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  • Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?
    West1: I *think* the yuan is pegged off the dollar, so even though they do business in europe they still suffer the dollar/euro exchange issues.
    Jun 06 16:03 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow
    Here's where I split with Jack on the TSL/CSIQ debate: CSIQ appears to be adding production capacity at a much faster rate than TSL. I think TSL will continue to be profitable, but in general growth tends to generate much higher stock prices. As such I've added to my CSIQ position while maintaining a smaller position in TSL.
    May 16 13:33 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    "FSLR has a printing press for $100 bills with endless possibilities for growth as fossil fuel is replaced by EV and plug-in hybrids [ evworld.com ]. This event is unlike any we have seen in our lifetimes."

    Steve: whatever.
    May 02 22:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    Steve Pluvia...

    news.com/News/Item/0,4...

    No wonder you talk in circles and your arguments don't make sense. That's your goal! When something smells fishy, it usually is.
    May 01 16:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    Ok, I'm confused. I had you pegged for a FSLR ultra-bull and now you're a.... what are you? Simply pro-thin film? My argument was only don't go long FSLR. Where are you? Yes it's a good technology, but are you saying poli producers are irrelevent to thin film?

    AMAT? Different discussion.

    Yes FSLR can expand, but 700% isn't going to happen ever again. The laws of big numbers start to kick in. 714% is absurd going forward. Does anyone think they will do $4 per in Q1 2009?

    At the end of the day my argument is that FSLR's sales growth curve is flattening out, and their stock price is based on continued near vertical growth. Something has to give. If you want to argue about other things I have no comment.
    Apr 30 20:29 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    Steve, two problems:

    1. FSLR has stated they are not building 8 plants next year, and 32 the year after that. So 400% per year isn't going to happen.

    2. Once poli based production comes within 2x cost of FSLR their advantage wanes significantly as the cost of twice (potentially 3x)as many panels per install becomes a major factor.

    Seriously, your comments as well as Andrew Ling's are a reason to sell alone. The term 'bull' is not adequate to describe your collective position. The stock is already a '12 bagger', let it go. Find another stock to ride upwards.

    If you think that's crazy talk, then I suggest you diversify and go long Potash. They seem to be early in the growth curve as well.
    Apr 30 18:35 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    At a 144 PE I don't think math has much to do with it.

    But what the heck, at 714% yoy, they need to do about $803M in Q4 2008 to keep it up.

    I don't *think* anyone here is trashing the company, but the growth rate is going to taper off.
    Apr 30 15:54 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    I didn't buy GE for solar exposure, I was just stating what I did with the proceeds.
    Apr 30 11:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    Andrew, you raging ultra bull you. I hope you are no longer leveraged long...
    Apr 30 11:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • First Solar's Future: Bright or Dim?
    I sold all my shares (cost basis ~$205) this morning for $297. I then took the money and bought some TSL (I still like the sector) and GE. I'm with Jack, the earnings only sound impressive when compared to Q12007.
    Apr 30 10:46 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space
    Full disclosure: I bought FSLR at $205 because I thought they were the leader in thin film. They probably still are, but I agree that the P/E is absurd.
    Apr 26 09:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Trina Solar: Best Value in the Solar Space
    This is mostly a JackY question, but I'll look at any answer with logic behind it:

    I bought FSLR, CSIQ, and SPWR in February based at least partially on your commentary. So far that has worked out pretty well. I'm leaning towards dumping FSLR after Q1 results come out, as estimates are well below what they did in Q3 and Q4. Maybe I should sell now, but timing is what it is.

    Either way FSLR is on the way out of my portfolio. I partially agree with your P/E based analysis, but I also agree with prior posts that P/E alone is not a reason to buy a stock. So other than P/E, what does TSL bring to the table? Also, what would your top three in the sector look like right now?
    Apr 25 20:45 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • The Current State of the Solar Energy Sector
    Re: Smokey - Why don't rich people have solar array's?

    Vanity. The same thing that explains most of their purchases.
    Feb 19 18:22 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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