oldgoldbug

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  • U.S. Stock Market Returns: What's In Store?
    Some good research that is much appreciated. One of the takeaways is that there is indeed a time to sell and that the buy and hold "forever" approach might not work for all investors.
    Dec 03 17:11 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Coming Dollar Deflation
    The market is always right. Fight it at your peril.
    The strength of gold vs these other commodities is remarkable.
    Gold's trend depends on your time horizon. I would disagree that gold is in a long term (since 2002) bear trend. But that is what makes markets and horse races.
    Dec 02 10:33 am |Rating: +4 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Augusta Resources Focuses on Advancing Copper Rich Deposit in Arizona
    Jakester is correct; neighborhood meetings are standing room only and significantly anti-mine. The area around the mind is very attractive including some scenic recreation areas (Madera Canyon). There is an old gypsum mine not too far away and major open pit operations to the west. The mine dumps to the west are real eyesores although a large community (Green Valley) has grown in their shadow so it doesn't bother some people.
    Having said all that, the company seems to be forging ahead.
    Dec 01 13:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in
    It takes guts to call a bottom, especially when things look so grim.
    The point about not reacting to bad news is well taken.
    Only time will tell.
    Nov 28 13:39 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Eddie Lampert's Troubles: It's Not Just Sears
    My experiences with Sears as a customer and an employee have not been good. From the mid 80's on it acted like a company with no ethics (although how many actually are ethical?) Now it tough times, the loyalty just isn't there anymore.

    Too bad the authors didn't publish this list 6 months ago - it is an impeccable short list.
    Nov 22 12:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Can You See Apple Under $60?
    rd4sndk - really well reasoned fundamental analysis - thank you. But the author's point is "its going down". Its hard to believe that the investors/traders in AAPL don't know these numbers so either they are "irrational"... the numbers aren't going to happen or massive external forces are pushing this stock down. In any event, the selling has to stop before the fundamentals can reassert themselves. As for the author keeping his negative opinions to himself, I for one am grateful to hear them as well as your own, as the continued pummeling of this stock has got me puzzled.
    Nov 21 10:31 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • AmEx Taps the TARP; Not the Same AmEx Buffett Bought
    I think I remember having a chat with the "Salad Oil King" in Pennsylvania around 1969 or 1970. He commented how hard a life of crime was and how he realized he had a hole in his shoe as he was scamming AXP out of millions.
    I believe he worked his scam in the early 60's and Warren picked up a bunch of AXP in 1964 or so.
    Whatever AXP is trying to do, the chart doesn't look so good.
    Nov 16 02:53 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Breaking the Back of Buffett
    Warren Buffett is without question the finest long term speculator/investor of our time. He has made massive bets on stocks in (mostly) a rising market environment. He sticks with what he knows and he resists the pull of the crowd to invest when stocks are too expensive.
    You have to give someone credit who keeps his powder dry until the odds are in his favor. The deals he cut with GS and GE are quite creative, although the need for such companies to cut deals like these appears to be giving the market real concerns. Short term they may be down, but his positioning for the long term is exemplary.
    Nov 16 02:18 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold Bugs Beware
    Ah the war of words continues - thank you all for much enlightenment.

    Given the remarkably high premiums charged for purchasing physical gold and silver due to the apparent physical shortage, it is hard not to want to bet against the masses. Kind of like the old "odd lot" rule in the stock market. But, I remember back in the Hunt Brother days there were enormous lines at the dealers to dump the family silver at $25 and up. Those folks are still smiling 25 years later, so evidently the masses are not wrong all the time. And, there is certainly plenty of incentive for buyers to purchase physical gold and silver as it has been about that long since the outlook has been so unsettled.

    Also, a contrarian might consider the profit potential of taking the other side of the Cash/Treasury/T-Bill "bubble". I guess that would be stocks, commodities and (gulp) real estate. We don't know if these prices are "low", but they are "lower" than they were not so long ago. Should the Greater Depression actually be avoided, the profit potential in these investments is high. Somewhere an investor is selling some of his/her Treasuries and rebalancing the proceeds into gold/silver/stocks. Possibly trying to sell high and buy low as there is a rumor that is a good way to make money.

    Finally, I suppose someone someday will actually figure out how to put all one's eggs in one basket correctly everytime, but until then a diversified portfolio across investment categories looks like a good way to go.
    Nov 14 01:33 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Most Misunderstood Chart of All Time
    -8%,-6%,-14%= economic activity at 74.37%. This during a time when we actually made things and didn't just consume. What kind of decline are we looking at with an economy built on home remodeling, shopping malls, cable TV, diet soda, etc? 10% of the economy is manufacturing and a lot of that is tied up with F, GM Chrysler etal?
    Thank you for the information and point of view; it helps to explain why some charts look so absolutely awful.
    Also explains why Bernanke is so resolute to do everything in his power to avoid a repeat. I think he is a smart guy, but perhaps this is going to be too much even for the FED and central banks.
    Nov 12 09:27 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • John Hussman: It's Tough to Buy Into Fear
    "Investors pay an enormous price for constant comfort". Very true.
    Nov 11 15:37 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The One-Word Topic of the Day, and Week: Obama
    There was a ray of hope when oil prices were going much higher and shipping costs were escalating - some companies decided to bring manufacturing back to the US as it was cheaper than shipping to China and back. Now oil is way down, shipping costs have crashed and so has demand - what now?

    Perhaps the whole model is broken - The Wall Street Greed Machine - demanding rising sales and earnings every quarter, growth premiums, up up up and away! Maybe the treehuggers are right and its all about sustainability, efficiency, low energy usage, recycling, getting off the grid etc. It looks like more, more, more is something we really can't afford.

    Nov 08 11:34 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Effects of the Long Dated Treasury Bubble
    Whoa JasonC "everyone holding debt is getting paid"? I thought that was the problem. LEHMQ bondholders are getting paid? By whom?
    Is it possible some of the hedge funds that are down 38% so far this year still are leveraged and may be putting their lender banks at risk should asset prices fall further and faster before the funds can get out? Will those holding debt get paid?
    I do remember long Treasuries at 16% in the 80's. We were lucky to dodge the bullet then but here we are bobbing and weaving like someone out of the Matrix again.
    Nov 07 17:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Worst Two-Day Decline Since the '87 Crash
    I keep hearing from folks like dixie that the Democratic (Socialist in their view) politicians will implement all sorts of "tax and spend" programs, but I guess I am at a loss as to why the Republicans get a free pass on doubling the national debt, fighting two wars on borrowed money, running enormous deficits, ignoring regulations of all types from the environment to the investment markets, bailing out Wall Street etc etc. I guess socialism benefiting corporations is different than socialism benefiting people. I truly wish I understood that point of view better because it just seems to be a massive denial of the facts as we see them at this moment.
    Nov 06 19:01 pm |Rating: +3 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Dow Price Targets
    GM probably has the best chart.
    Nov 05 14:49 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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