helplessobserver

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  • GE's Dilemma: Sensible Business vs. Rating at Any Cost
    Sax,
    Like most analysts you are late to the party. The smart money smelled trouble when GE, without reason, dropped from 42 to 32. That was the time for short sales, not now when the reason for the first drop is coming into view.
    Jan 02 11:00 am |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Lending Lunacy Continues as GMAC Gives Out More Bad Loans
    I recommend we all read countrybanker's post very carefully. He speaks from experience and sanity.
    Jan 01 16:35 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • GMAC's $6 Billion: Washington Acquires a Car Company
    It is curious that the courts are watching all this illegality from the bleachers. There are all types of fair trade laws that are being circumvented here. How can a bank compete for a auto loan that is a loser when it is written? Where pray tell is the level playing field?
    Dec 30 22:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Lessons from the Madoff Scandal: Deciding Which Funds Are Worth an Investment
    Buffett knows markets. The secular bear we are in will run to 2018, the puts will lose time premium and vaporize in a new secular bull we will be in at their expiration. Meanwhile GS and GE will be paying 10% on the premium he collected. All the Madoff scandal proves is easy come, easy go. Few of those rich investors worked for their money otherwise they would have invested it with care. Also feeder funds getting 2 and 20 is simply stupid any way you look at it.
    Dec 30 09:38 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • A Victory for GMAC Holdouts?
    Bond investors are a lot smarter than equity types and they just showed it. Let GMAC go under would be a mini Lehman collapse and they knew it. Lots of little investors are also involved with unsecured notes. What a mess. We used to have a capitalist system with stupid investors, now all we have is stupid investors including the US Treasury.
    Dec 30 09:19 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Fear and Loathing in 2009
    Todd,
    I think your clear thinking is on the mark for 2009-2010. Most investors do not know we entered a secular bear market in 2000. The Oct. 2007 high on the SP is the end of a cyclical bull market within this bear. Secular bull and bear markets last a long time often 15 to 20 years, witness the last secular bear from 1966 to 1982 and the secular bull from 1982 to 2000.
    Dec 24 11:53 am |Rating: +3 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Madoff Breach of Trust: Essence of U.S. Economy Was Violated
    I am currently reading Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan". A Black Swan is highly improbable event that has devastating consequences that the human mind, in retrospect, figures we should have seen coming - but we didn't. Madoff has sent a host of Swans to investors worldwide. People who receive a Swan will remember it the rest of their lives.
    Dec 19 16:17 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Illicit Relationship Between Goldman Sachs and Paulson
    When all this is sorted out Hank Paulson will have the same status as Bernie Madoff except he won't be in jail. GS will still be around wreaking financial havoc.
    Dec 19 12:18 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • GE Finally Enters the Zone of the Unknown
    Mark has it right, the short signal was last year when the stock for no evident reason tanked from 42 to 32. You are late to the party and the road kill is pretty rancid and a bit toxic.
    Dec 19 12:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • S&P Lowers GE Outlook - A Downgrade May Be Possible
    "The shadow of future events first falls on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange". The GE shadow came in the form of a steep decline of GE stock from 42 to 32 and wise investors read the message and headed for the exits. Since then little by little the shadow's full message is being deciphered. Nuf said.
    Dec 19 11:53 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Fed is Running Out of Options
    This is a well thought out post with interesting comments.
    Dec 19 11:42 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • BB&T Corp.: Quarterly Dividend Up; Projected Payout Ratio Down
    BBT is run like a bank should be run, lend money to people who you know and can judge their ability to repay the loan. Trading between 25 and 35 it is an excellent vehicle for the "collar" type option spread. I own BBT been following it for years.
    Dec 19 10:50 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • AAA U.S. Credit Card ABS Can Withstand Significant Stress
    These guys are using the same clouded glasses they used when rating the the CDO's. Why believe them now? The rating agencies have the same stature as Mr. Madoff. One saving grace Madoff is going to jail but the rating agencies will continue their collecting fat fees and putting out garbage.
    Dec 16 16:11 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bonds, Convertibles and the U.S. Dollar: Eye on Chesapeake Preferreds
    If the CEO could not see his company's disaster in the making, why put your money in the hands of someone so blind? This is the second time he has watched the destruction of shareholder's wealth. But it's your money, have at it.
    Dec 16 10:53 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How to Deal with GM's Bondholders?
    From the New York Times: $73 per hour UAW employee cost break down. $43 regular wages, vacation and overtime pay. $15 for employee pension, health insurance etc. $15 for company portion of retiree pensions and all health care costs. Assume taxpayer takes over retiree expenses and UAW then agrees to $10 per hour wage reduction then the cost to assemble a car using UAW labor is reduced by only $800 as wages amount to only 10% of assembly costs. Unless consumers return to a buy American attitude the US auto companies are doomed.







    10% of cost of the car. If the foregoing is true there is no hope for US car manufacturers unless the consumers switch back to American built cars.
    Dec 10 21:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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