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    • Thu Jan 25th 10:06 AM
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      Commented on:
      The Message of the Markets: Wrong at Turning Points
      How about "beware the advice of an economist when you're trying to trade profitably?"
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    • Thu Jan 18th 15:04 PM
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      What Does the Increase in Margin Trading on the NYSE Mean?
      I'm sure it means (a) the collapse of the housing market, (b) the collapse of the stock market, (c) the collapse of the U.S. economy, and (d) a bullish case for gold.

      I say that because those are the things you *always* see in whatever data you post.

      Cheers!
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    • Wed Jan 17th 15:59 PM
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      Seven Reasons Why It's Time To Sell
      I see that on May 3, 2006, according to your website, you moved to cash and cash equivalents, and you've been pretty much sounding the "bear alert" ever since. For instance, in early October 2006, you re-iterated the "bear alert" and flight to cash just as the major averages were passing the points where you initially advised to sell stocks and raise cash.

      In light of the fact that the S&P 500 is now 100 points higher, the Dow is 1200 points higher, and the Nasdaq is 150 points higher, are your clients happy with your strategy?
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    • Tue Jan 16th 19:00 PM
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      John Hussman: Overbought, Overbullish Climate Leaves No Room to Get Out
      "Overbought" is usually CODE for either (1) I'm missing the rally or (2) I'm short and feeling some pain.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 16th 17:47 PM
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      John Hussman: Overbought, Overbullish Climate Leaves No Room to Get Out
      Have a read at his archives. He rarely, if ever, has anything positive to say about the overall market. I lend more credence to bearish perspectives from those who seem more balanced. YMMV (your mileage may vary).
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    • Tue Jan 16th 14:23 PM
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      John Hussman: Overbought, Overbullish Climate Leaves No Room to Get Out
      Went and read the prospectus.

      Since "ovoboby" didn't exist when you bought that $53 million of puts listed in your last annual report, you know, the ones that expired worthless and dragged down performance by 1.8% or so? Those puts. Well I assume that now "ovoboby" is around you probably bought a lot more puts for the coming year. Or possibly further out-of-the-money puts.

      I LOVE this line in your report: "As usual, short-term fluctuations in the major indices can have a strong effect on these brief performance comparisons." It would always be a short-term fluctuation in the indices and not ever a fluctuation in the holdings, and it would never be a result of hedging when you shouldn't.
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    • Tue Jan 16th 13:52 PM
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      John Hussman: Overbought, Overbullish Climate Leaves No Room to Get Out
      Am I to assume, then, that the cash percentage in each and every one of the funds you manage is at the maximum allowable per prospectus? Hmm?
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    • Wed Jan 10th 17:04 PM
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      The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories
      I would say "interesting but immaterial," except that it isn't interesting. Not to me, at least. I want the trading implications.

      I can read "Mother Earth News" for all the greenie stuff.
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    • Wed Jan 10th 09:37 AM
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      No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
      The real blow to his credibility comes from the incessant hype, the "stock of the year" bullspit he laid down. If he had merely said, "hey, I like KRY here and this is why" that would be one thing. But for this dweeb to hype it up like it's the Second Coming, a triple-in-a-year stock, to all of the readers he was "helping" to "educate and inform," while not having a position, is nothing short of incredulous.

      I think Seeking Alpha should take a good, hard look at the disclosure policies of their writers, and should consider canning Cara.
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    • Tue Jan 9th 22:11 PM
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      The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories
      Yes I do.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 9th 11:58 AM
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      No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
      Humbug! Put the Federal Register next the U.S. Constitution and you'll see some "trampling!" LOL!

      The real folly is anybody thinking a piece of paper could restrain "government."... Those in power do what they think they can get away with, regardless of what country they're in ... or party they belong to ...
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    • Tue Jan 9th 11:31 AM
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      Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
      As mentioned in a later comment on a Cara post, I was mistaken on the float and ownership dynamics of KRY stated here. I "assumed" since it was a junior minor it was low float and under-institutioned. That was a MISTAKE!

      KRY is in fact very large float for a company of its ilk and has widespread institutional ownership.

      I apologize to readers for the lack of research in the Sat Jan 6 2:28 pm comment.
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    • Tue Jan 9th 11:27 AM
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      No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
      I do not know the AMEX rules nor the rules of any other exchange. When I research potential shorts, I simply check with my broker for a borrow. Perhaps that is a prudent course if you're interested in KRY as a short.

      I am short MGD at the moment, I use a constant risk size per trade, and would not short two golds at the same time with full position sizes on both. So I am out of any KRY trade right now, neutral, other than rattling Cara's perma-bearish gold-buggish cage in a public forum.
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    • Tue Jan 9th 11:22 AM
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      The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories
      The average dividend yield for major integrated oil companies is 2.7% with a max of 4.1% (Eni) and the U.S.-based ones all under 3%.

      Do you think the shares have less than 3% of continued downside? Just curious ...
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 9th 11:02 AM
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      No Reason To Panic On Crystallex
      Short squeeze? What stock's ticker are you looking at? KRY is as likely to get a "shorts squeeze" as I am, and I "go commando."

      Stocks most likely to get a short squeeze are those whose shares short are high in proportion to their average daily volume, a metric known as "days to cover." Widely distributed shares and a high volume of floating shares are more prone to squeezes as well. Lastly, good or better-than-expected news is needed as a catalyst. I would think any experienced trader would know this ...

      The latest data available for KRY is less than 7 million shares short, on a float of 244 million shares, and the last couple of days of price waterfall have seen 12 million plus shares exchanged (average volume around 3 million shares daily over the last 45 days). The stock is owned by 71 institutions and over a dozen mutual funds. It's tough to get a squeeze out of dynamics like that – high float and low days to cover with a wide institutional ownership.
      View article »