PrudentMan, CFA

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  • Positive ratings +39
  • Negative ratings -11
  • Net rating +28 or 78 %
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    • Mon Sep 22nd 17:32 PM
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      Commented on:
      Crude Oil Back Above $110; Trading Halted (Briefly)
      I home it is fundamentals but I don't know what made such a big change since Friday, fundamentally.

      Hopefully, markets will become rational both on the upside and the downside but markets are what they are and no one is forced to play the game.

      I won't and I don't.
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 14th 17:09 PM
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      Big Week for ETFs
      Proof that all the volume is caused by program traders who have been dominating the markets for year and care nothing about investing.
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    • Thu Sep 11th 15:43 PM
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      The Nature of Risk
      There is no way to all the risks and to think statistical analysis can do it is plain sophistry. Ask the guys at LTCM and the people who went to work at the Twin Tower seven years ago.

      To use statistics to try and understand risk is lazy. Considering that human nature is impossible to explain, what makes anyone think a computer can make sense of what they are going to do. Statistics can measure some risks but it is my experience that one should not put much confidence, let alone wealth, in anyone trying to predict using them.

      Good old fundamentals combined with technical analysis, intellect, skill and guts will trump any statistician, none of whom I ever heard of making big money in markets for any substantial period of time. Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.

      The title of my Graduate School thesis decades ago was "Beta is Bull Shit". It is like telling one what was in last weeks newspaper.
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    • Thu Sep 11th 11:06 AM
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      More on ETFs and the Trading Landscape
      ETF's, though good trading vehicles, are an investment analysts' headache. One or two companies, because of the open-end, flexible nature of etfs, can affect the price of other stocks in the security.

      Although I have made some money in ETFs, as an analyst I detest them. But, I didn't last fifty years in this business without being adaptable.
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    • Mon Sep 1st 17:49 PM
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      Hedge Fund Hell
      Where is the "Hedge" in Hedge Funds? These aren't hedge funds. Anyone who thinks they are should be buying T Bills. These are nothing but over-leveraged crap shooters and like all crap shooter keep playing until they lose everything.

      I just happened on this article by accident, as I asked to be removed from the e-mail list, as I usually disregard anyone who claims to be ha hedge fund manager.

      Many years ago, when I started as a professional, we actually did hedge our bets.
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    • Sun Aug 31st 18:29 PM
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      Wal-Mart vs. Target: A Better Starting Point
      Earning per share Trumps all this intellectual exercise. Nice but a small part of the story.
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    • Sun Aug 17th 12:29 PM
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      Will Sprint's Instinct Go Satellite with Sirius XM?
      Good presentation.

      Thanks!
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    • Sun Aug 17th 11:22 AM
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      5 Potential Buyout Targets in Biotech - Barron's
      The patent expiration problems of large pharma are well know. This article would have added value if the specific reasons why the target companies were potential takeovers would have given substance to it.

      In this day where primary research is virtually missing and everyone seems to be peddling their portfolio, it would be refreshing to get sound reasoning backed by substantive facts rather than mere opinions which are worth exactly what you pay for them.
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    • Sat Aug 16th 09:28 AM
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      The End Run Around the Operating System Is Under Way
      Nothing like competition.

      "Constructive Destruction" provides great product.

      Will the change come from the entitlement-laden American worker of for some genius from another country who went to one of our "prestigious"... universities on a grant or scholarship from the American taxpayer so he or she can take their expertise to the homeland and exploit America's misplaced largess?
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 14th 09:53 AM
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      Just How Correlated Are Oil and Equities?
      Want to be a loser in markets, use statisticst extrapolate or correlate. The physical science don't work in the social sciences and Wall Street has been conned by academia for decades with this voodoo. Ask the geniuses at LTCM! Sorry, but you still have to do fundamental research. Some even do primary along with secondary, but most analysts want their computers to do all the work.
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    • Fri Aug 8th 11:31 AM
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      Sprint Fights Back
      We were better off when T was busted up. This Congress sells itself to the highest bidder.

      Time for Congressional Term Limits so that we can have more political and business competition and presurve the Free Enterprise System from predatory capitalism.
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    • Sun Jul 20th 10:30 AM
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      Microsoft Unencouraging
      One would get the impression this company is faltering in a booming economy.

      It's a company that is too big to make meaningful growth as the growth will be at the margins.

      Virtually no one has made any real money investing in MSFT in almost a decade. It is a good example for budding security analysts of when a great company reaches maturity.
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    • Sun Jul 20th 09:59 AM
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      Does Al Gore Finally Get It?
      Read Richard Nixon's "State of the Union" speech of January 31, 1971. He was ahead of all of them.

      With this and him getting us out of the Kennedy/Johnson War in Vietnam, the one world government had to get him out of office for supporting his friends regarding a petty, silly breakin which only resulted in getting a list of Washington hookers.
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    • Fri Jul 18th 09:19 AM
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      SEC Shorting Restrictions: Are Some Banks Being Set Up?
      What is interesting is that ten of the nineteen or 53% are Foreign Banks!

      Then you have the GSE's so actually 60% of the Commercial Banks protected by The SEC are controlled Foreign Bank shareholders.

      How blatantly bias can the SEC be? If they did their job for the past ten years instead of being controlled by the "Street", which actually they always have been but not so blatantly, none of this would be necessary.

      For your readers who are not aware of this, the Federal Reserve Board does not examine banks. The Comptroller of the Currency (Treasury), FDIC (which is a government corporation financed by bank insurance premiums, and the various state regulators. So when you see the media and politicians complaining about the Fed's audit of banks (banks do have "independent"... auditors, which is a farce) they patently do not know of what they speak.
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    • Tue Jul 8th 11:13 AM
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      Bolt Technology: Charged for Growth
      BOLT only negative, that I can see, is their refusal to meet with analysts. Consequently, this raises questions in the eyes of institutional investors as it is required that they have research documentation to support taking positions.

      For the individual who refers to "this market environment" and obviously is a trader, who seldom win, I have been a professional investor for close to fifty hears and if you think this is a tough market you haven't been around. Oil prices will reach a price which rations the demand and the real estate market has already done all of the damage it can do. Of course, there will be many more problems but that is where we get opportunities to invest. Trading is a losers game only the "house" wins.

      Fifty years and I am still at.
      View article »