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Latest Comments60 Comments
Tracking Buffett: America's Most Successful Investor Reveals His Latest Moves
Global Titans Lagging the Market
How can you lie while keeping a straight face, Bill? On January 3 you posted:
"I believe that gold will zoom over $750 this quarter because I think the Fed will start to lower the Fed rate."
www.billcara.com/archi...
The Fed has not lowered the Discount Rate, and there is no indication from the markets or from the Fed itself that they are going to lower it in the near future.
Gold has zoomed since the first of the year, but certainly not "for the reasons [ypu] have been giving". I find it amazing that you can so casually lie and expect that you will not be caught in the act.
India Looking Good at Start of 2007: Considering Sify
Though he suggests buying here, Cara was quite emphatic in calling a top in the Indian market way back in August 2005:
<b>Bill Cara Calls a Top in the India Closed-End Funds (IFN, IIF)</b>
"I’m going to forecast that the closed-end Morgan Stanley India Investment Fund (NYSE: IIF) has reached a peak, and will now either decline or sidetrack for many months from this point. I think the enthusiasm has been overdone...", wrote Bill Cara on Aug 12 2005."
etf.seekingalpha.com/a...
IFN closed at 43 yesterday. So if you took Cara's advice when he advised selling at 38, you would have lost out on not only five points of upside, but also $6.12 in dividends. In other words, IFN is up 29% since Cara called a top and advised selling. Now IFN did top out over 60 in May 2006 - and did Cara have anything to say about it then?
Let's check his archives - for this is where it really gets funny. On May 10, 2006, just as IFN was reaching its multi-year top, he advised (with some hedging) that people ought to buy it.
www.billcara.com/archi...
This man's tin ear and lack of investing foresight is humorous for me, because I don't invest according to his recommendations. Instead of laughing, if you followed his advice, you could well be crying.
Closed-End Funds Premium Value Not A Precedent
Analysts Mixed On Brookfield
The Trader Wizard Returns: Take Gold, for Example
Among the Wizard's July 2006 recommendations:
* Buy USGL at 8.75. *POOF* 40% of your money has disappeared!
* Buy Canadian Income Trusts. *POOF* 20% of your money is gone!
* Dow going to close 2006 at 8800 - buy puts! *POOF* More of your money vanishes!
www.billcara.com/archi...
But such "magic" aside, this post again proves the dishonest style which seems to be a Cara hallmark. He says he correctly called gold to go over $750 an ounce in the first quarter. And if we take a leap and assume that he will be correct - a big leap, 87 dollars from the current level of $663 to be exact - he presumably would be right. But - and this is the real point - Cara carefully omits the fact that he guessed gold would go to $750 specifically because the Fed would be cutting the discount rate in the first quarter of 2007:
"I believe that gold will zoom over $750 this quarter because I think the Fed will start to lower the Fed rate." www.billcara.com/archi...
Of course, the Fed has not cut rates. Admittedly there is a Fed meeting scheduled for late March, but there's little sign that a rate cut is in the offing. Thus, gold's advance, such as it has been, cannot be ascribed to the Fed's cutting of rates, which is what Cara forecast.
Cara's post today tries to take credit for a call which he did not make. This is the essence of intellectual dishonesty.
Silver Stocks Look Shiny Indeed
Notice how he says "the best entry point [in silver] was in June-06." He also opines that silver was "overbought" in December 2006.
If we go back through the Bill Cara archives for June 2006, you will not a post in June 2006 which opines that silver was currently at a "good entry point." In fact, he barely had anything to say about silver at all. Thus, he tries to go back and claim credit for foresight for a call which he didn't make at the time.
Here are his June 2006 archives: www.billcara.com/archi.../
Fast forward to December 2006, where Cara today opines that silver was "overbought."... OK, what did he say about silver two months ago? His December archives are here:
www.billcara.com/archi.../
As I can see, the only material comment he made about silver was on December 13, when he said "gold and silver prices weaken overnight." No analysis about silver being overbought back then.
What's next? A post which claims insight because 1981 was the perfect time to buy the IPO of a little-known computer company called "Microsoft"?
Take a close look at the actual track record of Bill Cara's calls. While he occasionally gets one right, more often he makes posts like this one, where he implies a foresight to himself which does not stand up under factual scrutiny. Anybody can go back in time and say, for example, that they called the top of the bull market in March 2000 or that they called the bottom in November 2002 - but that doesn't mean they're being honest and truthful about it.
Inflation "Dead" After Three Days' Selling?
Cara has a superficially entertaining style, but if you look closely at the substance, there's no "there" there. He also has an enormous ego, and a habit of demonizing everybody who doesn't share his opinions.
Highest Ever House Vacancy Rate
Two examples I'd like him to address:
On July 17, 2006 he described GM in scatological terms, slamming the company:
www.billcara.com/archi...
GM has gone steadily higher ever since. Someone who bought GM when Cara advised selling it would be up 19%, not counting dividends.
On July 6, 2006, he advised buying USGL (now USG) at 8.65:
www.billcara.com/archi...
Which would have caused somebody following his advice to lose 43% through today.
Never to my knowledge has Cara ever acknowledged the results of his recommendations. His disasters are quietly, silently sent down the memory hole.
And if he wants to really be forthcoming, perhaps he could explain his prediction that the DJIA would close 2006 at 8800?
www.billcara.com/archi...
Cashing Out at the Top of a Market Melt-up
gold.seekingalpha.com/...
Inflation "Dead" After Three Days' Selling?
After yesterday's embarrassing circulation of a fraudulent Dow Jones article pumping Crystallex, today BillCara.com broadcasts innuendo suggesting the coming indictment of President George W. Bush:
www.billcara.com/archi...
Cara's source - "truthout.org,&qu... a blog roundly often criticzed by mainstream journalism institutions as publishing lies, damn lies, and just plain fabications. Along the lines of Cara's suggestion that Bush may be under criminal charges, in 2006 Truthout.org trumpeted a story which recounted White House advisor Karl Rove to be already under indictment. The Columbia Journalism Review, perhaps the most-respected academic publication covering journalism, published an expose of Cara's favored website under the title:
"Jason Leopold Caught Sourceless Again"
www.cjrdaily.org/polit...
The point is less a political or journalistic one than it is a financial one. Cara accounts for movements in the markets being attributable to "reportage" of "facts" from sources which have been conclusively discredited. And we're to take this seriously? Tin foil hat stuff out of Cara - yet again.
Perhaps tomorrow Bill will treat to the "news" of the discovery of Kryptonite at Area 51, and a hot stock tip as to how Crystallex is going to get the permit to mine it.
Is Cash No Longer Trash?
Inflation "Dead" After Three Days' Selling?
Today's case in point:
On June 2, 2006, Cara triumphantly predicted a .50 basis point rise in the US Fed Funds rate in August (when in reality there was no change), and that the Dow Jones Industrial Average was going to close 2006 at 8800 (it closed at 12,463, a whopping 3600 points higher than Cara's prediction).
Normally when I would read a prediction so far off from reality, I would take it with a grain of salt. However, Cara really did make these stupid predictions. You can see it here, assuming her doesn't subsequently remove it altogether:
www.billcara.com/archi...
If you combine this with yesterday's spreading of the false Crystallex report on BillCara.com (supposedly by one of his "contributors&quo... investors have every reason to discount anything published by this gentleman. If you look at the actual data, as opposed to Mr. Cara's constant spin, I think you will come to agree with my opinion that he has no track record of accuracy, accountability, or disclosure.
Crystallex Affair Requires SEC Investigation
Details were here as of 4:30pm EST, not sure if they will disappear through editing of his website, so I have taken a screenshot to preserve the possible evidence.
www.billcara.com/archi...
Circulating false and bogus stories is illegal in every jurisdiction in North America. The perpetrator(s) ought to receive scrutiny from the SEC, RCMP, FBI, or other law enforcement agency. This looks very, very bad for Mr. Cara's already-tattered credibility.
optionsXpress: Onwards and Upwards
"Turning Large Fortunes Into Small Ones," by Bill Cara.
Kindly point out where I have "libeled" you. Stating facts, such as my recounting of your disastrous investment suggestions, is not libel. Neither is recounting my opinions about your lack of investing skill. But if there are factual errors which you believe I have made, I stand ready to review them and make changes.
But I don't expect you to respond substantively - I only expect you to call me "loser," "idiot," or some other juvenile insult which you so excel in making against people who factually expose your poor track record of market analysis, such as your June 2006 prediction of immediate market meltdown on the order of minus 20%. (Of course, the S&P 500 went up 12% from there, meaning you were only off by a whopping 32%. That's the bad news. The worse news is that if people had heeded your advice in June 2006 their losses would probably have been even worse.)
Details of your terrible advice are recounted here:
financial.seekingalpha...
Care to explain yourself without your usual result to name-calling and insult?