finmah@yahoo

Total Rating:
+14 / -5

42 Comments

    • Mon Nov 17th 09:38 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Worried About China
      If one were to follow your logic - the collapse of China and global depression. The conclusion is quite meager - buy stocks around China's economy. But didn't you just say that the collapse would finish off nations already weakened by recession. I would say you should recommend shorting if a global depression is coming.

      China is very large and more basic ala America in the 40's. This will be the test if they are another export based economy like Japan or something else. I am betting on the latter if one goes by history. They aim to be the crossroads of markets. Watch their chip and biotech industries they are getting tired of basic industrials. It will not take much if a few tech companies explode out worldwide with innovations. (We will still be debating vouchers for school systems). That will change peoples mind from hanging around the docks to gauge sentiment.
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    • Fri Nov 14th 06:34 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Seven Companies Profiting From Obama's 'New' New Deal
      Amen - How can a public works project beat the tech captains of the last twenty years. Privates sector money is on the sidelines and unlike the 30's the fat cats have a very vibrant choice of competing national economies all competing for investment. Public works projects that today are vastly overpriced and faulty (Big Dig- Boston) will do nothing to entice the private capital - in fact it can scare it if there is a newly installed negative sentiment towards investors.

      How about showing confidence in the private sector and making the corporate tax structure competitive. One should ask the question why does the government need unlimited growth in spending during a severe recession or credit freezeup?
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    • Wed Nov 12th 09:21 AM | Rating: +1 -1
      Commented on:
      Paul Krugman + Al Gore = The Way Forward
      The beauty of capitalism is it minimizes government and political picks and shovels. Follow the money and the solution will be found. With 7 trillion on the side - how is building a bridge or highway going to entice the money in to the economy except to start a canteen business for the workers. Didn't we just get through bashing Alaska for the bridge to nowhere. Now the bridge miraculously goes somewhere. Look at the big dig in Boston - did adding an extra highway lane and putting a highway under the city - entice investment or did it just reroute truckers throught the city increasing a carbon print. The original 2 billion bid turned to 18 billion and now ceiling tiles are falling down.

      Construction unions are the beneficiaries along with the typical political hacks who havent' been voted out of office for 20 years.

      What do you do when expanded commercial construction cannibalizes the rents and destroys the banks and reits AGAIN!

      Gore preaches global warming but how many miles of interstate infrastructure did he push through and help create this asphalt jungle dependant upon autos?

      Public infrastructure projects does not restore confidence to any sector. A liberal politician from England just the unthinkable to attract capital back in the system - reduce taxes and govern spending. When was the last time govern spending was cut?
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    • Tue Nov 11th 15:00 PM | Rating: +1 -1
      Commented on:
      How to Save the U.S. Economy
      Mark - you are right on about China and cars - possible about the metals but they need to get convertors and do the Chinese and Indian modesl such as the new Nano have them? China is the US in the 40's unbridled power and optimism.


      If you are behind the metals I would be a little more concerned with the new admin. The candidate had one of the largest contributions ever from labor unions. This will most likely result in a bailout but he also has the backing of the global warming. Will electric or hybrid cars result in fewer sales of cars? As far as emerging market strength goes right now it looks like they are being sold off as well even with the rosy forecasts.Does this indicate changes in protectionism which could lead to Depression? Much of the labor party that swept Congress was a champion of slashing imports. Also I remember so odd legislation directed at domestic mining under Clinton (arsenic) - will this be an issue.
      I too am hoping for greater sophistication but after seeing the socialization of the REIT mortg mkt through Fannie Mae swept under the rug I am concerned that the greatest laid plans have yet to unfold.
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    • Sun Nov 9th 09:02 AM | Rating: +9 -3
      Commented on:
      The Reagan Counterrevolution
      User294358 response is why we are going backwards not forwards. France has elected a conservative to try to unwind the public unions - he can't because of the political force. Sweden unwound their nanny state with dramatic results - not going back anytime soon. Canada going back to conservative leadership.

      Why? Because socialism doesn't work. Having large public and private sector unions force contributions to one political party who then creates industry conditions to scare off competition including foreign. This will of course have disastrouos - look at Europe that all score significantly higher in education level. They have large unemployment and dismal GDP. They keep interest rates high because inflation will trigger more automatic union raises.

      Show me how you are going to produce a TV in this country with higher minimum, higher health costs from nationalizing, more litigation, higher environment regulation and costs, and much easier union organizers.

      Now we get to the envy part over disparities in wealth - this too has been played out in Europe and it works for politicians and impoverishes the citizen. Why would the portfolio (we have 7 trillion on the side) invest with these hurdles when other areas are significantly better. You can get mad all you want but it is futile - the investor- like everyone else doesn't go to work for free- nor should he be forced to keep his currency here.

      What socialist state citizens will not tell you - many barter or work under the table, this constituency votes in higher taxes, the rich citizens leave and come back from tax free havens and have ribbon cutting ceromonies with the same politician who is giving them tax breaks to open a new factory celebrating foreign investment (with all sorts of perks).

      Think about it - part of this current decline is a flight of capital. It it is very difficult to reverse investor confidence. Equal portfolios is failed religion - everyone talks it but why don't you read about how some of the most liberal polticians in the US amassed their fortunes and their current effective tax rate.

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    • Fri Nov 7th 08:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Trading Obama: Solar Stocks, GM Debt, Ambac Calls, Lorillard and Goldman Puts
      Some nice ideas - but

      still have a problem with the solar crowd - why is every solar long all over the map with a basket of stocks to recommend? It appears that this will be dilutive to the price swing and why not just TAN Etf.

      I am tired of chasing govern intervention plays in insurance banking clean coal carbon tax guns pharma solar geo housing tobacco. I feel Americans really got duped with this election. If you want to chase policy stocks history will show (just like Fannie Mae and 4 triliion homeowner votes) they will capture votes FIRST particularly union, second is destroying or minimizing the private sector and third is effectiveness for reelection purposes.

      A case in point are the altern energy they are down with a very favorable political win -

      I do find your ideas very refreshing and to the point - I wonder how you feel about gun manufac - swhc

      Also where is the REIT business going to go - is it going to be sued into oblivion for trial lawyer votes - is it a short

      You definitely are right about GM - destroy private investors save the bonds and buy the votes

      What about oil drillers will they have to politically contribute to continue or will they be sued and move to Dubai
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    • Thu Nov 6th 13:44 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Negative Sentiment on Crude Oil Overdone - First Energy Analyst
      My goodness are still blaming hurricanes on Bush and now oil. Actually we don't have to listen to the dribble because if you research who funded Obama through his first senate campaign and possibly schools - Forget Bush and think about Obama and what influences him.

      And how the price of oil might be related to our drilling and exploration policy. If we elect to go with the carbon tax we could have the worst of both worlds - recession induced lower consumption and high prices which I believe helps the producers not the consumer! Now there is a conspiracy. I think consumption angle will reduce exploration in the future for oil (which of course would force the industry to contribute to a different political party and then they would be given some bones but that is years down the road).

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    • Mon Nov 3rd 14:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Post-Election Sector ETF Scenarios
      Paultaut - you are right - look at the state of Calif. - state colleges for a small fee - then pass massive deficits to Wash for other states to pick up. The dreaded private sector doesn't compart to the literati of Fannie Mae (public govern fake businesses) executives with ten of milions. The public sector is you punch out at 55 - waltz to your ATM machine for 35 years at a new novel low cost area to live and complain about Americans and the greedy private sector. Some people who drive buses, bulldozers and public transit can pop over 100k a year. It is time for a new line to start down Penn Ave for the coveted jobs.Don't forget the nonprofits that don't pay any taxes and most likely their employees vote for large corp taxes on the greedy private sector.
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    • Thu Oct 30th 10:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Next Investment Opportunity? Citigroup Analyst Says Healthcare Stocks
      The dems control congress for two years - the healthcare stocks are stagnant. Providing for 47m is a socialist gimmick used in South America and Europe as a collosal failure since you end up adulterating whatever poor healthcare you get already, wealthy fly to clinics, and rationing. I can name several hitech manuf who are floundering because hospital money is drying up for the latest equip.

      There in no increase in equipment purchases since private investors rarely find opportunity next to big labor big government social programs -look at the shortage of vaccines - the social policy caused many manuf to bail leaving shortages.

      On top of this don't forget the current Congress and new Adm will bring the tort lawyer lobby into the fold with guns blazing - they are silent before elections. Also the unlimited expanse of open arms immigration will slam the self insured side of the hospitals and cause massive drying up R and D and new equip. In other words every man for himself cash and carry and Thai hospitals for a fifth of the cost.
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    • Mon Oct 27th 09:56 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Uranium: Unloved and Unwatched
      You can's decouple politics and uranium (unless you are in an idealogical rage) The landscape calls for liberal labor party sweep across the US. This is the political energy trade unwind. The labor party would rather go to candles and campfires before uranium (even if candles would be a massive carbon footprint). Even natural gas is struggling with the political changes - in the next four years maybe the state sponsored radio station (NPR) will talk up uranium but the citizenry needs alot of honest dialogue which is not in the cards - hey look at the pandering with the anti nuclear crowd for ethanol!
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    • Sun Oct 26th 09:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Protecting Your Portfolio: A Look at Four Safe Haven Investments
      Very nice article - it really questions the case why a country with a high savings rate and trade surplus and strengthening currency doesn't always net good results for it's citizens - japan. Yet we constantly hear that we need all three in the US.

      But an investor needs to pick a strategy - is it deflationary or inflationary times? In deflationary times - why avoid the bonds? Look at corporate bond funds yielding 5-10% -if stocks are expected to deflate. Is the risk of default already priced in or not.
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    • Sat Oct 25th 18:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Short Selling Levels Down. Is This a Surprise?
      stock directions are not symmetric If a stock goes up it doesn't trigger bank covenants, customer confidence, supplier confidence, credit lines pulled, inability to issue equity, mgmt changes, employees layoffs and morale - going up in price mostly triggers envy. I am not worried about an inexperienced momentum trader getting sucked into buying a stock past it's fundementals. The two movements in house prices and anything economic is simply not symmectric. At the very least each trade should have an active buyer. No games with electronic trading pressure and rumour mongering.
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    • Sat Oct 25th 16:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Bloodbath?
      Don't forget there is trillions on the sidelines and most of the nations want this realignment to occur fast so they can carry on. Look for even the labor party (Dem)victory to make motions for reasonableness in it's first few days - because it needs to jobs to protect with tariffs and small business to tax.

      Once some clarity ( most likely gov proposals for the ST) is restored the flight of capital and confidence will slowly be restored there is no other choice - For me the stock market has been leading the way into the recession but no one knows the severity - sounds like an opportunity. Some stocks are at 15 year lows even with a cheaper dollar. In the end you don't have much of a choice when you are ignoring 5%-6% div yields on good companies. When you see the first M and A - watch the rush.

      No one mentions that if the structure of the US business environ was changed with no cap gain, no div tax, reduction in bus spending, slashing gov payrolls, the dow would shoot to 13000 overnight and help gov revenue.But I am only reciting what we insist emerging markets do with our IMF parameters and bailouts all with a great history of success. The US gov and it's many minions in Congress do not take the medicine it doles out.

      Public work projects like the bloated 18 billion BIG DIG does not get the 7 trillion in private money off the sidelines. With the exception of some canteen trucks private money does not invest alongside one-time boon doggle construction projects. They only buy votes -again history in Brazil, Arg, Korea bear this out.
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    • Tue Oct 14th 08:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Julian Robertson: Some Buying, but Bearish on the Economy
      I believe Clinton signed the bank deregulaiton in 1999 and the Dems refused to investigate a runaway housing agency that was in turn a key campaign contributor for them and actively still is. The collapse of this liberal corrupt agency is 4 trillion overhang and a resulting socialization of the banking and housing.

      I guess we are ready for the high school textbooks to rewrite the history ala the Kennedy memoirs .

      Don't forget the Democrats biggest highway project in history 18 billion dollars for increasing traffic through Boston and ceiling tiles still falling down 10 plus year laters. Public works projects are still revered by poorly educated groups of people who rather redistribute money and chase the remaining private capital overseas - out of pride and moral superiority.
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    • Fri Oct 10th 09:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's Too Late for Tax Cuts, Now's the Time To Increase Government Spending
      So we go back to WPA projects and pork projects from the great depression - I can't wait 10 years. Did it work - no.We have 7 trillion on the sidelines if the government wants more Big Dig projects at 18 billion in Boston - it was money in the wind. How does that entice private investors to jump in and build bridges with state union crews.

      Private money now has no allegience to leftist govern and the 7 trillion will go to government who are brave and independant - most likely Asian and East European countries - we will get a bigger flight of capital and reduced revenues Your proposal is a really a disgrace including the logic - the IMF which we ran in bailing out other govern would tell you to pack your bags. We can't stand our own medicine we told other countries - cut favorite pork projects - reduce govern and reduce taxation. Most countries in time like this unless IMF run have turned to socialism and never recovered. Politicians have no abiltiy to determine our economic well being - that is clearly demonstrated by now. This line of thinking is exactly why everyone is moving to the sidelines - somehow politicians will be able to healthcare, housing and now financial markets - increasing their power and diminishing private individuals.
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