PrudentMan, CFA

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  • Positive ratings +39
  • Negative ratings -11
  • Net rating +28 or 78 %
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    • Wed Nov 26th 07:21 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      The Failure of TARP and the Government's Solution
      Government, especially the Fed, have proven they are part of the problem and are clueless about the solution. Like FDR in the thirties, where he turned a recession into a depression, the government is giving virtually everyone the idea that they will bail them out of their stupid, greedy mistakes. That, like FDR's CCC Camps, WPA, etc. exacerbate the problem instead of letting the Free Markets do what the do best: Self Correct?

      This is all political hogwash! And, it has done more to set the economy back then add anything positive. If the money markets were frozen let them thaw on their own. The Free Market allows losers, thankfully.

      I imagine few readers lived during the Depression as I did and so the destruction of self-respect, incentive and pride that FDR's polices resulted in. Who know where this country would be if Hitler didn't invade Poland. But one thing I am pretty sure of: We would be the over-consumptive country that we are. Hopefully this comeuppance will cure that deadly disease.
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    • Tue Nov 25th 15:41 PM
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      Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      Oil Price Decline Bad News for Future Supplies
      Need and Editor!
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    • Tue Nov 25th 08:45 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Infrastructure, Oil, Alt Energy ETFs: Get Ready for the Obama Effect
      Hardly a good sample. I have some "dogs" that did better than those etfs because of short covering.

      I note the author failed to state how they performed since he recommended them.
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    • Mon Nov 24th 16:06 PM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      As a Discounting Mechanism, the Market Will Rebound Before the Economy
      A discounting mechanism? Real estate topped in 2006 and the derivative bust has been hanging around for fifteen years. What was it discounting at 14000 a boom while we were entering a recession?

      How sophomoric! Like people like this on the other side of my trades.
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    • Mon Nov 24th 11:02 AM
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      Rating: +2 -1
      Commented on:
      The Sun Is Shining on Wall Street
      Wow! What are you smoking? What is Obama's experience in finance or anything else but politics and government sponsored work? He has never been in court, like Bill and Hillary yet alone deal with crisis. This time he can't pull a Clinton and sweep the problems under the rug while the media looks the other way.

      Wave the wand and you have 2.5 million jobs. Like FDR, the government is exacerbating the problems rather than solving them. And like FDR, who was bailed out by Hitler's invasion of Poland and not any of his policies, he is ignoring the "Forgotten Man", the taxpayer.

      Haven't we had enough of these "smart" guys with little or no real world experience? If there was a terrorist attack at the Harvard/Yale game on Saturday all of these frat guys would be toast.

      Obama should put "Joe the Plumber" in his economic package as he has more smarts on the economics than any of his limousine liberals.
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    • Mon Nov 24th 08:52 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Valuations Today: More Pessimistic than During the Great Depression
      The markets dropped in 1929 because of no margin requirements. The markets, starting in Feb. of 2007, showed structural problems due to over leverage. The difference is that more companies and individuals are heavily in debt to date.

      Until we have limitations on credit, as we had decades ago, we will continue to see these boom and bust cycles.Individuals and business must (starting with our grade school educational systems) understand that they cannot spend their unrealistic future income.

      We could incentivize this by removing taxes on saving and interest income and remove the deduction of interest expenses. This would force companies to quickly remove debt from their balance sheets and incentivize individuals to save and have equity in their assets.
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    • Mon Nov 24th 08:37 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oh What a Tangled Web We Weave in Market Headlines
      There isn't much news today only opinions. Even financial statements are just guesses.

      I hope anyone trading on sound bites understands this is not investing.
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    • Mon Nov 24th 08:26 AM
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      Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup Bailout: Stand Up and Cheer or Cower in Fear?
      Break them up.

      Introduce a new era Glass-Steagall bill.

      Stop the madness of leverage.

      Bring back the uptick rule.

      Use inductive reasoning to determine the causative factors that created the mess (which are obvious to even a casual observer) and make the necessary changes in regulations necessary to curtail any such future activity.

      Prevent brokerage operators from being investment adviser or mutual fund owners because of the conflicts of interest. The "China Wall" is a sieve.

      Bar Robert Rubin from anything to do with financial policy. He's smart, powerful, greedy, slick and without conscience.

      Forget the ridiculous theory of "too big to fail". Countries have failed! Germany, the third strongest economy in the world failed. If a business fails entrepreneurs with a better business plan will bridge the breach and hire the workers laid off. The auto industry put the horse and buggy works out of one job and got them better ones.

      Break up AIG. The parts are worth more than its whole. There are many investors who would like to purchase those parts and a bidding process would quickly determine "market" value. Same is true for Citi or any other business.

      For fifty years (1933-1983) we didn't have these crazy problems so, to make things easy, revert to what we did in those days. Worked well for me and the country, especially investors. What we have shown in the recent two decades is that all change is not for the better.

      I wish Obama well in his on the job training but it is the non-term-limited Congress that will be calling the tune in Washington. He has that problem and the Clintonites (change?) standing behind him, knife in hand, waiting to retake the throne they believe is rightly theirs.

      If Obama does what he says he is going to do in Afghanistan, pouring in troops like the Soviets did, he will have nothing but headaches and be a one term president. Iraq's terrain is nothing like Afghanistan's and, though the media will give him a cover as they did with Kennedy in Vietnam, he will learn quickly that the best we can expect in Afghanistan is containment and support of the tribal chiefs.
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    • Mon Nov 24th 07:27 AM
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      Rating: +1 -1
      Commented on:
      Pop and Drop For DJIA Today?
      Sophistry.

      The market moved Friday on the perception that Obama may come out of the closet and get involved (not getting out of the Senate so he doesn't have to vote on anything difficult) by finally name a Secretary of Treasury. He was running for president for two years telling us he had all the answers and enough fools believed him so he certainly should have known who his Cabinet would be especially the economic end as the problem is eighteen months old. Nice to see the guys who gave us Enron, Tyco, etc. on the job to clean up the mess they started.

      This combined with options expiration caught the naked call and stock shorts in a trap (the third time this year and one would think they would learn) powering the market.

      This market is going nowhere until we find out all of the toxic assets and determine their liquidation value/

      Too big to fail is too big and the concept is absurd. Was Packard Motors, American Motors, Studebaker, et al too big to fail.

      Throw away your charts and start over. It's a new ball game even for a fifty year investment pro like myself.

      Adapt of fail has been true since the world began. If you don't like it become a postal worker.
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    • Wed Nov 19th 09:22 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Can Central Bankers Prevent a Great Depression?
      The Fed (we are not supposed to have a "Central Bank" as it was designed to be independent) usually exacerbates the problem because they bend (see Greenspan) to Congress, owned by Wall Street, and make stupid economic errors. So, the answer is No!
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    • Wed Nov 19th 09:18 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Isn't Deflation a Good Thing?
      The question should be "stagflation"... You may have temporary price declines due to temporary demand destruction but you can't have deflation while the money printer is running 24/7.

      As we know from our economic history, it is politically difficult to sop up all this excess money. With the House of Representatives incumbents running every two years they (a good reason for Congressional Term Limits) put tremendous pressure on the "Central Bank" (which is supposed to be independent and fifty years would have opposed the moniker) to keep the spickets of monetary supply flowing.

      It is inflation we must concern ourselves with. Deflation is self correction unless our Administration makes the mistakes of FDR by exacerbating the problems by destroying incentive and then only bailed out by Hitler's invasion of Poland, contrary to what the historical revisonists say.
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    • Mon Nov 17th 08:26 AM
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      Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Why Paulson and Bernanke's Plans Don't Work
      It is factually wrong to think the current economic situation is even close to 1929. Actually 1932, the year I was born, was terrible and FDR had very little to do with getting us out of the soup. Actually, his policies extended the depression by implying that things were so bad they needed Uncle Sap to get the economy going. Sound familiar? If the truth be told, Hitler's invasion of Poland had more to ending the depression than FDR. That was the first time anyone in our family good get a full time job.

      This economy is stronger than that of the seventies. We also had economic problems in the early nineties that I personally thought were worse than now. Real estate prices were plummeting. The Free Market corrected and even made a clueless Clinton appear to me an economic genius. The luck of the Irish.
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    • Mon Nov 17th 08:14 AM
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      Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
      In my fifty years of professional investment experience, my intuition is that governments should be minimal and usually are part of the problem instead of the solution. It is obvious in this "crisis", which is actually not as serious as the economic situation of the seventies when the people of Kansas had to bail out New York City, calls for less government intrusion rather than more.

      When people are told that any government agency is going to solve their problems those people have a lack of a sense of reality. In the case of derivatives and leverage the government could have easily ameliorated the risks by raising rates and Congress should have given the SEC the tools they need though I believe they already have those tools but, for political reasons, failed to take away the punch bowl. After all, the member of the House of Representatives run for reelection every two years and they like bull markets and never ever want to decrease the money supply.

      If the Administration would have announced in 2007 that the Free Market would have to clean up any messes it got itself into the markets would have corrected accordingly and quickly. Now everyone who made a stupid, greedy or both mistake is waiting for some government organization to bail them out. The line continues to lengthen and the G-20, beings a political organization, is clueless as to the ability of markets to correct their own mistakes.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 15:37 PM
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      Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      Can Obama's Policies Revitalize Traditional Oil ETFs?
      Drill baby, drill is now print, print money now.

      If economies could grow because of governments increasing money supply and not productivity there would be no poor nations.
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    • Wed Nov 12th 09:22 AM
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      Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Obama and the Market: Now Through January
      Predicting economic growth and human nature with mathematical formula results in Long Term Capital Management.

      As Ludwig Von Mises stated decades ago, econometrics is only useful in helping one see where we were and is counter-productive because it gives false security and interferes with sound analysis. In other words it is voodoo science.
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