irondoor91

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  • Laszlo Birinyi: S&P 750's the Bottom - Barron's Interview
    The S&P dividend yield @ 6% might be the sign of a tradable bottom. Altria and GE are special situations. Everybody hates them for the wrong reasons, so the high dividend rate.
    Jan 04 23:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Dangers of Timing the Market
    Most general equity mutual funds (approx 85%) cannot beat the market even when they are supposed to be more or less fully invested.

    Statistically, half of the top quartile funds in one year or five year period will fall into the bottom quartile over the next measurement period. And, of course, the inverse is true that half of the bottom quartile funds will end up in the top half over the future period. Investors tend to be in active funds rather than the index funds, since those are the ones that their advisors recommend, they are always chasing the top performers, which are naturally going to be underperformers in the future.

    Active mutual funds investors' returns are approximately half the market returns because of this chasing plus the layers of fees inbedded in the funds and the overlay of advisory fees.
    Oct 14 10:10 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Decades of Negative Returns: A Long-Term Look at the Dow
    So long as you need to find someone else to blame (repub or dem or short sellers or hedge funds, etc) you will never get it. You, you, you, are the one in control of your own decisions and destiny. You have to live it out day by day.

    Some day far down the path when you are old and broke, you will lament; "If only I'd gone short in 2008".
    Oct 12 00:05 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Calm Before the Storm?
    Dear Givemeabailout: Paulson had to sell his Goldman stock when he became Treasury Secretary. It was a great trade, since he got out at a much higher price and he did not have to pay capital gain taxes. If he then put it into Treasuries, he's further ahead.
    Sep 27 11:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Will the Stock Market Continue Its Upward Trend?
    I assume you neglected to look at a chart that was longer than the last 3 hours of yesterday's data. Try starting with, say, October 11, 2007, when discussing trends.

    Dittos to CrossProfit and jlounsbury59.
    Sep 09 11:41 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bear Market In Its Final Stages?
    The stock market is the perfect reflection of the people's mood. When that changes, it will begin to show up in the averages. Check out mutual fund cash politions, dividend yield, a/d line, etc. The banks are loaded with under-performing real estate that is about to get even worse. We are just beginning to enter the worst phases of the economic downturn. The reasons for individuals and businesses accumulation of cash is obvious: They are going to need it.
    Sep 07 16:20 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Thursday's Stock Rally Means Little to Trends
    Nice work. It is helpful from time to time to be reminded of the "big trends" in these primary market indicators. The daily noise can sometimes be deafening if you are just watching the screen and clicking the mouse. These are the charts that should be reminding "long term" investors that there are times when "buy and hold" means a real loss of money and purchasing power. There are times when "sell and just get out of the way" is the trade to make. There will always be a better time to buy in the future.
    Aug 31 10:58 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Bracing for Another Round of Credit Related Woes
    "This tells me that we've got serious problems. If a prime borrower can't get funds to secure a bargain-basement real estate deal, then you've got to believe credit is tight. And tight credit is deflationary."

    Right you are. The reason the banks aren't lending on "bargain basement real estate deals" is that they have plenty of them as collateral on their balance sheets already and the prospects of owning more are increasing daily. They need the cash to invest in low-cost Fed funds and they need to get the current crop of loans off the reservation before they deteroriate any more.

    Your real estate friend should hunker down, manage his cash flow , pay down his debt and let the momentary fit of greed pass on by. There will be even greater "bargain basement" opportunitues ahead.

    Aug 31 10:30 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Global Stock Markets: Let the Gains Begin
    You can take a trading "stance" without actually executing a trade unless there is a trade to take. Don't trade out of boredom, but be prepared with a plan.

    Sometimes you actually have to watch what the market is doing to determine what it is saying. Why try and be a hero? A "long term approach" can also mean "get out and wait for lower prices".
    Aug 11 15:07 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Are Hedge Fund Programs Driving the Market?
    If there is "mindless selling" by the funds, cannot there also be "mindless buying" by the public? Cramer is always promising to find a bull market "somewhere". Buy! Buy! Buy!. Never, ever, ever Sell.
    Aug 09 10:28 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Corporate Fraud + Government Intervention = Bailout Nation
    How many times have you heard that one of our major problems is our "low savings rate"? For years now it has been close to or less than zero.

    Out come the "stimulus checks" and lo and behold we find that about 30% of the money wasn't spent, but was actually saved in a bank account or used to reduce some credit card debt.

    The next outcry was bemoaning the fact that people were saving and actually coming to their senses!

    The whole world knows that if Americans ever returned to the '60's and saved/invested 5-10% of their incomes the global economy would be down the tubes. The world depends on Americans borrowing and spending themselves and their country into bankruptcy. And they will gladly sell us the junk and loan us the money to do it with.

    My question is, where will the world find the next goose to pluck?
    Aug 06 10:13 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • News Flash: Forecasting Ain't Perfect
    "Even the collective wisdom of the marketplace has been wrong time and again. The stock market, that weathervane for corporate profits and the economy, keeps swinging from fear to greed and back. A glance at the major stock indexes over the past year reveals a host of false bottoms and fools' rallies."

    The stock market is a "weathervane"... of the collective social mood of millions of investors, which reflect what they see and feel going on around them. If it was a "weathevane" of the economy or of corporate profits, it would merely just flatline until profit announcements come out, make the necessary few cents adjustment, and then go back to hibernation until the next quarter.

    Markets trade on the second or third derivative of what most investors think other investors are going to do about the latest "news", such as oil prices, write-downs, or especially the potential arrival of the next round of multi-billion $ Fed delivery.
    Jul 30 12:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Dead Cat Returns to Earth
    99% of investors today have never seen anything but a general up market since the 30's. For the first 30+ years of that run, America and its corporations were running hard to build industries and people who knew how to build things, like steel, automobiles, airplanes, appliances, machine tools, computers, etc, and to export them to the rest of the world. We had a strong dollar and a growing, confident knowledge base.

    Since the late 60's what have we had? Social unrest, political scandal, a lost war in Vietnam, the rise of terrorism and intolerance around the globe. We became a nation of "servicers", pushing paper and real estate in the era of digitization and ease. Where a family of 4 could live comfortably in a 2,000 sq ft home, now childless couples demand 5,000 sq ft for their primary residence, three cars, boats, a "place at the beach" on and on ad nauseum.

    It was all built not on hard work and sacrifice, but on a mountain of credit at the personal and governmental level (FAN and FRED). Literally Trillions of dollars of paper that were sliced and diced and handed out all over the world to "reduce risk". Well, that debt requires something: cash flow and debt service. The holders of that debt want to be paid both interest and principal. They do not want the underlying homes that nobody can afford to pay for, insure, furnish, pay taxes on and commute 2 hrs per day at $4.00 a gallon in their Hummers and other SUV's.

    Just when housing had a chance to become affordable again due to 50% discounts, the Treasury steps in a says "no, we got to put a stop to that". Can't have the marketplace setting prices!

    We are in the process of turning the clock back to an earlier era. Not 1929, but 1974. That is the Dow at the 4th wave of lesser degree. Unbelieveable, but it will be DOW 400 by 2016.

    If not, give me your case for the DOW returning to new highs with the credit engine out of gas.
    Jul 26 13:41 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • How Bad Is the Bear? A Technical Look at Current Dow Trading
    Oil will probably remain high priced in terms of dollars, but when the big unwind finally gets here and deflationary forces take hold, demand for all things oil-based will fall along with the price of everything else on this planet, and that includes the last and final inflatable, the commodities bubble. No more stock bubbles, no more real estate bubbles, no more derivatives bubbles. Why? No more liquidity available and thus no more leverage.
    Apr 10 01:10 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Traders Brace Themselves for Retest of January Lows
    "Depending on the economic and earnings picture at that point, it could very well give investors a chance to take some chips off the table."

    Sorry, but I don't follow you. "Investors" are supposed to take some chips off the table? I thought they were "investors" and not "traders". "Investors should have taken their chips off the table in November when the market gave it up after coming to the conclusion that the Fed's continuing band-aids will not work. Lower Fed Funds rates apparently = higher long term rates.

    Deflation is what's coming and the housing market is where it first started to manifest itself. Mortgages and all the detrius of leveraged finance was next. Now the US stock market is joining in. The BRIC's are next, followed eventually by the commodity bubble's pop, but perhaps in another 6 months or so.
    Mar 06 22:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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