Malkiel

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    • Thu Jan 18th 16:33 PM
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      What Does the Increase in Margin Trading on the NYSE Mean?
      very high margin trading is an old indicator of speculative excess that is analyzed in each generation when it happens to see whether it still holds. Consult Norman Fosbach's classic "Stock Market Logic" (kept current from 1976-1994, still in print) for one analysis of the indicator. Barry's introduction of the topic is timely and relevant, not to mention mildly presented, and hardly indicative of grasping at straws. It's interesting and sometimes appalling how many professional and amateur traders alike are totally unschooled in the literature of the markets they throw money at...
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    • Thu Jan 18th 16:19 PM
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      The Decline of the PC: Computers No Longer a Growth Industry
      As an experienced computer user who shopped for and bought a laptop in the 06 holiday season one thing I noticed was how few computers out there in all price ranges were adequately configured to upgrade to Vista. I think in the 07 Fall school-and-holiday cycle a wave of computer buying will happen as Vista becomes understood and users see the need to upgrade their hardware. Whichever companies catch that wave with the right hardware on offer should do well, at least in terms of sales.

      I also sense a new opportunity for any software company offering up a sleek, packaged Linux OS that can keep older pc's in the game, as many of the computers which must be replaced in the Vista upgrade cycle are still nicely configured for standard uses if they aren't burdened with a bloated OS. (oops! can't find an objective term to describe that aspect of Windows; every version since '95 qualifies for the "b" word...). I would love to see Apple break out of their boutique mentality and configure their OS for pc's to challenge MS in the software upgrade marketplace...
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    • Thu Jan 18th 12:07 PM
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      How Does The US Afford The War In Iraq? It Doesn't
      "If a publicly-listed company tried to implement and manage costly projects on a pay-as-you-go basis or otherwise relied on a batch of unrealistic assessments in planning for the future, it would likely trigger an unwelcome response from shareholders, lenders, tax collectors, and others. So far, at least, Washington has had little to fear in that regard."

      The Nov. 6 06 election was the perfect analogy to a successful shareholder proxy rebellion, don't you think? Washington insiders, including apparently the Christian Science Monitor and Nancy Pelosi, still haven't gotten it, but Washington has much to fear if it thinks business as usual will continue...
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    • Thu Jan 18th 11:50 AM
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      Sprint Nextel: The Bad News Is More Than Baked In
      Cramer and the boys over at TheStreet.com have done a number of pieces in the last couple of weeks showing why this poorly run company deserves its low share price. Sometimes those historical troughs are earned and there's no reason why they can't set new record lows, or fail to bounce back until they improve.
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    • Wed Jan 17th 18:15 PM
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      What's Driving Oil Prices Down?
      Mea culpa! That USO chart was the 06, because USO is still a baby, born in Spring of 06. And of course it shows the inexplicable phenomenon of the integrated producer stock prices holding fast later in the year as the commodity tumbles...
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    • Wed Jan 17th 18:11 PM
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      What's Driving Oil Prices Down?
      I noticed a similar chart comparing USO to the stock prices of the integrated producers for the 2005 spikes showed that USO bounced up to meet them whenever there was a top. So maybe USO and perhaps other oil ETF's are best used as tools for widening the price spread in your favor if you're buying at (hopefully) a bottom and holding for the next top...
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    • Wed Jan 17th 17:04 PM
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      Oil: On Its Last Legs
      To be the only oil stock in a major index (XOM in DJIA) is like hitting a money gusher--the dollars pouring into the market from the mutual funds, hedge funds, 401k's, etc., have to go somewhere, and the logic of volume and indexing is to push all that cash through the 30 little holes making up your money patch. Under that kind of buying pressure, and throwing in the contrarian approach to boot, we might expect XOM at 100 should oil fall to 30...
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    • Tue Jan 16th 18:56 PM
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      John Hussman: Overbought, Overbullish Climate Leaves No Room to Get Out
      Throughout the present long 5-month upward march S & P PE values have not strayed from the historical mean, and company fundamentals continue to look reasonable. Under these circumstances, demanding that there be a "correction" because some chartist voodoo declares us "overbought" is giving weight to the wrong set of values. How can a market that hasn't strayed from the mean be "overbought"... And how can "overbought" be defined without reference to how much cash is out there waiting to come in?
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    • Tue Jan 16th 18:46 PM
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      XMSR and Sirius: The Street Weighs In
      I'm not optimistic about a merger going through, given the total lack of competition in that market outside of the two primaries. The process, though, would create blips and excitements for the stock.

      I'm having trouble imagining where all the expenses are coming from for these guys, other than overpaying for content or trying to provide too much content. Once you have a captive audience of millions of automobiles for this technology ideally suited for them, paring down your offerings to the solid basics should launch both into profitability. Gosh, then both companies would be in the black even with competition...
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    • Tue Jan 16th 18:38 PM
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      Throwing More Money At Fickle U.S. Consumers Won't Fix Ford's (or GM's) Problems
      Jerry, I agree with you here about the longer-lived platform concept. The most successful models from Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, etc. have all been around for a decade now with regular reskinning along the way. GM did this throughout the '70's and '80's but bolted inbred lowbrow styling with poor quality control on top of those platforms. In the '90's the American companies took away the wrong lessons from their competitors, trying to speed up the platform cycle rather than fix the things consumers complained about, style/price/quality. I hope Mulally brings in the exciting things from the Air industry he's talked about, like carbon fiber panels, without getting snookered by his new staff into the same mistaken beliefs about what will fix their problems.
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    • Thu Jan 11th 17:15 PM
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      Crystallex Price Continues To Be Manipulated By the News
      It ranges from amusing to pathetic to read a headline accusing the "news" of "manipulating&quo... the stock. Your own example A. of Chavez' comments about mines absolutely refutes any notion that the risk of owning this stock is worth any foreseeable reward. But you go ahead and try to prove us wrong on your dime...
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    • Thu Jan 11th 16:57 PM
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      NYSE Bullish Percent Index Saying The Party's Over
      The problem with these kind of pure chart-reading exercises is that they make no reference to real-world demographic drivers, such as, how much cash is out there in the hands of Funds needing to find a home? Pension funds, mutual funds, hedge funds, IRA's, 401k's, you name it, all payroll deduction format money must go somewhere. If the cash inflows are large, it doesn't matter what any subjective "overbought" or "oversold" indicators say. Cash investments like bank accounts and cd's are manifestly inferior in the current interest rate environment, so all new money will go in the market regardless of risk. The relevant question is, "how much money is in the pipeline"? Chartist overbought/oversold indicators are a quaintness with predictive power only for the superstitious...
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    • Wed Jan 10th 16:28 PM
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      The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories
      Doubt all you want, Bill, but Ford and GM have nothing left to lose and everything to gain now by offering up the multifuel option as a hot breakthrough innovation to put them back in the game. (all cars in Brazil are multifuel, so the technology is already mature and in the market). Europe is also seriously committed to conservation and alternative fuels and will not stop implementing alternative energy technologies during any price lull.

      I grant you that a certain level of pain is required to keep the ball rolling, but from what I hear at ground level the current gas prices carrying through from last year and electric price spikes taking hold this month in the northeastern US are just painful enough that consumers aren't losing their price sensitivity yet.
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    • Wed Jan 10th 10:48 AM
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      The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories
      It should be understood that the longer any "temporary" supply or production gluts last, the greater the chance that conservation measures and new technologies will quietly melt away old levels of demand. If we have 3-5 years of sideways oil price movement we may come out in the other end to an America with universal availability of multifuel automobiles, attractive tax breaks for home energy retrofits, and a compact fluorescent bulb in every socket. These are the types of quiet trends that could keep oil prices stagnant for decades, with or without a Chinese market...
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    • Wed Jan 10th 10:33 AM
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      Are Wage Increases a Threat to Inflation?
      The failure of inflation to ignite in the face of oil price spikes last year show that the corporations have plenty of profit margin to work with. The combined wage increases for the mere 450,000 workers affected by the minimum wage represent about 2 billion dollars over a year-and-half, a drop in the bucket of this multi-trillion dollar economy. (Most of that will go back into the coffers of WalMart, so their minimum wage increases will be a wash). Rudimentary economic justice demands that the workers receive a fair share, or at least a fairer share, of the same income stream that the executive suite fatcats tap into. In fact, as a shareholder of various corporations, I would want those minimum wage increases to come at the expense of CEO compensation. CEO's should be volunteering to pick up the minimum wage tab if they have any shame whatever...
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