NO DooDahs
Loading...
Symbols:
Loading...
Symbols:
Hedge Fund Jobs
Job Seekers: Search jobs by category, get job alerts by email or live feed, apply online See full list of jobs »
Employers: See all recruitment options, get applications online or by email Post a job »
Trading Center
- Free E-Newsletters
- About Seeking Alpha
- About Us
- Contact Us
- What's New
- Readers Feedback
- Advertise With Us
- Contributors
- Contribute an Article
- Feature Your Book
- Our Contributors
- Anonymous Contributions
- Dispute an Article?
- Legal
- Terms of Use
- Privacy
- Copyright
Latest Comments185 Comments
Delusional Raging Bulls?
Both these cats are frozen perma-bears. I would be surprised to find that either of them had EVER expressed outright optimism for the overall stock market.
Sentiment and Insider Selling Suggest Coming Market Weakness
Now, use your site and tell me if the buy/sell for Dec '06 is significantly different from any other December. Lots of reasons to sell at YE.
Hussman basically recycled a piece from a couple of years ago for this. View his archives and you'll see an identical, older piece written in December ...
Sentiment and Insider Selling Suggest Coming Market Weakness
You might want to, instead of comparing "latest figures" to "latest 8-week average" - compare the 8-week average from this time this year to this time previous years, especially if you can get data going back to the 1990's.
Sentiment and Insider Selling Suggest Coming Market Weakness
It's almost a classic case of "how to lie with statistics." You state that 71% of them are "bullish," which is bullspit. 71% of them expect a nominally "positive" return, but the majority of them expect that the return on equities will be below the return on CASH. If you think a projection of equities returning the same as cash is "bullish" you really should have another think coming. A correct perspective on "bullish" for equities is a year above the norm; "bearish" a year below the norm; and "neutral" a year around the norm. From that correct perspective, the survey is bearish.
Once you throw out the obviously biased perma-bulls and perma-bears, and look at the analysts who don’t show a ridiculously consistent slant, and remove the analysts from the 80 that didn't participate in previous years, you have 49 analysts remaining. It emerges that these remaining analysts are looking at 2007 with a more bearish perspective than they had for either 2005 or 2006.
For those 49: the average projected gain is lower; the lowest projection for 2007 is below the lowest for either 2005 or 2006; and none of them is willing to take a stake on 2007 being any stronger than +13.8%, while you had two projecting over +20% in 2005 and three projecting over +15% in 2006. Lower average projection, lower low projection, and a lower high projection.
Pfizer Hikes Dividend More Than Expected
healthcare.seekingalph...
6% in three weeks is a no-brainer trade for a big name brand blue chip on bad news. Perfect entry for a buy-and-holder, too.
$29 is a multi-year high, which would attract some momentum buyers. The key resistance is $28.
XM or Sirius? Why Not Both?
Seriously, if we separate the "cool technology of tomorrow" from the companies involved, there is a profound risk that both of these companies could wind up bankrupt, and the technology would still be viable, and good, and some other company will wind up being a multibagger when it obtains the FCC licenses. Or, perhaps private equity will step in during their bankruptcy plans.
There is no doubt that terrestrial radio WON'T go up 1500%. There is some doubt that satellite radio MIGHT go down 100%. I would (and have, actually!) take terrestrial radio for a trade and a value play before touching XMSR or SIRI, although (disclosure) I have shorted SIRI before …
The Psychology of the Herd
The Bloomers consensus of 12 only calls for an 8% gain, which is below the historical average, and even though all twelve called for some gain, two of them placed it at less than 3% for the year, and only one had the temerity to predict an above-average year (14.4%). Median, mean, and modal annual returns on the market index are all pretty much 12% and 15%+ returns happen about 4 years out of ten. The Bloomers group of 12 isn't especially bullish in my opinion ... wake me when a consensus estimate is above 12% or so, I'll start buying puts or selling calls.
Some of your readers are having trouble wrapping their heads around what's bullish and what's bearish. Let me 'splain.
If I told you that equities would end the year of 2007 at 1500, that is BEARISH. The return is 1500-1422 = 78, which is 78/1422 = 5.5%, does that sound like a bull call? Frickin' money markets make near that with no risk.
Get the picture?
Who's gonna buy equities with that kind of return? It downright dipspit stoopid to call any projection of gains "bullish" when those gain projections are so low (3%? 5%?) that an investor is better served by Treasury notes or money markets.
1500 = bearish.
Market returns are double digit on average. The S&P 500 going from 17.05 to 1420 in 37 years is 12.7% compounded. The Dow going from 252 to 12400 in 37 years is 11.1% compounded. Predicting a return that is half the fricking average is BEARISH.
Now, on the other hand, it would be "business as usual" to get a return of 10-13%. So a BULLISH call should be significantly ABOVE the typical return.
Hence my comment, earlier. 1500 = bearish, 1600 = neutral, 1700 = bullish.
Sentiment is bearish, amongst bloggers, the Bloomers survey, and the BusinessWeek survey. Everyone is expecting the market to post lower-than-average returns. What does bearish sentiment imply?
CPI Numbers Don't Square With Reality - Market To Climb Anyway
The total liquidity provided by the retail trader is probably very small compared to institutions. Make that probably very very small. So I seriously doubt that it's a "joy mill" fueled by bored day traders ...
This market move is not unusual at all when viewed in the broader context of 56 years of history. 10-15% in one year, mostly comprised of the last six months' move? No big deal, happens alot, actually.
CPI Numbers Don't Square With Reality - Market To Climb Anyway
Other than people parking money for income purposes, there is no such thing as an "investor" - if your intent is to buy for appreciation of the underlying asset price, you are a TRADER. Regardless of how long your anticipated holding period is. People who trade over longer time frames and egotistically call themselves "investors" tend to ignore price action that is below their time thresholds, and they do this at their own peril.
I'm No Perma-Anything
I don’t know who the heck Barry is trying to fool, here. He IS a permabear where the broader markets are concerned; a bullish call on a sector doesn't disqualify his permabearishness. Read the article he linked to!
"… my macroeconomic model shows some real problems by mid- to late 2005. That's not specific to semiconductors -- it's more a [question] of, how will the economy keep going once the "pig is through the python," once all of the tax and interest-rate stimulus are gone? With higher interest rates, increased commodity prices, raised taxes regardless of who wins in November and the stimulus fading, why will the recovery keep expanding?
Longer term, I think the semiconductor cycle can remain somewhat insulated from the broader economy. As long as demand for iPods, laptops and phones remains robust, semiconductors should do well. It would take the economy to grind to a full stop to derail the semiconductor cycle here."
So here is Barry, in August 2004, with the S&P 500 at 1075 – saying that semis would be insulated from the larger economy and that there would be real problems in a year. He was bearish at just about the perfect buying time!!!!!
To properly diagnose perma-bearism, one needs to see the patient's opinions as written at major market turning points. During the best buying markets of the last few years – April 2003, July 2004, October 2005, and August 2006 – Barry was bearish.
Trader Tim is like that, too. Always calling for a broad market crash, but occasionally pointing to one or two bullish calls on a stock to say, "hey look at me, I'm not a Perma-Bear!" Kinda silly, rather like Abby Cohen claiming she's not a Perma-Bull because she once downgraded a stock … to neutral.
Barry! Wanna REALLY show you're not a perma-bear? Link to some writings where you expressed outright optimism for stocks IN GENERAL, at or near the major turning points of the last four years. Then maybe you'll get some non-perma-bear cred. Some of those bullish articles from 2002 would make good links.
I'm No Perma-Anything
Pfizer Stops Cholesterol Drug Trial Over Deaths
Lessee, down 15% at the open and down 10% at the close, 90 divided by 85 is 5.9% gain in 30 minutes, anyone that had access to their computer yesterday should have margined themselves silly! Unfortunately I didn't have access yesterday ...
But I do today, and no one can convince me that torcetrapib's failure is worth a 10% discount on future earnings through perpetuity. Can you say "fallen angel?"
Also, I tend to salivate when I see huge gaps and huge volume, and my theory is to follow the day's direction and not the gap's direction for a quick hitting trade. Combine that with the above, and I would make a bull case for PFE here.
Pfizer Failed: So What?
The real story here is that the news made for an excellent day trade and also for an excellent longer-term value play!
Lessee, down 15% at the open and down 10% at the close, 90 divided by 85 is 5.9% gain in 30 minutes, anyone that had access to their computer yesterday should have margined themselves silly! Unfortunately I didn't have access yesterday ...
But I do today, and no one can convince me that torcetrapib's failure is worth a 10% discount on future earnings through perpetuity. Can you say "fallen angel?"
Also, I tend to salivate when I see huge gaps and huge volume, and my theory is to follow the day's direction and not the gap's direction for a quick hitting trade. Combine that with the above, and I would make a bull case for PFE here.
Deconstructing Mastercard
Disclosure: I'm long from around 70. When it rolls over (eventually), I will be short from wherever it does so.
REITs vs. Homebuilders -- Not What You Think
Regardless, it's a simple fact that RWR, a REIT ETF, regardless of its composition, has shown considerable outperformance over the broader market in terms of appreciation. This is not a new trend, it is a trend that goes back for several years and was unaffected - totally unaffected - by the collapse of homebuilding stocks. As long as the price is going up, shorting it is stepping in front of a moving train. It would seem to me that going from 80 to 90 in two months would outweigh the difference in yield from money markets to dividends.
Are you still short them?
Currently I am not long RWR, but I have a couple of positions near their stops and am considering RWR as a replacement. Been 100% long for quite a while ...