NO DooDahs

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com
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    • Mon Aug 21st 16:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pacific Ethanol Posts Impressive Second Quarter
      Type PEIX in the top left corner of this page, in the search bar. Look for the mid-April comment where I spoke of the ethanol mania, said it was a good horse to ride on for the mania, and that it would be a good short in 2006. Then go to Yahoo!Finance and calculate the stock's float turnover. It's insane. Then a prospective investor should actually read the Q's and K's and proxy. That should scare them off.

      See this link:
      www.movethemarkets.com...

      Daytraders love the volatility of PEIX.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 21st 16:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pacific Ethanol Posts Impressive Second Quarter
      One can enter "peix" in the search box and read all the articles on this stock pretty easily.

      My personal favorite was energy.seekingalpha.co... in mid-April, where I stated "PEIX is overvalued and a very poor long-term investment. That being said, there is a current market mania for all things ethanol, and PEIX is a good horse to ride up that hill. Just be forewarned, while it makes a good long play today, it will make a good short play in 2006, and all PEIX is, is a "play." Don't buy it and then go on a cruise .... "

      PEIX is a prime example of the irrationality of markets. Take this chart and some of these threads to your finance prof when he starts babbling about the "efficient market hypothesis."

      If you want evidence of PEIX play by day-traders, look here finance.yahoo.com/q/ks... for the volume average and divide it by the float. Turnover like that is only possible by daytraders. Oh wait, look here www.movethemarkets.com... and you'll see that PEIX is #7 on the top 100 list of stocks to day trade.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 21st 09:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Pacific Ethanol Posts Impressive Second Quarter
      "Investors" might want to wait until the day-traders are through playing with this equity before buying and holding. "Investors" might also want to consider the millions of shareholders who bought this stock for over $25 - they might be looking to sell at anything close to breakeven and may provide a good deal of overhead supply aka resistance.

      Readers - please search the SA archives for previous comments (by me and by others) dating back a few months. You might enjoy them.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 18th 17:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sears: Too Cheap to Resist
      SHLD looks like a technical short to me. Not a setup I like, though.

      ADM is a swing-trader's stock right now. Check the chart with a slow stochastic. You be long it at the open on Monday - trail stop of 1.25 or so. It'll stop out in a week or so ...
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 17th 11:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Prediction For The Rest of 2006
      My prediction for the S&P 500 index was:
      79% chance of ending 2006 up from YE 2005,
      50% chance of ending 2006 up 13.4% or more from YE 2005, and
      13% chance of ending 2006 down 10% or more from YE 2005.

      That 50/50 target is just over 1400.

      Given that we're up 3.9% YTD in the index, I'm standing by those predictions. Keep in mind the div-adjusted return on SPY is 5%.

      Personally I'm up 18% on all stocks and usually 90%+ long. What the index does is not as much of a concern as what the stocks I buy do.

      My predictions were published here.
      www.marketthoughts.com...
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 15th 09:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Really Makes the Dollar Move?
      David, I think your "humility" as expressed in this post might just have turned off more accredited investors than were impressed by your exposition of currency trading acumen. One thing about having to depend on investors throwing millions at you in order to earn a living is, you might want to keep in mind how they might view your actions or posts. I guess that's the good thing about investing your own money and blogging for your own entertainment. Unless, of course, your investors are the type that enjoy your attitude, in which case, enjoy the niche!

      Oh, about the dollar trade being WB's biggest mistake or one of his only losses ever, a question. How much did he lose on KO? How big a mistake was it not to sell when it traded for close to 100 P/E about 6-7 years ago? Regardless of the fact that he didn't sell the position, he still took a loss on it.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 15th 09:22 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Hewitt Revisited -- Slowing Growth, Overpriced Shares
      "Percentage of completion" also allows a company to perform "earnings smoothing shenanigans" and thus it's prudent to check the financials of any company that uses "percentage of completion" for a large portion of their earnings and/or expenses.

      As I mentioned in an earlier comment on HEW, the stock didn't tank beside of insider selling, the insider mentioned was selling because he saw the stock would tank.

      Curious, no?
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 14th 12:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What is a Stock Worth? Part 4 – Discounted Cash Flow Models
      It has occurred to me ... The problem with the question "what is a stock worth?" is that stocks DON'T HAVE a "true value." Value is subjective. There is only the value YOU think it has, and the price that it's trading at - which is somewhere BETWEEN the value that the last seller and the last buyer think it has. That discrepancy is typically viewed as "irrational" by the value investor.

      The two opportunities for profit in the irrationality of markets are generally (a) wait for a return to rationality i.e. mean reversion and (b) ride the irrationality i.e. trend-following. Both work if properly executed, but most investors prefer one or the other.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 14th 12:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What is a Stock Worth? Part 4 – Discounted Cash Flow Models
      Playing with different R and G is the basis of "stupid analyst tricks" like the much-balleyhooed $600 call on GOOG earlier this year. Every investor should know that analysts' price targets usually come from some mast, er, manipulation of this formula.

      I treat the DCF on earnings as a sentiment measure, which is how I interpret the phrase "identifying companies with imbedded expectations." I compare the current P/E of the stock to the "assumed growth" that such a P/E would correspond to given my (very conservative) discount rate, and if the two are really far apart, I know that there's potential there (either long or short or both in alternation).

      In practice, I do two- or three-stage models with the growth reverting to the S&P 500 historical mean after some length of time. This creates some math, but just about everyone has a spreadsheet program on their computers nowadays ...
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 9th 06:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lots of Value Riding the Railroad
      These look like value traps to me. Don't get railroaded into losing equity. If there's a turnaround, you can still participate, but buying them now could be catching a falling knife.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 7th 15:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is it Time to Buy US Homebuilder Shares?
      I'd like to see a confirmed uptrend before buying. Under my current technical guidelines, if I were still short any homeys I'd be covering if today closes up 1/2% or more. It's not a buy yet IMO but I see if I did, I would see a close below 29 as a big fat "mistake" sign and a good stop. I wouldn't stop based on an intraday move in the current market.

      Given the uncertainty of the Fed statement's content, I would not like to do anything with the homeys, long or short, going into tomorrow.

      I've been saying for months that the homebuilder worm would turn in 2006. Maybe it's even sooner than I thought ... see my SA author page for several pieces, several months ago, on the homebuilders.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 6th 09:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Corrections Corp of America: Prison Play Could Lock in Some Mad Gains
      This is a good technical momentum play as well. Simply a stunning chart. Play the momentum with a trailing stop and give it some room!
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 4th 23:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Ford Mulling Sale of Its Jaguar Unit and Credit Union
      It seems like only yesterday that Ford bought Jaguar and pillaged the company's independent design teams, turning Jags into re-sheetmetaled Fords and Lincolns. At least they cured the Jag's inherent electrical problems, but they also "cured" the Jag's character and prestige.

      Reminds me of GM's "Fiat-sco" and also what GM did with Saab.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 4th 14:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fairfax Financial: Deserving of a Discount?
      "Deserve's got nothin' to do with it." - Clint Eastwood as Will Munny in "Unforgiven."...

      What YOU see as undervalued is what some other folks see as a leveraged company with complicated, opaque financials, low ROE, and a egotistic management that's more concerned with the stock price than with the books. Everyone votes with their money, and the stock is priced according to sentiment, not the fundamentals. Sentiment = the money-weighted average opinion about the facts.

      Now, maybe you've got your facts right and they don't. Maybe they've got the facts right and you don't. I dunno.

      However, it IS a sharp stick in the eye to see that, the day after they file suit about shortsellers being critical of their accounting, they announce a restatement due to accounting errors. Does the phrase "stupid company tricks" ring a bell?

      This company (FFH) looked like it might have been a halfway decent value opportunity to me late last year. When I wrote about it, what kept me from buying was the reliance on financing cash and the inscrutable books and corporate relationships that made it hard to value. I WORK for an insurer and have some small amount of actuarial talent, and FFH defied me figuring out what it was worth. YMMV (your mileage may vary).

      Do you have a good idea of a piecemeal value for FFH and its holdings? Do you understand its bookkeeping? I don't. Warren Buffett said you shouldn't buy something you didn't understand. Since we're talking about valuation here, I guess those are appropriate questions.
      View article »
    • Wed Aug 2nd 11:37 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Options Trader: Wednesday Morning Ideas
      If anyone cashed out at the open on Friday morning based on your call, they'd be the poorer for it.
      View article »
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