternative Energy Investing - Sample Seeking Alpha - Alternative Energy Alternative Energy Seven Stocks for an Impending Apocalypse by H.J. Huneycutt Solar Shares Under Pressure From Credit Crunch and Pricing by Eric Savitz Trina Solar Looks Good, Though Market Yawns by Trader Mark The Electric Car Market: Wise Energy Use Stocks by Tom Konrad Investing in the Power of the Sea
ETF Daily - Sample Seeking Alpha - ETF Daily Sector ETFs Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald Utilities Beginning to Generate Interest for Longs by Joe Kunkle Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U New ETFs First Trust Launches Infrastructure ETF with Global Reach by Index Universe Overview and Analysis of the Global Generic Drug Industry by Mike Havrilla Emerging Market ETFs Brazil Is the Best of BRIC by Carl T. Delfeld Playing the Market in Difficult Times by Jason Hamlin
The Daily Dispatch - Sample Seeking Alpha - Daily Dispatch Wall Street Breakfast Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby US Market An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Housing & Real Estate Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald Another 'Root Cause' That Isn't: Tumbling Home Prices by Tim Iacono Transcripts TrueBlue, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Polycom, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript ETF Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald
We don't spam