NO DooDahs

http://www.billakanodoodahs.com
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    • Wed Jun 20th 13:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Microvision Ready For a Big Fall?
      Allow me to speculate. David, do you have any positions in MVIS?

      I have to ask, because it is a rarity to see totally anonymous articles published here. I'm sure there have been others, but I can't think of any others that come to mind. Most of the authors at SA are identified by name, and even the ones that are identified by a pen name usually have a disclosure of their identity somewhere on their blog.

      It is just so rare, and so out of place, to see an article written that is completely anonymous and not tied to another body of work.

      SO! I ask again. David, do YOU have a position in MVIS?
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 18th 10:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold Bullion: Experiencing Normal Bull Market Reprise
      Your chart is in error. We passed the "speculative mania" stage of the current bull market in gold during May of 2006. Sorry you missed it ...
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 17th 19:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Riding the Bull by Writing Puts on Large-Caps - Barron's
      Let's just assume that someone bullish and 100% long takes this "advice" from the "gurus" at Barron's, and sells some $50 puts on KO. If things go really wrong, and KO falls to $45, then for every single put contract they sold, they'd have to buy 100 shares of KO for $5000 when those shares were trading for $4500. So either you're stuck with ponying up all the money and keeping the shares, which will be underwater, or you have to pony up $500 in cash for each contract's loss.

      And what's the upside? You get to keep the premium you sold the puts for.

      It's hard not to cuss at an idea that is this stupid. Limited upside, unlimited risk. Makes me glad I don't subscribe to Barron's.

      Here's an idea: if you're bullish, BUY. Buy shares or buy calls or buy futures. Limited downside and unlimited upside.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 16th 17:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Impressive Market Move, But I'm Still Defensive
      Oh, maybe I've been quiet HERE, on SA comments, but I've been noisy on my own blog (click my name for link) and at the MarketThoughts Forum.

      Short answer: It's sustainable.

      Long answer: My models show neutral on gains for the next week and month, but safe. My models are bullish and safe for the next twelve months. I would not be surprised to see a pullback to 1515 based on the charts (and the models), but I believe that will be followed by a forward move. I am 88% long stocks with 12% cash, and I'm looking for where to put that cash. I will use any weakness to either double down on existing holding, buy a new opportunity, or combine my cash with margin into a SPY timing trade. The only reason I've got cash is that I had to sell a loser and I sold a stock that got acquired (why watch it dance around by a quarter dollar around the announced price for months?).
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 16th 11:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Impressive Market Move, But I'm Still Defensive
      Didn't know I had stumbled onto a bear blog.

      Last week gave us a panic sell, the highest decline to advance ratio in the NYSE in the last two years. Great entry point if you weren't already int.

      Two months ago we had more panic selling, and record-high TRIN. Recovery from there was a great entry point.

      13 months ago there was a 7% correction in the SPX (10% in the Naz), another great entry point.

      Keep following the macro. I note that the most prominent macro writers have been bearish on the markets for four years now, so either the market doesn't follow macro, or the prominent macro writers don't know what they're writing about. Keep looking for exits, too. Ta-ta.
      View article »
    • Sat Jun 16th 08:41 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Impressive Market Move, But I'm Still Defensive
      Your dip, and entry point, just passed you by.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 12th 11:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Fleetwood Enterprises: High Gas Prices Means Slow RV Sales
      The problems I have with your writeup are that it lacks understanding of the issues on several accounts, lacks historical perspective, and apparently lacks research to back your conclusion (high gas prices = declining sales), which seems to have been predetermined.

      RV owners "might as well fly?" Why? There's a lot to the RV experience that you don't seem to understand. There's a freedom of the open road and a itinerary that is penciled, not inked, in; there's an atmosphere at the parks and campgrounds where people meet their neighbors and chat; you can bring a lot more of home with you in an RV, including toys like ATVs or motorcycles, and you get to cook your own food. Keep in mind that the gas bill is shared by a family, while plane tickets are per person. There's also the fact that 5 nights at an RV park are a lot cheaper than 5 nights at a hotel. I don't think gas prices are going to influence that, and gas would have to be pretty expensive to outweigh the increased costs of parking your personal vehicle at the departure airport, renting another vehicle at the other airport, eating out, and increased lodging costs. One can bring their pets and get electric, water/sewer, and cable hookups, plus wifi and waterfront for around $30 a night in an RV park.

      You have a glaring error in your writeup: "fourth quarter sales decrease of 16% over last year, and within that, the RV group took a particular hit, declining by 12% for the quarter." Hmm. It seems to me that if the average decrease was 16% and the RV group took 12%, that SOME OTHER GROUP besides RVs is the culprit. Like the Housing group? Duh, they only got cut in half! Plus, the housing group was shrinking before Katrina, in absolute and in share-of-revenues terms. BTW, if one really believes that stick-built housing is on the fritz for a while, and interest rates are going nowhere but up, the housing group could actually be a good turn-around segment. But back to the issue at hand, let's not forget that RV's, especially towables, have some really mean post-Katrina comps to meet. Not to worry, though, FEMA is hiding all of those trailers in Nebraska rather than releasing them on the open market, so there won't be a flood of used ones anytime soon. Plus, with the condition that FEMA is keeping them in, there won't be many buyers ...

      I can understand why you want to sensationalize the gas price issue, it's sexy and current, and would be attractive to the mindset of the typical AOLer (disclosure, I'm on AOL, but apparently not typical). However, the price of gasoline would have little to do with the sales of the Housing group (-48%). It's obvious that Katrina had a huge impact on the Towable sales. Where one would expect gasoline prices to show up the most is the Class A and Class C sales, the Motor Home group, because these are the vehicles that consume their own gas. Fascinatingly, this group was +26% in sales, quarter to quarter. So much for gas prices. Year over year, this group was only –6% in sales, compared to the Towables –22% on Katrina comps.

      I'm not long FLE, although with a short ratio of 3 weeks to cover and almost a year of trading under $9.50, it actually looks mildly interesting to me as a trade, after some review. It's obviously a company with some problems, and I'm not convinced it's a buy. I am convinced that your writeup needed some debunking, however.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 23rd 09:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      80% of the S&P 500 Currently Trading Above 20-, 200-Day Moving Averages
      Do you have this information going farther back? Specifically, to the extended bull run of the early 90's, or earlier? Perhaps this is a normal condition during a bull market.
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 22nd 10:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Looking at the S&P 500 in Yen and Euros
      Hmm. Looks like a four-year bull market in all three currencies! Also looks like August of 2006 was a great buying opportunity in all three currencies!
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 14th 09:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Contango: Roll Yield Rewards
      It would be good to examine the CL contract over a longer term. Although in contango at present, from 1995 to today there has been little net bias in the contract – sometimes backwardated, sometimes contangoed. This is unlike the Gold contract, which has had such a severe contango over the last dozen years that cost of carry would have killed most of the long-term futures bull's profits.

      I would doubt that any recent explanation of the current contango would be rigorous if it did not go back over a decade, preferably more than one decade, to examine causes of previous futures contract spreads in the CL.
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 8th 13:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recipe for an Expensive Market
      Paul, stock selection is a large component of outperformance. If you were to further screen those forty-odd stocks by reading proxies, assessing the quality of earnings via various metrics, and focus on those with high projected growth and/or low PEG, you wouldn't be too far from a good long-term porfolio.

      Back to the subject of P/Es, it is probably a little strange to call a P/E of 16.2 "expensive" in today's yield market. Hence my comment that this is just Barry looking to be Beary.
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 8th 10:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Look at Foreclosures per State
      Seeing as how the homebuilders' stocks bottomed in July and have outperformed the S&P 500 since then;

      Seeing as how the homebuilders's stocks still (as of mid-Jan) have nearly universal high short interest in terms of days to cover;

      Seeing as how your economic-based "read" on stock market direction has been persistently bearish in the face of a prolonged rally, and that "housing" has been a big contributor to your economic viewpoint – based on the 3,710 mentions of "housing" that Google finds on your site;

      I have come to the conclusion that your compiled work on "housing" over the last seven months will go down in history as a major contrarian indicator, just as your

      cult of the bear I,
      cult of the bear II,
      cult of the bear III,
      BW 2004 prediction,
      BW 2005 prediction , and
      BW 2006 prediction have.
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 7th 12:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Look at Foreclosures per State
      Good questions all, David, but since Seeking Alpha is billed as "the leading provider of stock market opinion and analysis from blogs, money managers and investment newsletters" I'm still left wondering what the heck foreclosures have to do with the stock market!

      All of the bad news about "housing" is out already; homebuilders stocks have rebounded after being excessively punished early in 2006, and are now outperforming the market re: the chart I posted in my previous comment; unless I were a national real estate investor, relative foreclosure rates by state don't do anything to help me.

      There is no stock market trade in the data presented.
      View article »
    • Wed Feb 7th 10:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Look at Foreclosures per State
      Unless one is into buying distressed properties for resale or rental, this information is useless. I though Seeking Alpha was about investing in the financial markets and not about being a landlord.

      The homebuilding stocks bottomed in July and have outperformed the broader market ever since. Investors have already discounted all of the "bad news" in "housing" as noted by the 33% relative price kneecapping taken from May to July.

      See the chart.

      You can cry and moan about how bad housing is, but the investors in homebuilding stocks already know it. Further, stock market trading isn't about where the companies are going, but where they are going relative to price – and the homeys have already been punished too much for "housing."
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 6th 15:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recipe for an Expensive Market
      Is your position re: Europe and U.S. equities bearish, bullish, or neutral? Is there a trade in this article?

      Now, 16.2 PE is an earnings yield of 6.2%, which is 1.3% above that of 10 Yr Treasuries. Is that a difference you find unattractive? What difference would you find attractive?

      A "fair" PE for a stock with 6% long-term annual growth in earnings and desired return of 11% is 21.2, per the formula at moneychimp.com/article... If one assumes that mega-caps can acheive anything close to their historic 6% annualized growth, it would seem that a PE of 16.2 is cheap.

      Do you disagree with the "constant-growth&... version of the discounted earnings model or the 6% growth projection?

      Or are you just looking for reasons to be bearish?
      View article »
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