nickgogert

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Market Reruns, Courtesy of the U.S. Government

Agree that a structural or systemic problem can not be solved without changing the system components. The combination of ratings agencies, and universal acceptance of mean variance risk models are still inherent in the system, they actually get worse under Basel 2. Expect the same results in the future with a different "Asset" class and some new form of debt structure that "games" the system the same way SIVs and AAA super senior CDOs squared did, they were they fuel for the mortgage fire. Kindelberger has a lot to say about this in his book manias, panics and crashes. The 2008 credit crunch is new wine in an old bottle.
Dec 19 10:58 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Ultimate Economic Showdown: China vs. the U.S.

I agree with the articles premise about attribution theory and the potential for some dangerous policy both domestic and abroad from Chinese and US positions going forward. In times of crisis people tend to organize arond others and group think sets in. These are dangerous times with policy and power vacuums building in many parts of the world.
Oct 28 09:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The Great Consumer Crash of 2009

The film IOUSA comes out on Aug 21st. Should be interesting. www.agorafinancial.com...
Aug 14 10:59 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Delusions of Debt

The debt figure is important and deeply concerning, but is better measured relative to GDP as a ratio. nickgogerty.typepad.co...
Aug 04 08:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
The Dividend-Cut Flood

thanks for the tip on dividends. It is an interesting point.
Jul 10 08:23 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Do You Need to Be Abnormal to Trade Successfully?

By definition success that is beyond average is deviant behaviour. It is just common usage of the word to ascribe deviance as a negative trait. Success is positive variance and therefore by definition requires deviance. Large deviance is exactly what people seek in their investment's results, unfortunately it isn't always on the correct side of the curve
May 30 17:13 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
PPI Shows Enormous Squeeze on Profits

good point for discussion and debate. looking forward to some lurk and learn in the comments.
May 23 08:46 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Earthquake Insurance is Getting Risky

Flock of black Swans ahead.
Apr 28 09:55 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Fed Auction Futility

just curious what happens when the colatoral gets downgraded below AAA. Does the FED/BOE ask for replacement from the pledger? I am interested in understanding the mechanics.
Apr 25 09:40 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Cost of Rice Rises 50% in Two Weeks as Agflation Continues

The difference between stockpiliing and hoarding is falling. here is a WSJ excerpt "Seven people have died waiting in bread lines in Egypt; Pakistan sent troops to guard flour mills" www.livemint.com/2008/...

What is the US staple consumer item?

Apr 13 18:47 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
A Look at the $1.1 Trillion HELOC Problem

helpful chart and spreadsheet on median home price and incomes. nickgogerty.typepad.co...

Apr 02 11:47 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
When Quants Fail

I would suggest using gott's theorom to predict when the model will or condition will fail. All things change asking when is an insightful question. try it nickgogerty.typepad.co...
Apr 02 11:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
When Quants Fail

a model by definition is wrong. It is understanding how it is wrong that makes it interesting.
Apr 02 11:41 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
Market's Volatility Indicates Gains are Near

any chance of increasing the sample size of the study by reducing the consecutive % amount of the up days. I haven't seen many volatility based trading systems that are effective. Most academic studies indicate little relationship between vol and alpha capture. I am always interested in seeing a robust study.
Apr 02 11:28 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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Wall Street Breakfast - Sample Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought. Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only. Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week. Oil demand withers. The International Energy Agency warned Friday worldwide oil demand... Email continues...
The Macro View - Sample Seeking Alpha - The Macro View Market Outlook An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Oil Price Oil Below $75: Increased Chance of OPEC Production Cuts by Money Morning Oil Down 48% from Highs by Bespoke Investment Group Oil & Gas Headed Lower as Economy Strikes Consumers by Michael Filloon Economy Long Term, Financials Look Good by Michael Filloon Round 3 of the Recession: Main Street by Paul Fekula Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
Investing Ideas - Sample Seeking Alpha - Investing Ideas Cramer's Picks Farewell Financial Bear Raids - Cramer's Mad Money (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Better Picks - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Perhaps Industrials... Cramer's Stop Trading! (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Long Ideas Utilities Beginning to Generate Interest for Longs by Joe Kunkle The Long Case for Encore Capital by Value Investor Insight 2009: The Year of the Channel for SaaS Vendors? by Jeff Kaplan Two Global Infrastructure Investment Opportunities in ETFs by Investment U Market Behaves Sanely - Fast Money Recap (10/14/08) by SA Editor Joan Wickham Short Ideas Why Short Sellers Are the Heroes of Wall Street by Investment U Salesforce.com: Pricey and Coming Down Fast by Charlie Bottle Google: 3Q Results Reveal Chinks in the Armor by Mark Krieger Email continues...
Jim Cramer's Picks -
Sample

Better Choices - Cramer's Lightning Round (10/15/08)

by SA Editor Rachael Granby

Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramers Mad Money TV program,
Wednesday, October 15.

Bullish Calls:

Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.

Bearish Calls:

Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend.
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Stocks & Sectors - Sample Seeking Alpha - Stocks & Sectors Internet eBay: Q3 Looks Good but Q4 Guidance Disappoints by Greg Feirman Is Google Feeling Lucky? by Sam Gustin Why Today Could Suck for Tech by Kevin Maney Media A Triple Financial Whammy Afflicts Newspapers by Ken Doctor Three Years On, Buying MySpace Looks Like One of Murdoch's Smartest Bets by Erick Schonfeld How Will Arbitron Fare in This Market? by Sreeni Meka Telecom Ten Ways to Invest in Louisiana by Stockerblog Earnings Preview: Electro-Optical Engineering by theflyonthewall.com Shared Docks Via WiFi All the Rage by Dean Bubley Financial Switzerland Strengthens Its Banks; Short Interest Remains Low by Jessica Johnson Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole LIBOR Shows Worst Is Yet to Come for Credit Markets by Keith Fitz-Gerald Email continues...
Global Markets - Sample Seeking Alpha - Global Markets China An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy USANA Health Sciences Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Perfect World Announces Share Repurchase Program by Trader Mark China: Hot Money Inflows Down, Nervousness Up by Michael Pettis India Indian Economy Has Much to Cheer About by Equitymaster India: RBI Cuts Cash Reserve Ratio by Equitymaster India: Markets Continue Downward by Equitymaster Japan Sanyo Enters Thin-Film Market, Goes Up Against Sharp by Greentech Media Asia Four International Dividend Stocks to Watch by David Hunkar Eastern Europe Reality Bites As Stocks Continue To Collapse by The Mole Email continues...
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The Daily Dispatch - Sample Seeking Alpha - Daily Dispatch Wall Street Breakfast Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby US Market An Outcry from Emerging and Developed Markets Alike by Jonathan O'Shaughnessy Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News by SA Editor Rachael Granby Housing & Real Estate Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald Another 'Root Cause' That Isn't: Tumbling Home Prices by Tim Iacono Transcripts TrueBlue, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript Polycom, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript ETF Too Early To Buy Homebuilders ETF by Larry MacDonald
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