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Latest Comments185 Comments
Fear in the Market - Time to Buy
Catch the Beginning of the Coming Bounce: Buy, Buy, Buy
Those who have taken dollars from the checking account, under the sofa cushions, the savings accounts, CDs, etc., or sold off their bonds into this foolhardy panic, will be well rewarded in the coming months and years by
BUYING STOCKS DURING THIS TURMOIL!
Why a Goldman Sachs Hedge Fund Investment Might Look Attractive
Buy and holders of bonds don't care about the quote or the market for the bond as much as traders do; they're in it for the yield. Now, the auditor is gonna want the company to get a bid on inventory every once in a while, and will appreciate if they go out and hit the bid a few times a year, but otherwise, they want yield.
Some hedgies playing the yield game may recognize the mark to market in a low-liquidity sitchooayshun will result in paper losses for the fund. When a market returns for the bonds, the mark to market will be UP. So what to do?
That hedgie might choose to recapitalize the fund until such time as the market returns to normalcy.
Does this sound ... familiar?
How To Survive the Market Sinkhole
Think about this: a hedge fund want to short 10,000 shares of XYZ, but "needs" an uptick. So they have their computer MANUFACTURE an uptick by buying a block of 500 at the ask, then turn around and short 10,000, then sell their 500. BFD.
Only retail joe is benefited by the uptick, and there are two things you need to know about joe. First, he's usually stupid and will short after the move is over, anyways, and second, he doesn't have enough money to move the markets.
How To Survive the Market Sinkhole
usmarket.seekingalpha....
Now is the time to be an aggressive BUYER, if your market outlook is longer than a few weeks.
Regarding stops, just my opinion, but in this market a stop loss acts the same way as PANIC does, and you said "don't panic." These positions (advocating stop losses and advocating "don't panic") are contradictory in the current market, as a stop loss will often SELL AT THE BOTTOM, just like a person would in panic.
Again, just my opinion, but stop losses (esp. trailing stops) are best in gently trending markets, where they can alert me to changes of trend. In a volatile market, I would much rather leave the position open, go home, have a good dinner and a cup of coffee, and calmly decide whether to sell, or not, or buy more.
Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below
www.billakanodoodahs.c.../
Feel free to scare yourselves silly into selling to someone like me, or going short here. Enjoy!
Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below
If there were NO liquidity, NO money coming into the stock market, then the shares wouldn't change hands.
If there was very little liquidity, wouldn't you expect a bigger drop than 2-3%? After all, the stock market has seen 20% drops in a day, hasn't it?
If there was less liquidity now than last week, wouldn't the prices today be lower than last week's prices?
Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below
If you multiply the day's shares by the typical (average of OHLC) price they traded at, then about $182.38 BILLION changed hands today, JUST on the S&P 500.
Now, since the volume is up 60%, then that means that (1.60 -1 )/ 1.60 = 37.5% of the volume today was EXTRA liquidity added to the market.
Hmmm, that's $68.39 BILLION extra dollars flooding into the stock market, buying shares that Y'ALL don't want.
Let's wait a few months and see who the smart money was ...
And exactly how much money is represented by all the sub-prime loans that could possibly go belly-up? The extra liquidity represented by today's action ALONE would have bought 273,500 median homes. Not considering the extra liquidity brought into the market over the last month.
Wanna bet the whole "sub prime" deal is a little bit overdone?
Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below
Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below
;-)
Thinking about raiding the bank account for more. LOL!
Market Sinkhole Alert: Look Out Below
The crescendo of fear-mongering and crash calls is deafening; fear is palpable; time to add to the equity account!
John Hussman: Long-Term Investors Should Be Disturbed by This Market's Rich Valuations
John Hussman: Long-Term Investors Should Be Disturbed by This Market's Rich Valuations
You might try reading his prospectus while you're at it. He supposedly has his fund designed to outperform in bull markets, which it clearly hasn't.
If you want a bear fund, may I suggest BEARX?
John Hussman: Long-Term Investors Should Be Disturbed by This Market's Rich Valuations
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...;p=D&yr=8&...
Here's a chart for Hussman's Total Return fund, compared to the SPY.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...;p=D&yr=8&...
With FIVE CONSECUTIVE YEARS of underperformance, should we be listening to John?
What Will Trigger the Next Global Economic Crisis?
Hey, check your calendar while you're updating your clock. Is it Kondratieff Winter?