nickgogert

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216 Comments

    • Fri Nov 28th 11:17 AM
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      Bailout Infographic: Now vs. Then
      It should be noted the cost of the bailout won't be known until the assets are sold and the recovery rates are known. An interesting conjecture is that extreme fiscal stimulus and dollar devalution could minimize the bailout costs by helping asset recovery, assuming we knew what was bought in the first place. thoughts?
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    • Mon Nov 24th 09:26 AM
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      Each Time I See Google's Android Pitch I Like It Less and Less
      the real cost of the phone is the network access(infrastructure)... the software is marginal to that. Looks for changes in network technologies or topologies to shift what is actually a shrinking and rapidly commodified business. A good software radio, open roaming protocols eventually rolled out on a localized basis, Wimax etc. could radically shift the cost structure. bits is bits. A more interesting wireless play is Google's move O3B. A Bigger human impact than android potentially.
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    • Mon Nov 24th 09:06 AM
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      Simuflation: The Powder in the Market's Keg
      very interesting thesis, in regards to the rate of change within the system. I called it star flation, like the radiating arms of a starfish, all contracting or expanding at different rate but connected at the center. nickgogerty.typepad.co...
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    • Thu Nov 20th 15:31 PM
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      Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Falls to Decade Low
      you don't get it, plenty of value was created in the semiconductor industry over that period. It just all went to the consumers not the company. Charlie Munger mentions it in his book.
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    • Tue Nov 18th 10:26 AM
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      The Fed: Now the World's Largest Private Bank
      any bets on when the US T-bond at AAA drops to A?
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    • Tue Nov 18th 10:22 AM
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      Crude Usage: Three Cubic Miles and Growing
      here is an online presentation that may help people undertand the issue in few quick pictures. nickgogerty.typepad.co...
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    • Tue Nov 18th 10:18 AM
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      Guess Which Retail Items Are Selling Best and Worst?
      IRI and Nielsen research provide item level data from bar code tracking. It is pricey, but compelling.
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    • Fri Nov 14th 12:14 PM
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      Lower Prices Now- Massive Inflation Later?
      I think the central bank Governor of Zimbabwe has been consulting in D.C. :)
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    • Fri Nov 14th 12:02 PM
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      Farm Real Estate Sector Headed into a Decline?
      value is a function of yield. It would be interesting to see the cash rent plugged into this equation or effective returns from cash crops.
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    • Thu Nov 13th 11:05 AM
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      Can't They Even Slam the Barn Door Right?
      most modellers fidget with their epsilons not realizing the whole premise of CAPM and Markowitz and options pricing is deeply flawed. Maybe bigger, faster computers with smarter people will solve it...hardly. As a quant I hold most of the profession in low regard for being obtuse and myopic. The world would be a better place if the modellers advanced humanity in the real sciences and not economics which is a social soft science and for which many are ill suited. Applied economics in the form of finance has limited scope or need for more math.
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    • Thu Nov 13th 11:00 AM
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      Want Some TARP Money? Sign Here!
      I shall ask for my payment to be rounded to the nearest $1b and dropped off in small notes in my garage. Are there any trendy industries I should claim to be with to accelerate this. Auto's are already bail-out passe and so six minutes ago, retailers look promising, perhaps something in the entertainment industry needs bailing out. How about $1b for a blogger?

      If this arrived via e-mail I would think it was a Nigerian 411 scam.
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    • Thu Nov 13th 10:44 AM
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      Panic! Bart Calls (Another) Bottom
      Biggs may be the gentlemen investors version of Cramer. Smoother to digest in the beginning, but equally productive at the end. Nothing left but a small pile.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 13:04 PM
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      The Fed Money Machine Gears Up to Print Trillions
      may be of interest. bailoutsleuth.com/
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    • Thu Nov 6th 09:38 AM
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      Five Key Quotes from MBIA on the Monoline Industry
      The media spotlight has focused on other bright shiny objects, but the monolines are massive problems which really haven't gone away. Expect the muni portfolio to start looking rough in 9-18 months as the demand on services increases while property tax re-assessments (rolling 7 year basis) shrink the tax base.
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    • Thu Nov 6th 09:29 AM
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      Hungarian Business and Consumer Sentiment Both Fall Sharply in October
      thank you for the article, well constructed and about an issue that doesn't get much coverage on SA.
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