Dan Weiss

Comment Stream

Dan Weiss picture
21
Profile Articles (64)
Comment Stream
Filter comments by:
Highest rated Latest comments
Or filter by symbol:
    • Three Short Ideas: Standard Pacific, Under Armour and Trump Entertainment
      All three names have shown material losses since the post although the decline in UA is a bit less then I would have expected. I would continue to be bearish on all three names although at $0.19 TRMP may be worth covering even with a $0 target.
      Dec 30 22:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Ultra Short Treasury ETF: Have Patience, Money Will Eventually Flow Again
      In the short-term Treasuries could actually continue to rally. Economic conditions will remain poor through at least much of next year and the Federal Reserve's new policy is quantitative easing through the purchase of these bonds which would be shorted in these instruments. Keep in mind in Japan that the 10-year rates fell below 1% so anything is possible. Long term, I agree with the author 100% that Treasuries are overvalued but they can be propped up for a long time by the Government.
      Dec 23 20:36 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Playing the Auto Bailout With Yields as High as 45%
      Bush threatened congressional republicans that he would use TARP money for the bailout if this did not pass Congress. I would expect an announcement over the weekend that a limited amount of TARP money will be used.
      Dec 11 23:46 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Playing the Auto Bailout With Yields as High as 45%
      GM has very little secured debt so its likely the bondholders would get something back regardless but its possible in a worst case scenario they get money back at slightly lower than current levels and have to wait a significant period of time to receive it while courts negotiate it.
      Dec 10 10:46 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Playing the Auto Bailout With Yields as High as 45%
      A couple of things to keep in mind. The mini-bonds are unsecured bonds that trade on exchanges therefore they are naturally less risky than the equity but at the same do still have risk. THat being said most are trading at about 16 cents on the dollar (they have a par value per share of $25). GM has said on multiple occassions that they plan to try to restructure this debt which would most likely result in a double or more from current levels if it is completed.
      Dec 10 09:37 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Betting on Ford: Ugly Stock, Intriguing Options Opportunity
      You could sell the March 3's for about 0.60 if you think they will survive until a bailout or for some the January 2010 2 1/2 or 5 could be interesting. Now ,personally I like the bonds of GM which are extremely attactive at current levels (they actually sell for less than the equity in some cases) and would likely give holders some value even if GM went bankrupt unlike the equity.

      Disclosure: I have bought both GMW and RGM (these are traded on the markets but are senior unsecured debt) with yields close to 60%. Both have a $25 par value and are selling at just below $2.50 or less than 10 cents on the dollar.
      Nov 23 16:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • KHD Humboldt Wedag: Earnings Good Now, But Future Profits May Suffer
      The enterprise value is a bit more difficult to figure out as its predominantly non-dollar so the dollar strength has caused a decline in that value. Nevertheless, I agree its an undervalued stock.
      Nov 14 21:55 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Private Education Providers: A Counter-Cyclical Investment Idea
      Looking at the overall sector, ITT would be the most attractive based simply on valuation with APOL and and Devry just behind and then strictly on a valuation basis a stock like APEI looks rather expensive (although they are growing faster than others).
      Nov 13 12:23 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Anheuser Busch Discount to InBev Deal
      The issue is still EU approval as it has not cleared as of yet although its doubtful it will be held up.
      Nov 09 20:04 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Private Education Providers: A Counter-Cyclical Investment Idea
      I agree 100% with the fact that the industry tends to be counter-cyclical and have been long Devry and Apollo Group. The valuation on Strayer is a bit high (although they clearly are a leader). I think as long as you stick with the four mentioned you will be fine and another one that would be interesting on weakness is APEI.
      Nov 05 18:32 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Had Enough Volatility Yet? Direxion Set To Launch 3X Leveraged ETFs
      These are very interesting for short-term moves but the problem is in the math for longer term. As an example lets say over a week the returns of an index are 2%, 3%, -3%, 1%, -4%: in this case the index would be down 1.2% but a triple etf would be down 4.7% (nearly 4x the amount due to the daily rule), meanwhile the triple inverse ETF would only be up by 1.3%. This may be a extreme example but it shows some of the danger of investing in the leveraged ETF's if markets are not heavily trending.
      Nov 03 19:17 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • How Election Day Could Boost Penn National Gaming
      As much as I like Penn Gaming the likely news from Maryland is a significant negative (along with Ohio). The majority of Penn's flows come from West Virginia and Pennsylvania and an approval will likely cut into the profits of the company over time.
      Nov 02 17:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Regional Casino Ameristar Is a Real Bargain
      Colorado polls show expansion of gambling limits and hours favored by 30% for next week's vote. Ameristar is a key company in the Colorado market.
      Oct 29 00:14 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • 5 Sectors That Do Well in a Shrinking Economy
      Interesting picks. I love the education sector at the moment especially considering the appearance that this will be a deeper recession than first thought. I actually like DV the best in the sector but I dont think you will do bad with ESI or STRA. I am more on the fence with APOL.
      Oct 26 04:19 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Why Oil and Gold Are Headed Much Higher
      Gold maybe-- oil not a chance. Global demand destruction is here to stay for at least 2 years as all growth in recent times has been due to emerging markets where are clearly not going to be growing at prior rates and will likely be in recession in short order.
      Oct 19 22:14 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

Dan Weiss's Comments Stream Stats

  • 67 Comments, 9 , 1
  • Total Comment Stream rating - = 8