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Latest Comments60 Comments
Crystallex Affair Requires SEC Investigation
George Bush is a regular cause of his woes. Also Goldman Sachs. And recently, the reporters at Dow Jones and Bloomberg have been accused of being crooked by Cara.
The best place for him to look for the cause of his investing woes is in the mirror. KRY is a company with no earnings, revenues which have fallen by 50% over the last couple years, very little cash left, and the only asset is the dwindling hope that the self-proclaimed socialist dictator Hugo Chavez allows them to do some mining in Venezuela. In short, it is a disaster masquerading as a publicly-traded company.
Cara should be ashamed of himself for causing innocent people to lose money by pumping up KRY. Perhaps someone will be angry enough to file a civil action against him. Given his consistent lack of disclosure and dubious reliability, such a case would be an interesting landmark.
Setting the Stage for the Next Great Bull Market
On July 6, 2006, Cara posted a lengthy discourse about how the market was in immediate danger of a complete "meltdown." Some elements of his advice - buy naked puts, buy Canadian income trusts, sell most of your stocks, and buy small gold miners such as US Gold (price then - 8.75 a share).
Here's the post to verify: www.billcara.com/archi...
On July 6, 2006, the S&P500 closed at 1270. Following Cara's advice would have gotten you:
1. Massive losses from buying puts in a market going from 1270 to 1430 (Friday's close).
2. Massive losses from buying Canadian income trusts (because in September 2006 Canada's government announced plans to revoke their tax-exempt treatment, causing share prices to crash).
3. Massive lost profits from a stock market rising from 1270 to 1430 (remember, Cara explicitly advised selling out).
4. Yes, you guessed it - massive losses from investing in US Gold. US Gold closed at 8.75 on July 6, last Friday it closed at 4.67 - a 43% loss in six months.
Following this man's advice is extraordinarily dangerous to your wealth. Of course, I expect him to blame George W. Bush for his lack of investing foresight. After all, it's all Bush's fault, isn't it?
Continue to watch this space for further exposes of Cara's terrible financial advice. I shall recount them in the coming days with relish.
Setting the Stage for the Next Great Bull Market
I wish Mr. Cara well, but believe he has a terminal case which has clouded his thinking and made his judgment unstable.
Crystallex Going Up with a Bullet
While he claims to have no "current" position in the stock, I am not sure I believe it. Indeed, in his blog he has hinted at having positions in KRY. So there is definitely a "pump and dump" danger when reading this blog.
While Cara was quick to tout this stock on January 11 when it gapped up from 3.25 to 3.54, yet is silent when it immediately tanks back down to today's level of 3.18 (11:30am EST). The trading tape shows that political risk isn't the only thing at work here: there is a great danger in the manipulations and touting of this stock and the "traders" bouncing in and out.
A trader with a public audience could tout a gap up in KRY yesterday at 3.54 and then initiate a short position when the underlying story (exprorpriation, no earnings, no mining permit, declining margins) remains the same. "Humungous Bank and Broker" is not the only entity capable of reaching into our pockets and removing money with a quick scalp, especially not with a near-penny stock the likes of KRY.
Sears Holdings: Due for Underperformance?
Revenue has gone from 17 billion in 2004 to 49 billion in 2006.
EPS in '04 was 2.50, in '05 was 11.00, in '06 was 6.17, and according to S&P in '07 is due to be about 9 dollars.
In sum, SHLD actually has earnings, revenue, and a business model.
In the past three years it has grown its share price from 30 to 166, providing a bonanza for the shareholders.
While any company isn't perfect, shareholders have been richly rewarded over the last three years by SHLD's management. And Cara wants to take it to the woodshed? Come to think of it, Cara's post isn't just odd, it is foolish.
Things could be worse, I guess, Cara could have annointed SHLD his can't-miss "Stock of the Year 2007" and odds are it would have tanked 15%.
No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
1/9/07: Cara says no reason to panic - Price 3.13
Cara's total loss in six days - 15%
No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
www.billcara.com/archi...
No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
Does the AMEX allow short sales of stocks trading under $5?
No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
Crystallex and the Venezuela Situation: Eliminate Emotion and Stick to the Facts
If a reader had followed Cara's advice and bought KRY when he first started touting it here, he would have lost 8% in four trading days.
I find it very troubling that Cara would go out of his way to make personal attacks on the reporters from Bloomberg and Dow Jones who have reported Venezuela's expropriation threats. Is it merely a situation of shoot the messenger or is he angry that by reporting the facts, the reporters are interfering with Cara's pump-and-dump long position in KRY?
Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
www.billcara.com/archi...
One word of caution, however, I have noticed that he goes back and alters posts to suit his preferences. I would not be surprised to see that archive page changed to remove the headline quote of "Wake up. The bear has won."
Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
His poor track record is further demonstrated by his bear market call on June 17, 2006. Sell everything! Head for the hills! Or as he said: "Wake up. The bear has won." What a dreadful call - he almost exactly picked the 2006 bottom to proclaim the beginning of a new bear market. The SPY closed at 124 on June 16, and its lowest close the rest of the year was 123.
Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
A mere seven months ago he described KRY as "a dog", and that at least 30 gold and silver stocks were superior. And now stock of the year? I'd bet that the difference is that he was short KRY back then, and is long KRY now. Conveniently he doesn't say, but the turnabout is striking.
Go back and read what he published exactly one year ago, 1/7/06, where he claimed a recession was coming in 2006, that equities would tank, and that the only way to make money would be to day trade in and out of stocks. Your reward for following that advice would have been missing the 16% runup in the S&P500 and getting stuck with a bunch of trading commissions.