PrudentMan, CFA
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Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know Newsby SA Editor Rachael Granby- Bank trio becomes duo. Wells Fargo (WFC) will become the largest U.S. bank by branches with its bid for Wachovia (WB), after Citigroup (C) withdrew from compromise negotiations late yesterday on concerns about the quality of some of Wachovia's assets. Wells Fargo, with a bid valued at $11.4B, expects the purchase to be completed by the end of the year, and denies it will have to absorb assets shakier than originally thought.
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Wednesday, October 15.Bullish Calls:Continental Resources (CLR) -- "This is a remarkable decline. All of the high quality ones are down so much, I can't go against it. This is where you pull the trigger.
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Annaly Mortgage (NLY) -- I think this is a business model that needs to borrow money. Definitively do not buy."
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Latest Comments117 Comments
The Failure of TARP and the Government's Solution
This is all political hogwash! And, it has done more to set the economy back then add anything positive. If the money markets were frozen let them thaw on their own. The Free Market allows losers, thankfully.
I imagine few readers lived during the Depression as I did and so the destruction of self-respect, incentive and pride that FDR's polices resulted in. Who know where this country would be if Hitler didn't invade Poland. But one thing I am pretty sure of: We would be the over-consumptive country that we are. Hopefully this comeuppance will cure that deadly disease.
Oil Price Decline Bad News for Future Supplies
Infrastructure, Oil, Alt Energy ETFs: Get Ready for the Obama Effect
I note the author failed to state how they performed since he recommended them.
As a Discounting Mechanism, the Market Will Rebound Before the Economy
How sophomoric! Like people like this on the other side of my trades.
The Sun Is Shining on Wall Street
Wave the wand and you have 2.5 million jobs. Like FDR, the government is exacerbating the problems rather than solving them. And like FDR, who was bailed out by Hitler's invasion of Poland and not any of his policies, he is ignoring the "Forgotten Man", the taxpayer.
Haven't we had enough of these "smart" guys with little or no real world experience? If there was a terrorist attack at the Harvard/Yale game on Saturday all of these frat guys would be toast.
Obama should put "Joe the Plumber" in his economic package as he has more smarts on the economics than any of his limousine liberals.
Valuations Today: More Pessimistic than During the Great Depression
Until we have limitations on credit, as we had decades ago, we will continue to see these boom and bust cycles.Individuals and business must (starting with our grade school educational systems) understand that they cannot spend their unrealistic future income.
We could incentivize this by removing taxes on saving and interest income and remove the deduction of interest expenses. This would force companies to quickly remove debt from their balance sheets and incentivize individuals to save and have equity in their assets.
Oh What a Tangled Web We Weave in Market Headlines
I hope anyone trading on sound bites understands this is not investing.
Citigroup Bailout: Stand Up and Cheer or Cower in Fear?
Introduce a new era Glass-Steagall bill.
Stop the madness of leverage.
Bring back the uptick rule.
Use inductive reasoning to determine the causative factors that created the mess (which are obvious to even a casual observer) and make the necessary changes in regulations necessary to curtail any such future activity.
Prevent brokerage operators from being investment adviser or mutual fund owners because of the conflicts of interest. The "China Wall" is a sieve.
Bar Robert Rubin from anything to do with financial policy. He's smart, powerful, greedy, slick and without conscience.
Forget the ridiculous theory of "too big to fail". Countries have failed! Germany, the third strongest economy in the world failed. If a business fails entrepreneurs with a better business plan will bridge the breach and hire the workers laid off. The auto industry put the horse and buggy works out of one job and got them better ones.
Break up AIG. The parts are worth more than its whole. There are many investors who would like to purchase those parts and a bidding process would quickly determine "market" value. Same is true for Citi or any other business.
For fifty years (1933-1983) we didn't have these crazy problems so, to make things easy, revert to what we did in those days. Worked well for me and the country, especially investors. What we have shown in the recent two decades is that all change is not for the better.
I wish Obama well in his on the job training but it is the non-term-limited Congress that will be calling the tune in Washington. He has that problem and the Clintonites (change?) standing behind him, knife in hand, waiting to retake the throne they believe is rightly theirs.
If Obama does what he says he is going to do in Afghanistan, pouring in troops like the Soviets did, he will have nothing but headaches and be a one term president. Iraq's terrain is nothing like Afghanistan's and, though the media will give him a cover as they did with Kennedy in Vietnam, he will learn quickly that the best we can expect in Afghanistan is containment and support of the tribal chiefs.
Pop and Drop For DJIA Today?
The market moved Friday on the perception that Obama may come out of the closet and get involved (not getting out of the Senate so he doesn't have to vote on anything difficult) by finally name a Secretary of Treasury. He was running for president for two years telling us he had all the answers and enough fools believed him so he certainly should have known who his Cabinet would be especially the economic end as the problem is eighteen months old. Nice to see the guys who gave us Enron, Tyco, etc. on the job to clean up the mess they started.
This combined with options expiration caught the naked call and stock shorts in a trap (the third time this year and one would think they would learn) powering the market.
This market is going nowhere until we find out all of the toxic assets and determine their liquidation value/
Too big to fail is too big and the concept is absurd. Was Packard Motors, American Motors, Studebaker, et al too big to fail.
Throw away your charts and start over. It's a new ball game even for a fifty year investment pro like myself.
Adapt of fail has been true since the world began. If you don't like it become a postal worker.
Can Central Bankers Prevent a Great Depression?
Isn't Deflation a Good Thing?
As we know from our economic history, it is politically difficult to sop up all this excess money. With the House of Representatives incumbents running every two years they (a good reason for Congressional Term Limits) put tremendous pressure on the "Central Bank" (which is supposed to be independent and fifty years would have opposed the moniker) to keep the spickets of monetary supply flowing.
It is inflation we must concern ourselves with. Deflation is self correction unless our Administration makes the mistakes of FDR by exacerbating the problems by destroying incentive and then only bailed out by Hitler's invasion of Poland, contrary to what the historical revisonists say.
Why Paulson and Bernanke's Plans Don't Work
This economy is stronger than that of the seventies. We also had economic problems in the early nineties that I personally thought were worse than now. Real estate prices were plummeting. The Free Market corrected and even made a clueless Clinton appear to me an economic genius. The luck of the Irish.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
When people are told that any government agency is going to solve their problems those people have a lack of a sense of reality. In the case of derivatives and leverage the government could have easily ameliorated the risks by raising rates and Congress should have given the SEC the tools they need though I believe they already have those tools but, for political reasons, failed to take away the punch bowl. After all, the member of the House of Representatives run for reelection every two years and they like bull markets and never ever want to decrease the money supply.
If the Administration would have announced in 2007 that the Free Market would have to clean up any messes it got itself into the markets would have corrected accordingly and quickly. Now everyone who made a stupid, greedy or both mistake is waiting for some government organization to bail them out. The line continues to lengthen and the G-20, beings a political organization, is clueless as to the ability of markets to correct their own mistakes.
Can Obama's Policies Revitalize Traditional Oil ETFs?
If economies could grow because of governments increasing money supply and not productivity there would be no poor nations.
Obama and the Market: Now Through January
As Ludwig Von Mises stated decades ago, econometrics is only useful in helping one see where we were and is counter-productive because it gives false security and interferes with sound analysis. In other words it is voodoo science.