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    • Tue Jan 9th 09:26 AM
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      The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories
      Greg,

      The cost of oil is indeed determined by the contracts exchanged at major bourses around the world. I am not naïve, you are merely grossly mis-educated. Not only do producers and consumers buy and sell to hedge future costs, but speculators exchange contracts as well. Sometimes, but not always, these speculators are correct about trends in supply and demand. Sometimes they are incorrect. Like speculators everywhere, they are prone to irrationality.

      I did not, in my previous comment, make any case for a trend in supply/demand, bearish or bullish. Quite a while ago, when I was long several stocks in the oil sector, I made a case for continued pressure on supply that would eventually lead to oversupply and demand destruction, with a timeline of 5-10 years. I still believe in that case, but I also believe that the price of oil has disconnected from the fundamentals over the past year or so.

      "Learn the market or lose" – I love it!
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 8th 17:47 PM
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      Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
      KRY down double-digit % today.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 8th 16:37 PM
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      Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
      Nah, no such luck. Just as the "idiot light" breakout was occurring, Aug 17, he printed this.
      "This market rocket will run out ... "
      www.billcara.com/archi...

      Hey, seldom do you see a more easy-to-find "W" bottom on support with a breakout confirming. Nobody shoulda missed that. If I'da had better horses under me, that rally would've made my year rather than just being "OK."
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 8th 16:23 PM
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      Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
      Got a link for that call? Be nice to share it with his SeekingAlpha readers. Especially if he *never* took the long side.

      After all, it would be understandable for a technical trader to sell in the May-Jun period if operating under a re-entry criteria, and mid-August was definitely the "idiot light" on the buy back in.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 8th 15:19 PM
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      Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
      Oh, he's definitely one of those types that is always bearish on stocks in general, "the economy," and bullish on gold. Him and several like him are analogous to the old man carrying the "end of the world is nigh" sign on the street corner, except they're cleaned up, and, God forbid, managing other people's money in some cases.

      There's another one out here, similarly poor forecaster. But, they do get the press!

      I can guarantee the exchange-traded stock of the year hasn't been heard about yet. It will be some low-float, micro-cap come-from-nowhere.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 8th 15:12 PM
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      NovaStar: Don't Say You Weren't Warned
      The "Death Star"!!!! Favorite of shorts for years based on its accounting!!!!
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 8th 14:03 PM
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      The Energy Bear Case Is At Odds With Falling Inventories
      Might it be that the prior bull was disconnected from any *fundamentals* by large speculative positions, hence the so-called "bear" case is really an unwinding of those speculations? After all, there was nothing *fundamental* that justified $80 oil from a $20 print not too long ago. This works for copper as well. The positions can unwind and cause lower prices regardless of what happens in "the economy."

      Gas and oil prices are driven by *money* changing hands at futures markets, not by the "the economy." Hardly rational, and hardly *fundamental*.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 8th 12:12 PM
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      A Quick Guide To Water Utility Stocks
      What, no UU? Granted, not a pure water play ...
      View article »
    • Sat Jan 6th 14:28 PM
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      Cara's Stock of the Year for 2007: Crystallex
      The crystal ball may need polishing. Regardless, the low float on the stock would certainly create leverage, IFF (if and only if) gold futures rise dramatically. In the event that they don't, i.e. they die a slow death or worse, fall below $550 as I think they will, then this stock will collapse, but it WON'T make a good short - the low float and lack of institutional sponsorship guarantee that.
      View article »
    • Sat Jan 6th 09:49 AM
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      Motorola Revises Q4 Forecast, Says It's 'Very Disappointed'
      "Fallen angel" value stock entry point, anyone?

      I'm not interested at the moment, but it fits the mold. Remember PFE just a month ago?
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 3rd 11:09 AM
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      2006 Global Returns: China, Russia Drive Big Gains
      You say "(not us!)" and in reviewing the article, the "(not us!)" doesn't appear. I take that to mean that YOU, or Ritholtz Capital, thought that emerging markets made a good play at some point in 2006.

      Did you ever express that position in your blog, sir?

      If so, please direct your readers to a post or link where you DID express that opinion.

      If not, why are you now crowing "(not us!)" - it's unverifiable.

      What is your current opinion of the tradeability of the foreign markets? I can read MarketBeat via MarketBeat, it would be nice if you could add value to the conversation.

      FWIW - at the moment I'm bullish on China and Mexico, the Wifeykins has the ETFs in her IRA (with trailing stop loss orders), but I am not trading the ETFs in my account. I have one China stock that I am long (and wrote about) and two others on the watchlist. I have no opinion or position on other foreign markets.
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    • Wed Jan 3rd 07:51 AM
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      Mean Reversion: When There Is Blood In the Streets, It's Time To Buy
      Human nature doesn't change. The mentioned anomalies, along with dozens of others, will continue to work. The only "efficiency" in the markets is the movement of money from those who don't understand this ... to those who do.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 2nd 19:18 PM
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      Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!
      Click my name to visit my blog. My watchlist and trades are public and updated within 24 hours of making a move. Check for the review of the 2006 prognostications as well. Technical and fundamental. Look on my links page and you can find some articles I've written for another site, not about macro but about individual stocks.

      Back to the subject of Beary ...

      I would love to see links to specific posts where he detailed analysis on those equities you mentioned. I've seen his blog and several samples of his newsletter and have found zero actionable insight in them, just rambling about econ, but I can't say I've read *everything* he's ever written. I searched his site with Google looking for where he discusses his returns ... he doesn't. I searched the internet for his hedge fund's returns ... couldn't find them. I do know that he was way wrong, way low, three years in a row on the BusinessWeek survey and his macro views blinded him to the market rally this year, where he's been bearish on it for six months. Stopped clocks aren't right often, but somehow, they get attention - provided they are bearish stopped clocks.

      To me, macro is *entertainment* because it doesn't move anything. Sentiment moves things, and you can see the sentiment in a chart without following the news. So while Beary gets on my nerves, you combine that with more noise about housing, which doesn't matter, and I guess I just snapped! LOL
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    • Tue Jan 2nd 18:02 PM
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      Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!
      All that macro stuff is garbage. Micro the companies from a fundamental and technical perspective, keep a technical eye of the indices, and you never need to worry about the "economy."

      That eco-babble is just noise when it comes to making money in the markets. Where's the TRADE in any of that stuff? When it doesn't present a trade, it's smoke in a mirror .. . GDP, the consumer, housing, who cares! There are STOCKS to screen!

      BOOYAH!

      Name the last specific trade-able idea you got from anything Beary Ritholtz writes.

      View article »
    • Tue Jan 2nd 17:18 PM
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      Housing: You Call This a Bottom?!
      Who gives a rodent's buttocks about "housing?" The bottom in housing STOCKS is behind us already.
      View article »