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    • Tue Aug 5th 10:02 AM
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      Commented on:
      Trading Closed-End Funds - An Update
      Discount / fees of 8 or more is a good value. Also some of the foreign CEFs have a bonus as the underlying securities are difficult or expensive to trade directly.
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    • Sat Jul 26th 07:17 AM
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      GT Solar Picks the Wrong Day To Go Public
      This IPO is remarkably broken, with sort of disorderly selling on Friday, its second day of trading. It fell to 9.3 or 44% below the IPO price before rebounding. The trigger was a major client LDK ordering from a competitor, compounding worsening sentiment in the solar sector and the recent poor general market. That's pretty panicky for this news, whoever was selling. The financial entities getting all the IPO might make for aggressive selling?
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    • Wed Jul 16th 09:33 AM
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      Is the SEC 'Rumorgate' Push a Waste of Time?
      Good points. Knowingly spreading false information for profit is wrong and should be penalized and the SEC bureaucracy should do that as possible, e.g. in the small fraction of cases with high dollar amounts and co-conspirators tattling. In other cases it could have a chilling effect on free speech and impede information flow. Rumors have power only insofar as they may be true. People are always going to have to weed out the BS.
      I agree about the uptick rule, not sure why it was discontinued given avalanche shorting tactics. Selling short does not have the consent of the shareholder whose shares are borrowed so should be considered and regulated separately.
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    • Fri Apr 11th 17:25 PM
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      Is OPEC Killing Itself?
      The Ferrari calculation is too high by at least two orders of magnitude.
      WWI brought the League of Nations not the UN
      Do you think OPEC can open a valve and release a flood of oil. The easy oil is running out. Actually its still cheap which is why there are no electric cars already. You can drive a monster vehicle weighing over 2000 pounds across town for a dollar, crazy cheap. Its only a crisis now for the poor countries. OPEC is developing prospects but there is no vast untapped fields like Ghawar.
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    • Thu Mar 27th 16:59 PM
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      Safety Data on Arena's Weight Loss Drug Could Pave Way for Good Partnership
      Lorcaserin is looking strong here. Other obesity drug candidates are having a hard time e.g. Merck's. Evolving standards for psychological side effects are raising the bar. Existing drug options are lacking. Increasing prevalence of obesity has been a stable long term trend.
      ARNA is also trading rather cheaply here, has a sizable cash reserve, and has other drugs in the pipeline. I'll stick with it.
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    • Sun Mar 23rd 14:49 PM
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      Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving
      leh - great post, the bottom calling seems way premature. The financial stability risks are through the roof. Despite lower P/Es the risk/reward of stocks is still too high now. Bear Stearns forward P/E fell to 0.5. Sorry for the haircut Mr. Miller. An unknown but large part of earnings has been paper shuffling on a growing debt bubble, something near 40% of S&P 500 earnings from financial companies or financial subsidiarys. Millions of homedebtors are underwater on their mortgage and ready to walk. With massive leverage who knows where the next default will happen.
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    • Thu Feb 14th 14:28 PM
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      Commented on:
      The Black Swan: A Fascinating, Albeit Infuriating, Read
      Guess you insulted the fanboi/poseur crowd lol
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    • Sat Feb 9th 17:08 PM
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      Commented on:
      Is Synthesis Energy the Next 20x Bagger?
      Some more technical details on the process would have been nice.
      View article »
    • Sat Feb 9th 17:04 PM
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      Commented on:
      Umpqua Holdings: Can the Free Cookies Last?
      The Northwest is likely just lagging a bit in its housing price declines and debt problems. The prices there are way too high.
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    • Fri Feb 8th 15:57 PM
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      Real Estate, Speculation & "Occupancy Fraud"
      Guess theres more excess housing now than there was excess fiber optic cables after the telecom boom. Maybe more people will have kids. Apart from Hispanics the population would be falling hard as well, we'd be looking at Japan bust II.
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    • Thu Feb 7th 19:15 PM
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      Commented on:
      Chart Fun With the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
      Outstanding article. If 65% of people are owning rather than renting, why not use some perhaps interest/tax adjusted Case-Shiller rather than owners-equivalent rent. The recent Fed cuts make more sense on that basis.
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    • Mon Jan 21st 21:09 PM
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      Commented on:
      6 Reasons the Market Should Bounce Here
      1. S&P 1325 support: possible
      2. Stochastics oversold: maybe, market down abt 18%
      3. Fed 0.5% cut not priced in: doubtful. Fed futures even some 0.75%. Not sure ARMs are tied to this if they would reset. This is a big cut though ~10% Fed model valuation jump of market.
      4. $150B stimulus: Last rebate $300 gave about 0.7% GDP boost to 2H 2001. Market kept sliding. Now it maybe $800, but still too uncertain right now.
      5. VIX overshoot: nope. now 27, hit ~30 August and November
      6. Less bad news: Dunno, still catching up on old bad news.

      The market has been too high for awhile.
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    • Sat Jan 19th 16:44 PM
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      Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs Finally Oversold
      Nice chart, looks like the market needs a month or so in the green or red zone before it moves back.
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    • Mon Jan 14th 13:19 PM
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      Commented on:
      Bullish on Solar Energy, Bearish on Solar Stocks
      needs improvement with typos, out-of-date financials, mixing together unrelated concepts (polysi, CIGS, and multijunction 2-5 times efficiency of CdTe and mono/multicrystalline Si ?)
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    • Tue Jan 8th 01:42 AM
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      Why Is This Market Holding Up?
      The bursting of the housing bubble is driving the credit crunch. The thinking was that it was 'contained' to housing or even just to subprime and would not necessarily hurt stocks. The crunch effect mechanisms affecting overall corporate earnings are still not completely clear. The bond market has been spooked more so far, maybe they're just a little quicker on the uptake when it comes to overleveraged financial shenanigans.
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