jcrash

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257 Comments

    • Fri May 9th 20:59 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodities: Bubble or Not?
      bubble
      View article »
    • Fri May 9th 10:19 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Currency, Precious Metal and Futures ETFs: Don't Get Caught in the Tax Trap
      Very enlightening. Thanks.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 15:23 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The WSJ Is Wrong on the Housing Crisis
      You need some more old people in your family.

      At 87, my grandfather is still living in his house with his wife. Yes, she has had 3 heart attacks and he has had colon cancer, but they are on their own, at home.

      If you think 70 is "time to retire to a nursing home" you are seriously out of touch.
      View article »
    • Wed May 7th 10:26 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Fannie Mae Survive?
      This seems to be a no brainer. $2.4 Trillion in mortgages? 2% of that is
      $48 Billion. I can't see how they don't lose that much which is more than their equity base.
      View article »
    • Tue May 6th 12:46 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Expecting Weakness in Nvidia on Cautious Goldman Note
      They "await" a better entry? They had one last week. Maybe they should've been paying attention.

      puhleaze.
      View article »
    • Sat May 3rd 20:48 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two
      Use interest rates to calculate the payment on said houses. Normalize that to 1972. Very simple. Average annual home mortgage rates are readily available. You want unaffordable? Try the 16+% mortgage rates in the early 80's...that's why those years are above 2.0. See how big a deal that is compare to the paltry 30% difference between 3.5 and 4.5 on his chart? Even though ratio of price to income is higher in 2005, the ratio of PAYMENT to income would be lower...much lower in fact.
      View article »
    • Fri May 2nd 11:39 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gas Tax Holiday Is Populist, But Pointless
      Jackooo, I'm not contradicting myself. Gas needs to cost enough that people have no choice but to cut back. And fuel standards are stupidly low. Basically, they need to outlaw SUV's and non-commercial truck purchases.

      Too many idiots are driving around in V-10 duallies taking their kids to soccer practice.
      View article »
    • Fri May 2nd 10:55 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two
      I live in Tulsa, Oklahoma (actually a suburb of it, but close enough). Home prices here have not declined.

      You can buy a NEW 3,000 sq. ft. house for less than $250,000. Given interest rates at 5.5 to 6%, that makes it pretty affordable.

      But, in general I'm using the data provided by the author. Using his data, 2008 should be able a 1.35 on my normalized scale. That is about the same as most of the last 20 years, and much better than the late 80's and early 90's (not to mention orders of magnitude better than the early 80's).

      I'm not a big believer in price to rent for several reasons, first of which is home sales are skewed to new homes and home rents are skewed to older homes thats like saying a 1970's VW bug is equivalent to a new Prius.
      View article »
    • Fri May 2nd 10:46 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Few Crumbs of Good Housing News - Housing Tracker
      Dude, no one reads comments like that.
      View article »
    • Thu May 1st 16:43 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two
      Makes no sense? So, if I can buy something at 0%, do you think I might pay a bit more than if I can buy one at 20%?

      At some point it makes a difference. Your SAYING it makes no sense, makes no sense.

      At 0%, I personally can afford say a much nicer car than I could at say 20%. His whole argument is based on affordability. If you want to base an argument on affordability then don't throw up a graph that isn't based on what someone actually pays - not what they pay FOR.

      If you instead, want to base an argument on the tightening of credit standards and increased downpayments, then gimme a graph on that.

      Sure, you had a housing bubble in Schiller's 20 markets. But I don't live there, and many people don't. That's why his first graph is actually pretty tame compared to the second one.

      A good house is more afforable now than at many times within the last 20 yrs, although he would have you not believe that.
      View article »
    • Thu May 1st 15:08 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gas Tax Holiday Is Populist, But Pointless
      I don't understand why people aren't laughing at McCain and Clinton for supporting this Tax Holiday. $.18 per gallon less when you are already paying over $3.50 per gallon is pointless. It's not like people are going to say, WOW gas is JUST $3.32, let's drive a lot more.

      They need to fix the problem...MANDATE higher fuel standards and possibly RAISE taxes on gas. Definitely, they should remove any and all tax credits for oil production.
      View article »
    • Thu May 1st 14:44 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two
      Normalized your graph, once again to payments instead of price.

      2007 1.397857594
      2006 1.478314538
      2005 1.432964409
      2004 1.325094098
      2003 1.232645673
      2002 1.244852812
      2001 1.240424748
      2000 1.348800449
      1999 1.285290782
      1998 1.222953977
      1997 1.297901204
      1996 1.323260469
      1995 1.336008158
      1994 1.387439202
      1993 1.260211257
      1992 1.400404179
      1991 1.497202082
      1990 1.580267027
      1989 1.583155393
      1988 1.559526208
      1987 1.546642267
      1986 1.546642267
      1985 1.808460137
      1984 2.008946707
      1983 1.973803225
      1982 2.365982548
      1981 2.487876013
      1980 2.134449551
      1979 1.702172503
      1978 1.447718253
      1977 1.340200308
      1976 1.256437789
      1975 1.279111413
      1974 1.204463997
      1973 1.059771781
      1972 1


      Not nearly so bad as your graph makes it look, and your graph actually doesn't even make it look awful.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 29th 09:32 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are US Inflationary Concerns Inflated?
      A) Less inflation is still inflation. Just because gas went up LESS, doesn't mean things are good.
      .
      B) Shadowstats is a web site built to MAKE MONEY. Of course it is going to be sensationalist. Ignore it until he makes his newsletter free.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 28th 10:14 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      9 Reasonably Priced Momentum Stocks
      Everything is listed as X% below its 52-week low. You might want to correct that.
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 13:42 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Impending Mortgage Crisis
      This is incorrect "regarding the interest rate discussion jcrash started:
      Simply put, a 6% interest rate will pay 50% more interest than a 4% interest rate- and will effectively increase the house payment by 50%."

      If you used simple ratios based on interest rates, your numbers are all off. Obviously a 1% rate loan does not have half the payment of a 2% rate loan. Bad math, my friend.
      View article »