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Latest Comments185 Comments
REITs vs. Homebuilders -- Not What You Think
www.billakanodoodahs.c...
Value Investing Is All About Struggling At Times
While it is easy to find methodologies that outperform the broader market over time, all of them suffer from periods of underperformance or even drawdown. The key is exercising discipline so that one doesn't switch from a method that works in general just because it didn't work "this time," and using money management so that the times it doesn't work don't wipe one out.
There are two dynamics going on here. First, what the "value managers" do is immaterial to the retail investor, as they are constrained by multiple rules
Which Party Is Better For the Market?
Ethanol Stocks Perk Up On OPEC Cut, Production Hopes
Nice inclusion of penny stocks. How liquid are those? Could I move the market in them with mom's IRA?
Homebuilders ETF: Looking for a Cheaper Entry
As an aside, the first thing we have to do is find any root of the thought that what happens to the homebuilding industry is in any fashion related to what happens to the stock prices of the homebuilders. The "homeys" have been severely punished, cut off not at the knees, but at the waist. The building industry is in FAR better shape (albeit bad shape) than the building stocks are. I'm not buying the industry. I might buy the stocks.
We have spent four-plus months forming a basing pattern with a wide range. Those who believe in additional downside are best served by selling short at the top of the range following a reversal candle. Those who believe in the mean reversion long play are best served by buying a breakout above the range, or placing a limit order in the bottom half of the range.
Best of luck! I'm about 100% long already and waiting for the homebuilders to have a convincing breakout! When that happens, I'll either liquidate another trade or add capital to the account.
My Parlux Fragrances Adventure: A Painful Investing Lesson
Second, never catch a falling knife. Just look at the chart, is it falling? Don't buy. Wait until it stops falling, then buy. Don't catch falling knives, let them hit the ground, then bounce, then settle - then buy.
Third, you are probably leaving the stock at the absolute worst time. NOW is the time to buy, not then. That is, if you think it's a good value ...
Pacific Ethanol No Longer An Ethanol Stock Without Any Production
Based on the technicals, my bias is "leave it alone and let the day-traders let go of it first."
I wouldn't be surprised to see it trade in a wide range and go horizontal for a while. Assuming that a reader disagrees with my take on the company as a worthless piece of garbage that wouldn't exist without a terribly strong corn subsidy lobby and tariffs on imported sugar and sugar ethanol that make very rich friends of Jeb even richer, I would suggest letting the stock establish its horizontal channel, and placing a limit order near the bottom of it. If a reader agrees with my take and is looking to get short, same advice but limit short order at the top of the channel.
Pacific Ethanol No Longer An Ethanol Stock Without Any Production
While it may be a stock with production, it is still a stock withOUT profits. Matter of fact, it looks like they're on pace to take in more cash from stock issuance than they do from revenue in 2006. I don't think this company has any financial merit other than rank speculation, and the price is almost back to pre-hysteric levels so there's not much short potential. Given that oil is on a downslide along with the price of refined gas, my guess is that PEIX will be hanging around at the current levels for a while.
Ethanol is dead for 2006 and possibly most of 2007. Like all fads, long 'em when they're hot and short 'em as soon as they're not!
Yahoo Should Be a Winner For Patient Investors
Ford Cancels Dividends -- Will Investors Cancel Their Holdings?
Mainstream Media Still Mystified By Blogs
The blogger provides content that Seeking Alpha (and, in this case, Yahoo) can sell advertisements over. If I were to read this piece at Yahoo!Finance, from the finance page to the bottom of the article I'd see 22 ads, including two links to SA.
The blogger gets his work read. They may not remember the blogger's name, but the reader will read it, and he'll get a lot of readers. If it's read by a large number of people, he may get traffic, but the click-thru rate has got to be awful. Think about it - the link to the blogger's site is one hyperlink on the guy's name, whereas he's facing multiple links to SA and dozens of ads competing for that click ... and there's not much incentive to visit his site, because you just read the complete work. Not like a teaser or an excerpt. I'm guessing a fivefold increase in readership is probably a 3% increase in traffic, or thereabouts. One can monetize traffic, but it's harder to monetize readers when the traffic is somewhere else.
I WILL rag on Joe Kernen (with an E). Apparently he didn't stop to think about the intrepid fact-checkers at the mainstream media who never ever get anything wrong ....
Jim Cramer's Mad Money In-Depth Stock Picks, Sept. 6
US Dollar Pop Confusing
Also, one shouldn't confuse "housing" with "homebuilder stocks." The homebuilder stocks are already down much further than warranted from the housing situation, and they have stabilized. I'm waiting for the Fed to start making noises about rate cuts to buy into the homeys. I expect this to happen by March.
Along that time, I expect enough grumblings about "global economic slowdown" and the "r word" to have surfaced so that rate cuts are being considered worldwide. So there'll be limited dollar play.
The Iranians Take a Page from the Old Soviet Book
Just like Iraq. Or Afghanistan. Or ....
Paul - Do you think their GDP just might be depressed as the result of 27 years of trade sanctions, enacted as revenge for the Iranian overthrow of the puppet dictator Shah?
Alpha - Do you think the fact that Iran has to import refined oil might be a sound reason why they're pursuing nuclear power generation? In light of that, perhaps the objections to their obtaining nuclear technology are a "red herring" used to distract viewers from the long-existing plans of conquest and control over world oil supplies?
Pacific Ethanol Posts Impressive Second Quarter