James Cullen
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Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know Newsby SA Editor Rachael Granby- Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought.
- Government considers next steps. As the financial crisis continues to worsen, the U.S. government is considering two dramatic steps to turn around, or at least slow, the damage: guaranteeing billions of dollars in bank debt and temporarily insuring all U.S. bank deposits. The moves, which would mark the government's most extensive intervention to date, are in discussion stages only.
- Credit stays frozen. As frozen credit markets refuse to thaw, the cost of default protection on corporate bonds reaches new global records amid investor concerns the credit crisis will trigger corporate failures as companies struggle to finance their businesses. Interbank lending remains limited, and borrowing from the Fed's expanded discount window continued its trend of setting new highs every week, as the total daily average rose to $420.2B vs. $367.8B last week.
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Wednesday, October 15.Bullish Calls:Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
3M (MMM) -- The moment this stock starts yielding 5%, I'm a buyer. Until then, keep your powder dry.Bearish Calls:Computer Sciences (CSC) -- This is a company that was going to be bought, but they passed up the chance. Now I don't want to buy it."Email continues...
Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
Northrop Grumman (NOC) -- You can't own the defense stocks right now. If I had to own one, I'd look at Lockheed Martin (LMT) with its good dividend. - Stocks & Sectors -SampleSeeking Alpha - Stocks & SectorsInternet
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Latest Comments140 Comments
Reconsidering Penny Stocks
The penny stock rule is definitely a solid idea, it just requires interpretation to differentiate the legitimate companies from the things being pushed by the ad you cite in the opening.
Automakers: Bailout Arguments, Pro and Con
On Nov 20 12:19 AM AmericanVOR wrote:
> MYTH:
>
> "GM cannot build cars that people want at a price people can afford.
> That is the bottom line."
>
> FACTS:
>
> GM outsold Toyota by about 1.2 million vehicles in the United States
> last year and holds a U.S. lead over Toyota of about 560,000 so far
> this year. Globally, GM in 2007 remained the world's largest automaker,
> selling 9,369,524 vehicles worldwide -- about 3,000 more than Toyota.
>
>
> Although total U.S. vehicle sales are down almost 15% so far this
> year (through October), a number of GM cars and crossovers have enjoyed
> significant sales increases:
>
> Chevy Malibu +39%
> Pontiac Vibe +36%
> Pontiac G6 + 4%
> Cadillac CTS +15%
> Saturn Aura +7%
> GMC Acadia +2%
> Buick Enclave +88%
>
>
Four Commonsense Clues to a Genuine Market Bottom
Are you measuring this by net book value, or net tangible assets?
And, regardless, part of the bottoming process is that there will be companies you could make a lot of money taking private, but that won't happen because of the lack of credit. Eventually the values will build up, the system will delever, and then value vultures will step in and create a bottom.
At least, that's how I see it...
Memo to Warren: AmEx Preferred at 15%, Warrants at $12
On Nov 16 08:02 AM apppro wrote:
> Here's my memo to Warren:
>
> Hey Mr. Bigshot,
> If you had just not been such a wise guy 1 year ago and had just
> invested in Ambac and MBIA without some absurd limits, maybe just
> maybe, this entire financial mess could have been prevented.
> Think about it!
Primus Guaranty and the Viability of the CDPC Model
I'd say the model sounded like a good idea in quieter times, but now with the overall skittishness (particularly regarding posting collateral) they're not really desirable counterparties.
The Long Case for Autos
>>>The market cap of Toyota (TM), that only sells a few more cars, is $106 Billion. Is Toyota really worth 39 times the value of GM?
Warren Buffet, The Ultimate Dividend Investor
Buffett has shown an ability to reinvest capital at a higher rate than people receiving the dividends could, so that isn't really self-serving, it's value maximizing (especially when you consider dividend taxation). Plus, if Berkshire authorized a huge dividend, a huge portion would go to their largest shareholder - Buffett - and you'd probably complain about that.
Compare Berkshire's behavior with that of the many companies which continue to pay dividends, and then need to raise capital at usurous interest rates later. Who has better corporate governance and financial policies?
Is the Media Partially Responsible For the Panic?
5 Reasons to Ignore Buffett
I'll venture that you're wrong about the problem being "Buffett isn't us" - it's the other way around. If people were like Buffett and had his patience and perspective, took smart risks, etc., their portfolios would be much better off.
Cramer's Now a Market Timer?
Wells Fargo and the Wachovia Bid: Crafty or Crazy?
Seems lately when I show any optimism and do that, it doesn't work out too well...
Five Reasons RIMM Will Continue to Fall
Fortis Fails: Who's Next?
All I'm trying to show is that leverage is high in European banks - this isn't intrinsically bad, but is worth noting... Now, the assets being leveraged absolutely matter, but the idea that a bank won't have problems because it has been around forever is not logical - see also: Barings, mid-1700s to 1995.
Thain's Elegant Exit
Primus CEO: Fannie/Freddie Impact Minimal, CDS Will Endure