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    • Wed Dec 3rd 02:35 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Pundits I Admire Are Turning Bullish
      "I have no idea where the market will be three or six months from now. But 10 years from now, do you really think the Dow will be trading at 8,000? I sure don't."

      I live in Japan. No one here thinks 10 years is a sure bet for a stock market recovery!

      Cheers,
      john
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 23:46 PM
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      Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      The Run to Safety: Ten-Year Treasury Hits All-Time Low
      "The only way that Treasury yields can go any lower than they are now is if investors become even more terrified than they already are and that just doesn't seem possible.

      Does it?"

      My understanding is that quantitative easing implies buying long term debt to drive down that part of the yield curve. I am not sure i go along with your purely contrarian call. Look at how low japanese 10-year notes went! I would wait until a chart shows a downtrend.

      Cheers,
      john
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 20:36 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Triple Leveraged ETFs On Fire
      Why not go long the 3x and short the -3x for some real leverage!
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 26th 09:28 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Small-Cap Japan ETFs: Big Things May Come in Small Packages
      Greetings,

      Unfortunately, japanese equity markets and the $/Yen are rather strongly positively correlated, so investors in these u.s. funds are going to suffer from currency situations when things turn around in Japan.

      By the way, J-reits are a great deal as well.

      Cheers from Osaka,
      john
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 06:58 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Currency ETFs: Consider the Commissions
      Greeting Ray,

      Fair enough my friend.... different strokes and all. Funds like DBV and JEM may be useful, if expensive.

      If there is a bundle to be made, carry trading is likely the best way to do it IMHO.

      Best wishes and thanks for your opinion.

      john
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 27th 23:17 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Currency ETFs: Consider the Commissions
      Greetings,

      I agree with the original poster on these costs being absurd. Any medium to long term forex strategy is going to be better accomplished with a forex broker. ETF's are a primitive way to get such exposure.

      I am not sure where Ray is getting his quotes from. I show a spread of around .007% for EUR/USD and .039% for USD/MXN. That is more like 5.6x than 100x, my friend.

      For a one year holding period costs are 57x cheaper using the broker OANDA for EUR/USD than the ETF FXE. That is not counting the bid/ask spread on the ETF or commissions, which could jack this up considerably. You have no further costs after that (outside of interest on a negative carry) no matter if you hold for years. So there is virtually no comparison cost wise.

      See spreads and carry interest for Oanda here:
      www.xrof.com/index.htm...

      These ETFs are a scam. This is the cheapest market to trade in the world! Hell, SPY has what like .17% expense ratio?

      Also you didn't mention the tax advantages. If you document yourself as a professional trader, you get 60/40 (LT/ST capital gains) like for futures trading.

      Here is another article similar to yours:

      www.thefinancialwhiz.c.../

      I like Ray, he seems cool and quite thoughtful, but ETFs are blunt, expensive ways to trade currencies not matter how long your holding period.

      Best wishes,

      john
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 25th 11:20 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      ETF Update: Pharma ETFs, Commodity ETFs, Carry Trade
      Greetings,

      You have repeated Hougan's error. DBV is leveraged 2:1. The prospectus probably should be read by "professionals.&q...

      Cheers from Osaka,
      John
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 19th 19:18 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      DBV: Unlevered Carry Trade ETF for the Masses
      My friend, you might read the prospectus. It is levered 2:1, but I agree its a nice fund.

      Cheers,
      john

      View article »
    • Tue Aug 19th 10:05 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Currencies: Dead Cats and Yapping Dogs
      Greeting Ray,

      Thanks for the ongoing articles about FX carry. It is amazing to see how little info there is out there for such an awesome strategy. You are about the only mainstream writer that details it.

      Also, thanks for alerting us to JEM, not sure how i missed that.

      I think that you will find JEM and DBV have strong correlation in a rising to high volatility market, so i am afraid that i don't share your diversity views with respect to regions and countries. Just compare USD/TRY and NZD/JPY over the last couple years to see what i mean. Many people look at fx carry as a trade with a risk premium because the reversals are so violent. I see FX carry collectively as being either ON or OFF.

      I also do not believe the principle moneymaking of FX carry lies in collecting interest, but then i only employ pairs with a spread >3%.

      Nonetheless, i share your enthusiasm. And look forward to more thoughts.

      Cheers from Osaka,
      john
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 10th 03:12 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Foreign Currency Trading: Can Investors Profit From Trends?
      Mr. Swedroe,

      Thanks for your response. If markets have a risk premium then they have an inherent uptrend. And that is what buy-and-holders are exploiting. Interestingly, risk premium is generally the explanation for why carry trading is persistent.

      Cheers from osaka,
      john
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 10th 03:07 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bond Ladders vs. Layering with Bond Funds
      Greetings Mr. Shaw,

      You are as gentlemanly, as you are informative. Boy, ETFs come out so fast it is hard to stay abreast. I hope it sees some volume too.

      Do you have any recommendations about good bond brokers outside of Treasury Direct, say for Zero coupon bonds and corporates? There is an article on here by Larry Swedroe about the hidden mark-up on bonds in the secondary market that was a real eye-opener:
      seekingalpha.com/artic...

      Thanks. Cheers from Osaka,
      john
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 8th 22:29 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bond Ladders vs. Layering with Bond Funds
      Nice article, as always. I think there is a Ryan index laddered 1-30 treasury ETF, ticker PLW. This may simplify things considerably.

      cheers,
      john
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 8th 00:29 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Simple Momentum System for Beating the Market
      Puddi said: "Most such systems will make some money some of the time. If any system exists that makes good money all of the time, its inventor isn’t going to be writing a book about it."

      No trading system purports to make money all of the time. In fact, you can have less than 50% winning trades and can still make money. I suggest you read up on some basic trading theory.

      Rudi said: "You didn't reveal any scientific proof because you can't."

      Ah, dude first chill and then look at his peer-reviewed published academic paper! This is one of the most documented, pervasive effects in finance and you guys act like Mr. Faber is some kinda snake-oil salesman!!

      Mebane, maybe these comments are an indicator as to why the momentum effect keeps on working....

      Cheers from Osaka,
      john
      View article »
    • Mon Jul 28th 06:33 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Yen Cross Basics
      An easier rule might be: any carry trade with more than a 3% interest rate differential is going to have fat tails; if you can't handle this, stay out. There is an escalator up and an elevator down. Entering after, say a six month volatility spike, will increase your safety getting into the carry.

      Cheers from Osaka,
      john
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 21:04 PM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Congress Blames Index Speculators
      Great analysis, Mr Zigler. That is one of the simplest and most compelling on the subject (out a huge pool of articles).

      Cheers,
      john
      View article »